Harvard University '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.66 (fleet 3.83) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.11 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 163–145 (53%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 | 6 | 42–42 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 7 | 49–38 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 7 | 59–48 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 2 | 13–17 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 22 graded regattas (308 matches) the record is 163–145 against 175.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−12.3). 3 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 10 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 26 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-28 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.96 | 3.86 | 9–7 | 6.4 | +0.90 | 1.7 | 10% |
| 2024-04-13 | NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy | skipper | 2.85 | 3.52 | 10–7 | 7.9 | +0.67 | 1.0 | 18% |
| 2024-04-06 | Yale Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.84 | 1.98 | 5–10 | 7.6 | −0.86 | 1.6 | 96% |
| 2024-03-30 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 2.88 | 1.56 | 6–10 | 10.2 | −1.33 | 4.1 | >99% |
| 2024-03-23 | The Duplin Trophy | skipper | 2.85 | 3.02 | 8–4 | 7.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2024-03-09 | Bob Bavier Open Team Race | skipper | 2.88 | 2.08 | 4–4 | 5.0 | −0.80 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 2023-04-29 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.98 | 1.78 | 3–8 | 5.2 | −1.20 | 1.8 | 97% |
| 2023-04-15 | NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship | skipper | 2.99 | 1.33 | 4–9 | 8.1 | −1.66 | 4.6 | >99% |
| 2023-04-01 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.03 | 2.14 | 6–7 | 8.1 | −0.89 | 1.4 | 96% |
| 2023-03-25 | Duplin Women’s TR | skipper | 3.00 | 2.89 | 10–5 | 10.3 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2023-03-18 | Ivan Geiger Team Race | skipper | 2.97 | 3.03 | 13–4 | 12.8 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2023-03-11 | St. Mary's Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.01 | 2.67 | 7–4 | 7.5 | −0.34 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2023-03-05 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.06 | 3.85 | 6–1 | 5.3 | +0.79 | 0.4 | 44% |
| 2022-04-23 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.92 | 2.71 | 7–9 | 7.6 | −0.22 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2022-04-09 | Camel Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.81 | 2.87 | 11–8 | 10.8 | +0.06 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2022-04-02 | NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy | skipper | 2.76 | 2.96 | 11–10 | 10.2 | +0.21 | 0.1 | 43% |
| 2022-03-26 | Joseph R. Duplin Trophy | skipper | 2.79 | 3.40 | 10–3 | 8.8 | +0.61 | 0.5 | 32% |
| 2022-03-19 | Team Race Invite | skipper | 2.91 | 2.34 | 9–8 | 10.8 | −0.57 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2022-03-12 | The Wood Trophy | skipper | 2.93 | 2.05 | 3–3 | 3.7 | −0.88 | 0.4 | 92% |
| 2022-03-05 | Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT | skipper | 2.84 | 3.15 | 8–7 | 7.0 | +0.31 | 0.2 | 39% |
| 2020-03-07 | MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | skipper | 2.53 | 1.38 | 8–12 | 12.2 | −1.14 | 3.4 | 99% |
| 2020-02-29 | Hap Moore Trophy | skipper | 2.21 | 3.83 | 5–5 | 2.1 | +1.62 | 3.5 | 3% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Women's Dinghy National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.9 | 3.40 |
| Western Women’s National Semi-finals Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.0 | 3.93 |
| ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| The Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 67% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 38% | — |
| Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.4 | 4.30 |
| Bob Bavier Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 50% | — |
| NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 17 | 59% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.7 | 3.93 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.9 | 4.13 |
| Women's ACC Round 1A Women's | Skipper | A | 16 | 7.8 | 3.42 |
| The Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 7.0 | 3.28 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.8 | 3.79 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.2 | 2.97 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 10.0 | 2.87 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 27% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 64% | — |
| College Sailing Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 10.0 | 3.79 |
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.6 | 4.67 |
| NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.3 | 4.43 |
| Ivan Geiger Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 76% | — |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Duplin Women’s TR Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 71% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 54% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Dinghy Championship, Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.6 | 3.79 |
| Women's ACC Series, Round 1A Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.7 | 4.52 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.9 | 4.10 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.5 | 5.07 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.9 | 3.72 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.9 | 3.73 |
| The 25th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 6.4 | 4.04 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| The Wood Trophy | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 44% | — |
| Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Team Race Invite | Skipper | TR | 13 | 46% | — |
| College Sailing Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 7.3 | 4.00 |
| College Sailing Women's Western Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.3 | 3.60 |
| NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 21 | 52% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.4 | 3.65 |
| Joseph R. Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 13 | 77% | — |
| Camel Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 58% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 11 | 5.7 | 3.46 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | B | 17 | 5.1 | 3.74 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.0 | 4.00 |
| The 24th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 8.6 | 3.21 |
| 2021 Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 9.2 | 3.32 |
| The 2021 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.0 | 3.95 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.6 | 3.55 |
| Spring 2020 Team page Season | |||||
| MIT FJ Team Racing Invite | Skipper | TR | 22 | 46% | — |
| Hap Moore Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 7.1 | 3.71 |
| Women's Showcase Qualifier A Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 5.2 | 3.77 |
| The Victorian Urn Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 3.02 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 7.8 | 2.34 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 3.4 | 4.33 |
| Regis Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 15 | 7.5 | 2.37 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.0 | 3.58 |
| Jen Harris Women's Showcase Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.1 | 4.07 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
