Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy

HostBrown
Date03/30/2024
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	14–2
2	Stanford University	Cardinal	12–4
3	Dartmouth College	Big Green	10–6
4	Brown University	Bears	9–7
5	Cornell University	Big Red	8–8
6	College of Charleston	Cougars	7–9
7	University of South Florida	Bulls	6–10
8	Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	6–10
9	Tulane University	Green Wave	6–10
10	Harvard University	Crimson	6–10
11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	4–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 23,468 team race matches sailed before 2024-03-30, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 61 of 88 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.574 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.21 ± 0.22: a typical event, more orderly than 23% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.07 school +0.33	Mia Nicolosi / Ximena Escobar 3.60 Carmen Cowles / Carmen Berg 3.72 Emma Cowles / Catherine Cheung 3.40	86%	14–2 (88%)	+0.3
2	Stanford University Cardinal	2	10.58 school +0.39	Hannah Freeman / Grace Austin 3.44 Ellie Harned / Sophie Fisher 3.13 10–3 Michelle Lahrkamp / Shay Wood 3.60 10–3 Ellie Harned / Shay Wood 3.15 2–1 Michelle Lahrkamp / Sophie Fisher 3.59 2–1	78%	12–4 (75%)	−0.4
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	7	9.02 school +0.23	Gray Hemans / Sudi Zhao 3.00 Sarah Young / Madeline Koelbel 2.92 Bella Casaretto / Phoebe Lee 2.84	45%	10–6 (62%)	+2.8
4	Brown University Bears	5	9.13 school +0.21, home +0.41	Katherine Mcnamara / Brianna Ross 2.77 7–5 Charlotte Costikyan / Katherine Majette 2.55 4–5 Brielle Willoughby / Francesca Edmands 3.14 4–3 Brielle Willoughby / Kaitlyn Hamilton 3.13 4–2 Charlotte Costikyan / Francesca Edmands 2.59 3–2 Katherine Mcnamara / Lily Shore 2.75 2–2 Brielle Willoughby / Brianna Ross 3.21 1–2 Katharine Doble / Francesca Edmands 2.73 1–0 Katharine Doble / Katherine Majette 2.70 1–0	47%	9–7 (56%)	+1.5
5	Cornell University Big Red	8	8.13 school −0.15	Winborne Majette / Sophia Pearce 2.95 J.J. Smith / Kit Harned 2.62 Lauren Ehnot / Kate Moran 2.69	43%	8–8 (50%)	+1.2
6	College of Charleston Cougars	4	8.99 school +0.42	Grace Squires / Marina Dryer 2.84 Emma Tallman / Rowan Schanley 3.15 4–6 Fredrikke Foss / Chloe Hudgins 2.56 4–6 Emma Tallman / Clara Murphy 3.06 3–3 Emily Alfortish / Chloe Hudgins 2.68 3–3	62%	7–9 (44%)	−2.9
7	University of South Florida Bulls	11	7.24	Kay Brunsvold / Madisen Hamai 2.75 Emma Shakespeare / Hannah Marsicano 2.40 Kailey Warrior / Kalea Woodard 2.05	24%	6–10 (38%)	+2.2
8	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	10	7.38	Rebecca Schill / Katharine Kurtz 2.32 Kyra Phelan / Holliss Hirsch 2.37 Lauren Russler / Luisa Louchheim 2.69	26%	6–10 (38%)	+1.8
9	Tulane University Green Wave	6	8.24 school +0.08	Ava Anderson / Catherine Anderson 2.54 4–9 Samantha Gardner / Abigail Borggaard 2.94 4–9 Mia Hanes / Mira Herlihy 2.60 4–8 Mia Hanes / Ellie Spearman 2.73 2–2 Ava Anderson / Hope Breslin 2.57 2–1 Samantha Gardner / Lucy Spearman 3.02 2–1	45%	6–10 (38%)	−1.2
10	Harvard University Crimson	3	9.09 school +0.24	Cordelia Burn / Sarra Guezguez 3.09 Sarah Burn / Lily Bartlett 2.88 Zoey Ziskind / Margo Silliman 2.83	64%	6–10 (38%)	−4.2
11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	9	7.63 school +0.10	Brooke Schmelz / Samantha Karlson 3.18 Emma Wang / Shayne Bersin 2.30 Brooke Barry / Mercedes Escandon 2.02 4–11 Brooke Barry / Elliott Chalcraft 1.98 0–1	32%	4–12 (25%)	−1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Dartmouth College	9.02	10.03	10–6	7.2	+1.01	2.0	8%
7	University of South Florida	7.24	8.01	6–10	3.8	+0.77	1.3	14%
8	Bowdoin College	7.38	7.98	6–10	4.2	+0.60	0.8	21%
4	Brown University	9.13	9.65	9–7	7.5	+0.53	0.6	28%
5	Cornell University	8.13	8.51	8–8	6.8	+0.38	0.3	35%
1	Yale University	11.07	11.24	14–2	13.7	+0.17	0.0	60%
2	Stanford University	10.58	10.39	12–4	12.4	−0.19	0.1	75%
11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	7.63	7.25	4–12	5.0	−0.38	0.3	82%
9	Tulane University	8.24	7.86	6–10	7.2	−0.38	0.3	83%
6	College of Charleston	8.99	8.06	7–9	9.9	−0.93	2.0	98%
10	Harvard University	9.09	7.76	6–10	10.2	−1.33	4.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Bella Casaretto	Dartmouth College	2.84	3.85	10–6	7.2	+1.01	2.0	8%
Lauren Russler	Bowdoin College	2.69	3.29	6–10	4.2	+0.60	0.8	21%
Charlotte Costikyan	Brown University	2.55	2.98	7–7	5.9	+0.43	0.3	35%
Winborne Majette	Cornell University	2.95	3.33	8–8	6.8	+0.38	0.3	35%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.72	3.89	14–2	13.7	+0.17	0.0	60%
Emma Cowles	Yale University	3.40	3.57	14–2	13.7	+0.17	0.0	60%
Ellie Harned	Stanford University	3.13	2.95	12–4	12.4	−0.19	0.1	75%
Hannah Freeman	Stanford University	3.44	3.25	12–4	12.4	−0.19	0.1	75%
Brooke Barry	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.02	1.65	4–12	5.0	−0.38	0.3	82%
Ava Anderson	Tulane University	2.54	2.17	6–10	7.2	−0.38	0.3	83%
Mia Hanes	Tulane University	2.60	2.22	6–10	7.2	−0.38	0.3	83%
Fredrikke Foss	College of Charleston	2.56	1.46	4–6	6.2	−1.10	1.7	97%
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	3.09	1.76	6–10	10.2	−1.33	4.1	>99%
Sarah Burn	Harvard University	2.88	1.56	6–10	10.2	−1.33	4.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Brown University	Harvard University	51%
1	2	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	21%	upset
1	3	Tulane University	Bowdoin College	69%
1	4	Yale University	University of South Florida	98%
1	5	Dartmouth College	Stanford University	17%	upset
1	6	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	82%
1	7	Bowdoin College	Cornell University	32%	upset
1	8	Yale University	College of Charleston	89%
1	9	University of South Florida	Harvard University	14%	upset
1	10	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	70%
1	11	Stanford University	Bowdoin College	96%
1	12	Yale University	Brown University	88%
1	13	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	85%
1	14	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	81%
1	15	Dartmouth College	Cornell University	71%
1	16	Stanford University	Tulane University	92%
1	17	Brown University	College of Charleston	54%
1	18	Yale University	Harvard University	88%
1	19	University of South Florida	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	40%	upset
1	20	Dartmouth College	Bowdoin College	84%
1	21	Cornell University	Tulane University	48%	upset
1	22	College of Charleston	Harvard University	48%	upset
1	23	Brown University	University of South Florida	88%
1	24	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	97%
1	25	Stanford University	Cornell University	92%
1	26	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	15%	upset
1	27	Tulane University	College of Charleston	31%	upset
1	28	Yale University	Dartmouth College	89%
1	29	Stanford University	Brown University	82%
1	30	Cornell University	University of South Florida	71%
1	31	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tulane University	36%	upset
1	32	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	48%	upset
1	33	Brown University	Bowdoin College	84%
1	34	Yale University	Cornell University	95%
1	35	Tulane University	University of South Florida	72%
1	36	Stanford University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	95%
1	37	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	50%
1	38	Yale University	Bowdoin College	98%
1	39	Brown University	Tulane University	68%
1	40	Cornell University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	62%
1	41	Stanford University	Harvard University	82%
1	42	Dartmouth College	University of South Florida	86%
1	43	Bowdoin College	College of Charleston	16%	upset
1	44	Brown University	Cornell University	75%
1	45	Yale University	Stanford University	62%
1	46	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	80%
1	47	University of South Florida	Bowdoin College	46%	upset
1	48	College of Charleston	Cornell University	70%
1	49	Harvard University	Tulane University	67%
1	50	Dartmouth College	Brown University	47%	upset
1	51	Stanford University	University of South Florida	97%
1	52	Bowdoin College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	44%	upset
1	53	Cornell University	Harvard University	28%	upset
1	54	Tulane University	Yale University	6%	upset
1	55	Stanford University	College of Charleston	83%
4	56	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	82%
4	57	Brown University	Yale University	13%	upset
4	58	Brown University	Dartmouth College	53%
4	59	Yale University	Stanford University	62%
4	60	Stanford University	Brown University	82%
4	61	Yale University	Dartmouth College	88%
4	83	Stanford University	Brown University	82%
4	84	Yale University	Dartmouth College	88%
4	85	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	82%
4	86	Yale University	Brown University	87%
4	87	Dartmouth College	Brown University	48%	upset
4	88	Yale University	Stanford University	62%
5	62	College of Charleston	Cornell University	70%
5	63	University of South Florida	Tulane University	28%	upset
5	64	Bowdoin College	Harvard University	15%	upset
5	65	Cornell University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	62%
5	66	College of Charleston	Tulane University	68%
5	67	University of South Florida	Bowdoin College	46%	upset
5	68	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	81%
5	69	Cornell University	Tulane University	48%	upset
5	70	College of Charleston	Bowdoin College	83%
5	71	Harvard University	University of South Florida	86%
5	72	Tulane University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	64%
5	73	Cornell University	Bowdoin College	68%
5	74	Harvard University	College of Charleston	53%
5	75	University of South Florida	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	40%	upset
5	76	Bowdoin College	Tulane University	30%	upset
5	77	Harvard University	Cornell University	72%
5	78	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	85%
5	79	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Bowdoin College	56%
5	80	Tulane University	Harvard University	33%	upset
5	81	Cornell University	University of South Florida	71%
5	82	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	College of Charleston	21%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Cardinal	Green	Bears	Red	Cougars	Bulls	Bears	Wave	Crimson	Engineers
Yale University Bulldogs	9–1	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	8–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	9–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	7–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	4–6	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	L	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–7	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	L	W	L
University of South Florida Bulls	3–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	4–6	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	4–6	W	L	L	L	L	W	W	W	✕	L	L
Harvard University Crimson	2–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–8	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Cardinal	Green	Bears
Yale University Bulldogs	5–1	✕	W	W	W
Stanford University Cardinal	4–2	L	✕	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	1–5	L	L	✕	W
Brown University Bears	2–4	L	L	L	✕

