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Seneca Showdown

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 10 10
2 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 25 25
3 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 7 25 25
4 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 9 34 34
5 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 37 37
6 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 41 41
7 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 8 50 50
8 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 50 50
9 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 54 54
10 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 6 56 56
11 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 9 61 61
12 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 8 63 63
13 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 7 67 67
14 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 73 73
15 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 86 86
16 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 6 96 96
17 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 97 97
18 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 101 101
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 2 1 1 3 1 2 10 Bridget Green '25
Sophia Pearce '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 3 10 4 2 3 3 25 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '26
Rachel Duggan '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 7 10 2 7 1 4 1 25 Will Murray '24
Frances Depke '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 9 5 6 6 5 2 10 34 Jj Klempen '27
Anna Mcbride '24
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 4 3 5 11 10 4 37 Winborne Majette '27
Amelia Neumann '25
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 1 13 13 4 5 5 41 J.J. Smith '24
Kit Harned '27
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 8 7 9 15 6 6 7 50 Heather Kerns '24
Stella Kim '27
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 9 7 8 10 7 9 50 Lauren Ehnot '24 [1-6]
Kate Moran '27 [1-2]
Boris Bialer '26 [3-6]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 14 12 3 7 12 6 54 Sophia Devling '26 [1-6]
Boris Bialer '26 [1-2]
Kate Moran '27 [3-6]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 6 6 5 2 13 17 13 56 Lucija Ruzevic '24
Maeve Katics '26
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 9 11 8 9 9 9 15 61 Ava Grace Sannino '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Aidan Lane '24 [3-4]
Theodore Taylor '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Kate Constan '26 [3-4]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 8 8 11 14 14 8 8 63 Maya Conway '26
Wynne Williams '27
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 7 13 4 11 17 11 11 67 Pilar Cundey '27
Clara Hewson '24
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 12 15 12 8 14 12 73 Owen Carolan '26
Elijah Goldman '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 17 17 10 12 16 14 86 Owen Harrod '26
Colin Dubose '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 6 16 16 18 15 13 18 96 Bennett O'Keefe '27
Valyn Mogensen '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 18 14 16 18 15 16 97 Jack Carter '27 [1-4]
Myles Holt '27 [5-6]
Henry Breslin '27 [1-4]
Noah Hemingway '27 [5-6]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 15 18 17 16 18 17 101 Thomas Allison '27 [1-4]
Maxim Carle '25 [5-6]
Juliana Victor '26 [1-4]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2018 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 1111111
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 2333333
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 3555555
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 4777777
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 5999999
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 6111111111111
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 7131313131313
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 8151515151515
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 9171717171717
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1222222
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2444444
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3666666
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4888888
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5101010101010
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 6121212121212
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 7141414141414
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 8161616161616
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 9181818181818
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 Sophia Devling '26 [1-6] Boris Bialer '26 [1-2]
Kate Moran '27 [3-6]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 Lauren Ehnot '24 [1-6] Kate Moran '27 [1-2]
Boris Bialer '26 [3-6]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 Winborne Majette '27 Amelia Neumann '25
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 J.J. Smith '24 Kit Harned '27
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 5 Bridget Green '25 Sophia Pearce '26
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 6 Lucija Ruzevic '24 Maeve Katics '26
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 7 Pilar Cundey '27 Clara Hewson '24
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 8 Maya Conway '26 Wynne Williams '27
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 9 Ava Grace Sannino '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Aidan Lane '24 [3-4]		 Theodore Taylor '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Kate Constan '26 [3-4]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 Owen Harrod '26 Colin Dubose '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '26 Rachel Duggan '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 Owen Carolan '26 Elijah Goldman '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 4 Thomas Allison '27 [1-4]
Maxim Carle '25 [5-6]		 Juliana Victor '26 [1-4]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 5 Jack Carter '27 [1-4]
Myles Holt '27 [5-6]		 Henry Breslin '27 [1-4]
Noah Hemingway '27 [5-6]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 6 Bennett O'Keefe '27 Valyn Mogensen '26
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 7 Will Murray '24 Frances Depke '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 8 Heather Kerns '24 Stella Kim '27
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 9 Jj Klempen '27 Anna Mcbride '24

Conditions — 09/24/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 82%  ·  Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

61°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 57°F
Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.3 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 15.0 kn
From NE (37°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine2.0 hrs Humidity82% Pressure1018.7 hPa Rain0.06 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Hobart & William: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.19 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Hobart & William, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →