Cornell University '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.52 (fleet 3.54) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.04 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 52–69 (43%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 5 | 25–44 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 4 | 25–18 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 2–7 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (121 matches) the record is 52–69 against 54.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-06 | MAISA Open Team Race/Prosser Trophy | skipper | 2.66 | 3.29 | 5–9 | 3.4 | +0.63 | 0.8 | 22% |
| 2024-03-30 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.62 | 2.99 | 8–8 | 6.8 | +0.38 | 0.3 | 35% |
| 2024-03-23 | Admiral Moore Open Team Race | skipper | 2.62 | 1.76 | 2–6 | 3.1 | −0.87 | 0.7 | 92% |
| 2024-03-09 | St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | skipper | 2.63 | 2.23 | 3–13 | 3.7 | −0.40 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2024-03-02 | Navy Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.62 | 2.43 | 7–8 | 7.6 | −0.19 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2023-04-08 | Yale Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.70 | 2.50 | 4–6 | 4.3 | −0.20 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2023-04-01 | Finger Lakes Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.60 | 3.07 | 11–1 | 10.5 | +0.46 | 0.2 | 55% |
| 2023-03-25 | Jen Harris Team Race | skipper | 2.70 | 1.87 | 4–6 | 5.7 | −0.83 | 1.0 | 94% |
| 2023-03-11 | St. Mary's Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.56 | 2.79 | 6–5 | 5.6 | +0.23 | 0.1 | 53% |
| 2022-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Trophy | skipper | 2.28 | 1.38 | 2–7 | 3.5 | −0.90 | 0.9 | 93% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Truxtun Umstead Regatta | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.6 | 2.85 |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.5 | 3.48 |
| St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | Skipper | TR | 16 | 19% | — |
| MAISA Open Team Race/Prosser Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Navy Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 50% | — |
| America Trophy - Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.8 | 3.48 |
| Admiral Moore Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regatta at KP Invite Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 3.0 | 2.28 |
| Women's ACC Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 4 | 7.5 | 3.01 |
| Susan Rogers Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 4.5 | 3.79 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 8.4 | 2.90 |
| Seneca Showdown | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.8 | 3.35 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.1 | 3.80 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.5 | 3.61 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 2 | 8.0 | 3.56 |
| Jen Harris Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Finger Lakes Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 92% | — |
| Admirals Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 10.7 | 3.42 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 6 | 5.7 | 4.11 |
| Top 9/Women's Susan Rogers '75 Memorial Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 4.5 | 1.94 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 7.7 | 3.09 |
| Open Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | A | 16 | 8.4 | 3.80 |
| New York Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.4 | 4.35 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 3.61 |
| Big Red Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.6 | 3.55 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Mary's College Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 7.2 | 3.53 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 20% | — |
| Emily Wick Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.3 | 3.11 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.7 | 3.51 |
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.5 | 0.81 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Memorial | Skipper | B | 10 | 2.5 | 2.63 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.6 | 2.59 |
| Coed ACC's Round 1A | Skipper | B | 18 | 11.1 | 3.24 |
| Big Red Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.6 | 2.50 |
| Atlantic Coast Tournament | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.0 | 3.54 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | J.J. Smith |  Manatee High School |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
