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Big Red Invite

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 37 37
2 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 37 37
3 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 39 39
4 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 45 45
5 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 54 54
6 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 66 66
7 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 72 72
8 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 77 77
9 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 4 80 80
10 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 86 86
11 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 88 88
12 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 89 89
13 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3 92 92
14 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 93 93
15 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 96 96
16 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 98 98
17 Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 108 108
18 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 112 112
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 1 6 6 7 1 3 6 7 37 Sophia Devling '26 [1-8]
Sophia Fogarty '25 [1-2]
Isabel Dhar '23 [3-8]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 8 1 8 3 7 5 3 2 37 Samuel Gavula '24
Joshua Zeelander '24
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 2 7 3 9 11 4 2 1 39 Madeleine Rice '24
Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse '26
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 3 17 4 2 9 1 5 4 45 J.J. Smith '24 [1-8]
Sophia Pearce '26 [1-2]
Rocco Cappetta '24 [3-8]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 9 2 1 5 6 10 10 11 54 Jack Vanderhorst '27
Ruby Redmond '24
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 5 18 13 4 5 7 11 3 66 Collin Porter '23
Frances Depke '25
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 7 5 2 17 15 14 7 5 72 Thomas Green '23
Rey Jacob Alino '25
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 6 16 12 6 2 15 1 DNF 77 Peter Lobaugh '24
Ava Brimicombe '25
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 4 13 10 9 14 3 9 13 9 80 Connor Bennett '26
Roberto Lugones '24
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 12 3 11 13 13 8 12 14 86 Will Donovan '25
Leah Spadaro '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 16 9 15 8 4 12 14 10 88 Brook Wood '25
Ksenia Lowry-Neufeld '25
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 14 15 5 11 12 11 9 12 89 Sophia Peck '26 [1-2]
Ethan Stoffman '24 [3-8]
Clara Hewson '24 [1-2]
Adler Weber '25 [3-8]
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3 10 8 14 1 10 17 15 17 92 Torrey Chisari '24 [1-5]
Cole Woodworth '26 [6-8]
Ella Marsden '24 [1-5]
Anna Hoffman '26 [6-8]
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 15 4 10 18 17 6 8 15 93 John Vail '24
Ben Hosford '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 11 14 16 12 16 2 17 8 96 Cooper Delbridge '26
Colin Dubose '25
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 18 13 7 16 18 16 4 6 98 Griffin Sisk '23
Aidan Peck '26
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 4 11 17 15 14 13 18 16 108 Aidan Lane '24 [1-2]
Ava Grace Sannino '26 [3-8]
Susie Foster '23 [1-2]
Peter Jordan '23 [3-8]
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 17 12 18 10 8 18 16 13 112 Isabelle Gautier '26
Nicole Schafer '23
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.170+0.17
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (27 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 111112222
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 222221111
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 333334444
Cornell UniversityCornell University Big Red 444443333
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 155556666
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 266665555
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 377778888
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams 488887777
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1999910101010
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2101010109999
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 31111111112121212
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 11414141413131313
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 21515151516161616
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers 11212121211111111
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers 21313131314141414
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 11616161615151515
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 21717171718181818
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers 31818181817171717
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 1 J.J. Smith '24 [1-8] Sophia Pearce '26 [1-2]
Rocco Cappetta '24 [3-8]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 2 Sophia Devling '26 [1-8] Sophia Fogarty '25 [1-2]
Isabel Dhar '23 [3-8]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 3 Sophia Peck '26 [1-2]
Ethan Stoffman '24 [3-8]		 Clara Hewson '24 [1-2]
Adler Weber '25 [3-8]
Cornell University Cornell University Big Red 4 Aidan Lane '24 [1-2]
Ava Grace Sannino '26 [3-8]		 Susie Foster '23 [1-2]
Peter Jordan '23 [3-8]
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 Peter Lobaugh '24 Ava Brimicombe '25
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 2 Griffin Sisk '23 Aidan Peck '26
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 Will Donovan '25 Leah Spadaro '25
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 4 Connor Bennett '26 Roberto Lugones '24
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 1 Collin Porter '23 Frances Depke '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 2 Brook Wood '25 Ksenia Lowry-Neufeld '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 3 Cooper Delbridge '26 Colin Dubose '25
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 1 John Vail '24 Ben Hosford '25
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 2 Isabelle Gautier '26 Nicole Schafer '23
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 Jack Vanderhorst '27 Ruby Redmond '24
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 Thomas Green '23 Rey Jacob Alino '25
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 1 Samuel Gavula '24 Joshua Zeelander '24
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 2 Madeleine Rice '24 Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse '26
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 3 Torrey Chisari '24 [1-5]
Cole Woodworth '26 [6-8]		 Ella Marsden '24 [1-5]
Anna Hoffman '26 [6-8]

Conditions — 09/17/2022 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear
Humidity 65%  ·  Pressure 1021.8 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.0 kn
avg  ·  max 4.5 kn
Gusts to 11.9 kn
From SSW (192°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover43% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity65% Pressure1021.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 6 kn · W 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Cornell: an underdogs’ day (−0.04)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.14
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.38 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →