St. Mary's Women's Team Race

HostSt. Mary's
Date03/11/2023
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	11–0
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	10–1
3	Brown University	Bears	9–2
4	Harvard University	Crimson	7–4
5	Cornell University	Big Red	6–5
6	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	5–6
7	Tulane University	Green Wave	5–6
8	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	4–7
9	College of Charleston	Cougars	3–8
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	3–8
11	University of South Florida	Bulls	3–8
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	0–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 19,442 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-11, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 56 of 67 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.361 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.21 ± 0.22: a typical event, more orderly than 67% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	11.12 school +0.43	Michelle Lahrkamp / Ellie Harned 3.54 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Grace Austin 3.74 Hannah Freeman / Sophie Fisher 3.37 7–0 Hannah Freeman / Abigail Tindall 3.43 4–0	92%	11–0 (100%)	+0.9
2	Yale University Bulldogs	2	10.69 school +0.24	Mia Nicolosi / Ximena Escobar 3.43 Emma Cowles / Helena Ware 3.32 Carmen Cowles / Sarah Moeder 3.63 5–1 Carmen Cowles / Megan Grimes 3.73 5–0	87%	10–1 (91%)	+0.4
3	Brown University Bears	4	9.13 school +0.21	Brielle Willoughby / Francesca Edmands 2.93 7–0 Blaire Mccarthy / Kaitlyn Hamilton 2.96 6–0 Caroline Bayless / Savannah Young 3.01 6–0 Blaire Mccarthy / Savannah Young 3.09 3–2 Caroline Bayless / Helen Horangic 2.87 3–2 Brielle Willoughby / Brianna Ross 2.96 2–2	67%	9–2 (82%)	+1.6
4	Harvard University Crimson	3	9.29 school +0.24	Cordelia Burn / Margo Silliman 3.06 Marbella Marlo / Corinne Lee 2.91 4–3 Sarah Burn / Daniella Bregman 3.01 4–3 Marbella Marlo / Juliana Ruggieri 2.97 3–1 Sarah Burn / Corinne Lee 3.05 3–1	69%	7–4 (64%)	−0.5
5	Cornell University Big Red	6	8.21 school −0.19	Meredith Moran / Amelia Neumann 2.54 Bridget Green / Gabbi Delbello 3.22 4–5 J.J. Smith / Lucija Ruzevic 2.56 4–3 J.J. Smith / Sophia Pearce 2.67 0–2 Bridget Green / Sophia Pearce 3.19 2–0 J.J. Smith / Gabbi Delbello 2.73 2–0	51%	6–5 (55%)	+0.4
6	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	7	8.29 school +0.32	Torrey Chisari / Claire Dubois 2.63 4–4 Madeleine Rice / Kiki Bruzzi 2.52 4–4 Sofia Segalla / Adra Ivancich 2.81 4–4 Torrey Chisari / Anna Hoffman 2.64 2–2 Madeleine Rice / Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse 2.36 2–2 Sofia Segalla / Kiki Bruzzi 2.90 2–2	50%	6–6 (50%)	−0.1
7	Tulane University Green Wave	5	8.51	Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Catherine Anderson 3.22 3–5 Caroline Benson / Abigail Borggaard 2.71 2–4 Mia Hanes / Megan Cassidy 2.44 2–2 Caroline Benson / Ellie Spearman 2.89 2–2 Mia Hanes / Abigail Borggaard 2.37 2–2 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan / Lydia Brown 3.37 2–2 Caroline Benson / Megan Cassidy 2.78 1–1 Mia Hanes / Annie Richard 2.38 1–1 Mia Hanes / Essie Clifton 2.48 0–2	54%	5–7 (42%)	−1.5
8	Old Dominion University Monarchs	11	6.34 school +0.27	Elizabeth Gildea / Isabelle Kanach 2.37 Megan Geith / Cadence Goodnight 2.06 Allison Volk / Lindsey Kaufmann 2–3 Allison Volk / Kristin Johnson 0–3 Emma Friedauer / Allison Volk 1.76 1–1 Allison Volk / Emma Friedauer 1–0	18%	4–7 (36%)	+2.1
9	College of Charleston Cougars	8	7.77 school +0.51	Emily Alfortish / Rowan Schanley 2.59 Fredrikke Foss / Kalea Woodard 2.16 Emma Tallman / Paige Lubrano 2.42 2–5 Emma Tallman / Roxanne Snyder 2.57 1–3	41%	3–8 (27%)	−1.6
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	9	7.54 school +0.29, home +0.39	Leah Rickard / Emma Gronda 2.19 3–5 Lily Flack / Rachel O'Neill 1.98 1–5 Madison Bashaw / Anna Flynn 2.92 1–5 Lily Flack / Zoe Hoctor 1.94 2–3 Madison Bashaw / Rachel O'Neill 2.87 2–3 Cho-Cho Williams / Anna Flynn 0–2 Cho-Cho Williams / Emma Gronda 0–1	38%	3–8 (27%)	−1.2
11	University of South Florida Bulls	10	6.38	Emma Shakespeare / Olivia Smith 2.20 Heidi Hicks / Jewel "Min Min" Kelly 1.80 Sydney Monahan / Kay Brunsvold 2.38	18%	3–8 (27%)	+1.0
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	12	5.97 school +0.10	Heather Kerns / Frances Depke 2.38 Elizabeth Starck / Laura Therien Brook Wood / Ksenia Lowry-Neufeld 1.80	13%	0–11 (0%)	−1.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	11.12	14.12	11–0	10.1	≥+3.00	1.4	37%
8	Old Dominion University	6.34	7.67	4–7	1.9	+1.33	2.1	8%
3	Brown University	9.13	10.37	9–2	7.4	+1.23	1.4	18%
11	University of South Florida	6.38	7.09	3–8	2.0	+0.71	0.5	31%
2	Yale University	10.69	11.22	10–1	9.6	+0.52	0.2	57%
5	Cornell University	8.21	8.44	6–5	5.6	+0.23	0.1	53%
6	University of Pennsylvania	8.29	8.26	6–6	6.1	−0.03	0.0	65%
4	Harvard University	9.29	8.95	7–4	7.5	−0.34	0.1	81%
7	Tulane University	8.51	7.77	5–7	6.5	−0.74	0.8	92%
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland	7.54	6.74	3–8	4.2	−0.80	0.7	92%
9	College of Charleston	7.77	6.82	3–8	4.6	−0.95	1.1	95%
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	5.97	2.97	0–11	1.5	≤−3.00	2.4	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Hannah Freeman	Stanford University	3.37	6.37	11–0	10.1	≥+3.00	1.4	37%
Allison Volk	Old Dominion University	1.59	2.70	3–6	1.7	+1.11	1.1	20%
Emma Cowles	Yale University	3.32	3.84	10–1	9.6	+0.52	0.2	57%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.63	4.16	10–1	9.6	+0.52	0.2	57%
Torrey Chisari	University of Pennsylvania	2.63	2.60	6–6	6.1	−0.03	0.0	65%
Madeleine Rice	University of Pennsylvania	2.52	2.50	6–6	6.1	−0.03	0.0	65%
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	3.06	2.73	7–4	7.5	−0.34	0.1	81%
Sarah Burn	Harvard University	3.01	2.67	7–4	7.5	−0.34	0.1	81%
Mia Hanes	Tulane University	2.44	1.70	5–7	6.5	−0.74	0.8	92%
Ciara Rodriguez-Horan	Tulane University	3.22	2.48	5–7	6.5	−0.74	0.8	92%
Lily Flack	St. Mary's College of Maryland	1.98	1.18	3–8	4.2	−0.80	0.7	92%
Fredrikke Foss	College of Charleston	2.16	1.20	3–8	4.6	−0.95	1.1	95%
Cho-Cho Williams	St. Mary's College of Maryland	1.40	-1.60	0–3	0.3	≤−3.00	0.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	46%	upset
1	2	Tulane University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	65%
1	3	Brown University	College of Charleston	81%
1	4	Harvard University	Old Dominion University	95%
1	5	Stanford University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	100%
1	6	Yale University	University of South Florida	99%
1	7	Tulane University	Cornell University	56%
1	8	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	70%
1	9	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Harvard University	19%	upset
1	10	Stanford University	College of Charleston	97%
1	11	University of South Florida	Old Dominion University	51%
1	12	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	99%
1	13	Brown University	Tulane University	67%
1	14	Harvard University	Cornell University	75%
1	15	Stanford University	University of Pennsylvania	94%
1	16	University of South Florida	St. Mary's College of Maryland	19%	upset
1	17	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	86%
1	18	Yale University	Old Dominion University	99%
1	19	Brown University	Harvard University	47%	upset
1	20	Stanford University	Tulane University	94%
1	21	Cornell University	University of South Florida	86%
1	22	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	91%
1	23	Old Dominion University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	18%	upset
1	24	Yale University	College of Charleston	95%
1	25	Stanford University	Harvard University	86%
1	26	Brown University	University of South Florida	94%
1	27	Tulane University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	92%
1	28	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	87%
1	29	University of Pennsylvania	College of Charleston	64%
1	30	Yale University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	95%
1	31	Stanford University	University of South Florida	99%
1	32	Harvard University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
1	33	Brown University	Old Dominion University	95%
1	34	College of Charleston	Tulane University	33%	upset
1	35	Cornell University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	78%
1	36	Yale University	University of Pennsylvania	91%
1	37	University of South Florida	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	59%
1	38	Stanford University	Old Dominion University	99%
1	39	Harvard University	College of Charleston	82%
1	40	Brown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	90%
1	41	University of Pennsylvania	Tulane University	46%	upset
1	42	Yale University	Cornell University	92%
1	43	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	58%
1	44	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	81%
1	45	Stanford University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	99%
1	46	Harvard University	University of Pennsylvania	75%
1	47	Brown University	Cornell University	70%
1	48	Yale University	Tulane University	88%
1	49	Old Dominion University	College of Charleston	18%	upset
1	50	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	84%
1	51	University of Pennsylvania	University of South Florida	86%
1	52	Stanford University	Cornell University	95%
1	53	Harvard University	Tulane University	67%
1	54	Yale University	Brown University	82%
1	55	St. Mary's College of Maryland	College of Charleston	47%	upset
1	56	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	15%	upset
1	57	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	90%
1	58	Tulane University	University of South Florida	90%
1	59	Stanford University	Brown University	88%
1	60	Yale University	Harvard University	79%
1	61	University of Pennsylvania	St. Mary's College of Maryland	62%
1	62	Cornell University	College of Charleston	60%
1	63	Tulane University	Old Dominion University	90%
1	64	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	95%
1	65	Harvard University	University of South Florida	95%
1	66	Stanford University	Yale University	62%
1	67	University of Pennsylvania	Tulane University	47%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Bulldogs	Bears	Crimson	Red	Quakers	Wave	Monarchs	Cougars	Seahawks	Bulls	Statesmen
Stanford University Cardinal	11–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	10–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	9–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	7–4	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	L	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	6–5	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	6–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	5–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–8	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W
University of South Florida Bulls	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	0–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
2	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
3	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
4	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
5	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
6	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
7	Green Wave	2-3-5	def.	Big Red	1-4-6
8	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
9	Seahawks	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
10	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
11	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
12	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
13	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
14	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
15	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
16	Bulls	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
17	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
18	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
19	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
20	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Green Wave	2-3-6
21	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
22	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
23	Monarchs	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
24	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
25	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
26	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
27	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
28	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
29	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
30	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
32	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
33	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
34	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
35	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
36	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
37	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
38	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
39	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
40	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
41	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
42	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
43	Monarchs	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
44	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
45	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Seahawks	4-5-6
46	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5
47	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
48	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
49	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
50	Seahawks	1-3-6	def.	Statesmen	2-4-5
51	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
52	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
53	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
54	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
55	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
56	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
57	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
58	Green Wave	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
59	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
60	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
61	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
62	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
63	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
64	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
65	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
66	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bulldogs	4-5-6
67	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Hannah Freeman '24 Michelle Lahrkamp '23 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26	Abigail Tindall '23 Sophie Fisher '26 Ellie Harned '26 Grace Austin '24
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Emma Cowles '25 Mia Nicolosi '25	Sarah Moeder '26 Megan Grimes '24 Helena Ware '23 Ximena Escobar '25
Brown University	Bears	Blaire Mccarthy '23 Brielle Willoughby '24 Caroline Bayless '23	Savannah Young '25 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26 Brianna Ross '26 Francesca Edmands '25 Helen Horangic '25
Harvard University	Crimson	Cordelia Burn '25 Marbella Marlo '24 Sarah Burn '24	Margo Silliman '25 Corinne Lee '23 Juliana Ruggieri '23 Daniella Bregman '25
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 J.J. Smith '24 Meredith Moran '23	Gabbi Delbello '23 Sophia Pearce '26 Lucija Ruzevic '24 Amelia Neumann '25
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Madeleine Rice '24 Sofia Segalla '25 Torrey Chisari '24	Kiki Bruzzi '25 Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse '26 Adra Ivancich '26 Claire Dubois '23 Anna Hoffman '26
Tulane University	Green Wave	Caroline Benson '23 Ciara Rodriguez-Horan '22 Mia Hanes '24	Abigail Borggaard '24 Megan Cassidy '26 Ellie Spearman '25 Catherine Anderson '26 Lydia Brown '23 Essie Clifton '25 Annie Richard '23
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Allison Volk '25 Elizabeth Gildea '24 Emma Friedauer '26 Megan Geith '24	Kristin Johnson '26 Lindsey Kaufmann '26 Emma Friedauer '26 Isabelle Kanach '25 Allison Volk '25 Cadence Goodnight '26
College of Charleston	Cougars	Emily Alfortish '25 Emma Tallman '25 Fredrikke Foss '25	Rowan Schanley '24 Roxanne Snyder '23 Paige Lubrano '26 Kalea Woodard '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Cho-Cho Williams '26 Leah Rickard '26 Lily Flack '25 Madison Bashaw '24	Emma Gronda '22 Anna Flynn '25 Rachel O'Neill '24 Zoe Hoctor '25
University of South Florida	Bulls	Emma Shakespeare '24 Heidi Hicks '25 Sydney Monahan '23	Olivia Smith '23 Jewel "Min Min" Kelly '24 Kay Brunsvold '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Brook Wood '25 Elizabeth Starck '25 Heather Kerns '24	Ksenia Lowry-Neufeld '25 Laura Therien '26 Frances Depke '25

Conditions — 03/11/2023 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 54% · Pressure 1010.1 hPa

Temperature

44°F

↑ 47°F ↓ 39°F

Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

14.9 kn

avg · max 17.1 kn

Gusts to 36.7 kn

From NNW (331°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine6.8 hrs Humidity54% Pressure1010.1 hPa

What this breeze does at St. Mary's — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 16 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at St. Mary's in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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