Brown University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.38 (fleet 3.22) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.05 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 60–48 (56%) as crew 24–8 (75%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 8 | 49–39 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 10–6 | — |
| Fall 2022 | 1 | 1–3 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | — | 20–3 |
| Fall 2021 | 1 | — | 4–5 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 13 graded regattas (138 matches) the record is 82–56 against 75.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+6.6). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 17 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-28 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.73 | 2.86 | 4–6 | 3.7 | +0.13 | 0.0 | 56% |
| 2024-04-13 | NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy | skipper | 2.76 | 2.10 | 6–9 | 7.7 | −0.66 | 0.8 | 92% |
| 2024-04-06 | Yale Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.69 | 3.54 | 10–5 | 7.5 | +0.85 | 1.5 | 12% |
| 2024-03-30 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.55 | 2.98 | 7–7 | 5.9 | +0.43 | 0.3 | 35% |
| 2024-03-23 | The Duplin Trophy | skipper | 2.58 | 1.34 | 4–5 | 5.7 | −1.24 | 1.6 | 98% |
| 2024-03-16 | Women's SNETR | skipper | 2.61 | 2.97 | 8–4 | 7.3 | +0.36 | 0.2 | 45% |
| 2024-03-09 | Jen Harris Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.71 | 3.39 | 6–2 | 5.2 | +0.67 | 0.4 | 41% |
| 2024-03-02 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.52 | 4.50 | 4–1 | 2.6 | +1.98 | 1.8 | 16% |
| 2023-03-18 | Brown Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.35 | 3.01 | 8–2 | 7.1 | +0.66 | 0.4 | 37% |
| 2023-03-11 | Franny Charles Women’s Team Race Regatta | skipper | 2.44 | 1.40 | 2–4 | 3.1 | −1.05 | 0.8 | 95% |
| 2022-10-23 | Franklin Lane Trophy | skipper | 2.45 | 1.09 | 1–3 | 2.0 | −1.36 | 1.0 | 96% |
| 2022-04-02 | Jumbo Team Race | crew | 2.31 | 4.30 | 18–3 | 12.2 | +1.99 | 7.9 | <1% |
| 2021-10-30 | Dave Perry Team Race | crew | 2.84 | 2.20 | 4–5 | 5.3 | −0.64 | 0.6 | 90% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 67% | — |
| Women's SNETR Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Women's New England Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.0 | 3.31 |
| Women's Dinghy National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 3 | 7.0 | 4.15 |
| Jen Harris Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 73% | — |
| ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Eastern Women's National Semi-final Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.2 | 2.88 |
| The Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 42% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 3.48 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.4 | 4.16 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.9 | 1.99 |
| NEISA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 4.2 | 4.49 |
| ICSA Match Race National Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| 2023 Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 12 | 2.7 | — |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Rhody the Riveter Women's Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.6 | 1.46 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 9.0 | 2.25 |
| Franny Charles Women’s Team Race Regatta Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Emily Wick Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.2 | 3.04 |
| Brown Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 16 | 75% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale FJ Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.5 | 3.34 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 9.9 | 3.16 |
| Sister Esther Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.5 | 3.79 |
| The 25th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.9 | 3.03 |
| Franklin Lane Trophy | Skipper | TR | 4 | 25% | — |
| CC Invite Trophy | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.9 | 1.82 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Rhody the Riveter Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.8 | 2.26 |
| MIT Team Race Invite | Crew | TR | 8 | 75% | — |
| Jumbo Team Race | Crew | TR | 21 | 86% | — |
| George Morris Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 6.2 | 3.11 |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 6.7 | 3.31 |
| Connecticut Valley Dinghy Championship Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.2 | 2.84 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.4 | 2.32 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.0 | 2.78 |
| Oberg Trophy | Skipper | C | 6 | 9.8 | 2.44 |
| The 24th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 7.3 | 3.23 |
| The George Warren Smith Trophy | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.1 | 2.21 |
| Dave Perry Team Race | Crew | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