Round 5

Team	Rec.	Red	Cougars	Bulls	Bears	Wave	Crimson	Engineers
Cornell University Big Red	4–2	✕	L	W	W	W	L	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–2	W	✕	W	W	W	L	L
University of South Florida Bulls	3–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W
Bowdoin College Polar Bears	2–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	L
Tulane University Green Wave	2–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	4–2	W	W	W	L	L	✕	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–4	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
2	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
3	Green Wave	1-4-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-3-6
4	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
5	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Cardinal	1-5-6
6	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
7	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
8	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
9	Bulls	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6
10	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
11	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Polar Bears	2-4-6
12	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
13	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
14	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
15	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
16	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
17	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
18	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
19	Bulls	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
20	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
21	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Green Wave	1-4-6
22	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
23	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
24	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
25	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
26	Polar Bears	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
27	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
28	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
29	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
30	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
31	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
32	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
33	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
34	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
35	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
36	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
37	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
38	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Polar Bears	3-5-6
39	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
40	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
41	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
42	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
43	Polar Bears	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
44	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
45	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
46	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
47	Bulls	1-2-3	def.	Polar Bears	4-5-6
48	Cougars	1-3-6	def.	Big Red	2-4-5
49	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
50	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
51	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Bulls	1-5-6
52	Polar Bears	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
53	Big Red	1-4-5	def.	Crimson	2-3-6
54	Green Wave	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
55	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
56	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Big Green	4-5-6
57	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Bulldogs	2-5-6
58	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
59	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cardinal	4-5-6
60	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
61	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
83	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
84	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
85	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
86	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
87	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Bears	1-4-6
88	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6
62	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
63	Bulls	1-4-5	def.	Green Wave	2-3-6
64	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Crimson	3-4-5
65	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
66	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
67	Bulls	2-3-4	def.	Polar Bears	1-5-6
68	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
69	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
70	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
71	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
72	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
73	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-6
74	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
75	Bulls	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
76	Polar Bears	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
77	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
78	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
79	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Polar Bears	3-4-5
80	Green Wave	1-3-6	def.	Crimson	2-4-5
81	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
82	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Emma Cowles '25 Mia Nicolosi '25	Carmen Berg '26 Catherine Cheung '24 Ximena Escobar '25
Stanford University	Cardinal	Ellie Harned '26 Hannah Freeman '24 Michelle Lahrkamp '23	Sophie Fisher '26 Shay Wood '27 Grace Austin '24
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bella Casaretto '26 Gray Hemans '25 Sarah Young '25	Phoebe Lee '26 Sudi Zhao '26 Madeline Koelbel '26
Brown University	Bears	Brielle Willoughby '24 Charlotte Costikyan '24 Katharine Doble '26 Katherine Mcnamara '26	Francesca Edmands '25 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26 Brianna Ross '26 Katherine Majette '27 Lily Shore '24
Cornell University	Big Red	J.J. Smith '24 Lauren Ehnot '24 Winborne Majette '27	Kit Harned '27 Kate Moran '27 Sophia Pearce '26
College of Charleston	Cougars	Emily Alfortish '25 Emma Tallman '25 Fredrikke Foss '25 Grace Squires '24	Chloe Hudgins '24 Rowan Schanley '24 Clara Murphy '27 Marina Dryer '26
University of South Florida	Bulls	Emma Shakespeare '24 Kailey Warrior '27 Kay Brunsvold '25	Hannah Marsicano '24 Kalea Woodard '24 Madisen Hamai '26
Bowdoin College	Polar Bears	Kyra Phelan '26 Lauren Russler '26 Rebecca Schill '27	Holliss Hirsch '25 Luisa Louchheim '25 Katharine Kurtz '24
Tulane University	Green Wave	Ava Anderson '27 Mia Hanes '24 Samantha Gardner '27	Hope Breslin '26 Catherine Anderson '26 Ellie Spearman '25 Mira Herlihy '27 Lucy Spearman '25 Abigail Borggaard '24
Harvard University	Crimson	Cordelia Burn '25 Sarah Burn '24 Zoey Ziskind '27	Sarra Guezguez '27 Lily Bartlett '24 Margo Silliman '25
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Barry '26 Brooke Schmelz '25 Emma Wang '27	Mercedes Escandon '25 Elliott Chalcraft '27 Samantha Karlson '25 Shayne Bersin '25

Conditions — 03/30/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 43% · Pressure 1004.3 hPa

Temperature

48°F

↑ 54°F ↓ 36°F

Feels like 39°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.6 kn

avg · max 13.7 kn

Gusts to 28.6 kn

From WNW (284°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover6% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1004.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.09)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.09 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu