ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship

HostHarvard/MIT
Date04/28/2024
TypeNational Championship Finals
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	18–1
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	13–6
3	Boston College	Eagles	12–7
4	Dartmouth College	Big Green	11–8
5	Harvard University	Crimson	9–7
6	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	6–10
7	Cornell University	Big Red	6–5
8	Brown University	Bears	5–6
9	College of Charleston	Cougars	3–8
10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	2–9
11	Tulane University	Green Wave	2–9
12	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	0–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 24,850 team race matches sailed before 2024-04-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 75 of 88 matches (85%) with a log-loss of 0.404 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.39 ± 0.22: an orderly event, more orderly than 84% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	11.59 school +0.32	Hannah Freeman / Alice Schmid 3.59 Michelle Lahrkamp / Ellie Harned 3.79 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Gwendolyn Donahue 3.88	81%	18–1 (95%)	+2.7
2	Yale University Bulldogs	2	11.27 school +0.30	Emma Cowles / Catherine Cheung 3.55 Carmen Cowles / Carmen Berg 3.76 Mia Nicolosi / Sarah Moeder 3.64 12–6 Mia Nicolosi / Ximena Escobar 3.69 1–0	75%	13–6 (68%)	−1.2
3	Boston College Eagles	3	10.74 school +0.22	Caroline Sibilly / Katelyn Mcgauley 3.34 Colleen O'Brien / Libby Redmond 3.65 11–6 Michaela O'Brien / Sara Schumann 3.53 11–6 Colleen O'Brien / Sophia Hacket 3.61 1–1 Michaela O'Brien / Libby Redmond 3.51 1–1	63%	12–7 (63%)	−0.0
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	4	10.49 school +0.30	Maddie Hawkins / Reese Bragg 3.68 Sarah Young / Madeline Koelbel 3.34 Gray Hemans / Yumi Yoshiyasu 3.16	58%	11–8 (58%)	+0.1
5	Harvard University Crimson	9	9.43 school +0.20	Cordelia Burn / Emily Launderville 3.23 Sarah Burn / Lily Bartlett 2.96 Zoey Ziskind / Marbella Marlo 3.06 8–6 Zoey Ziskind / Margo Silliman 2.79 1–1	40%	9–7 (56%)	+2.6
6	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	8	9.49 school +0.25	Torrey Chisari / Kiki Bruzzi 3.20 Madeleine Rice / Shaanti Choi-Bose 2.84 Sofia Segalla / Hannah Bast 3.18	42%	7–10 (41%)	−0.1
7	Cornell University Big Red	5	9.40 school −0.10	Bridget Green / Sophia Mulvania 3.55 Winborne Majette / Amelia Neumann 2.88 5–4 Sophia Devling / Sophia Pearce 3.06 5–4 Winborne Majette / Sophia Pearce 3.03 1–2 Sophia Devling / Amelia Neumann 2.92 1–2	47%	6–6 (50%)	+0.4
8	Brown University Bears	7	9.26 school +0.29	Brielle Willoughby / Brianna Ross 3.43 Charlotte Costikyan / Menasha Leport 2.73 1–5 Katherine Mcnamara / Lily Shore 2.87 0–5 Laura Hamilton / Francesca Edmands 2.79 4–1 Charlotte Costikyan / Katherine Majette 2.65 3–1 Katharine Doble / Katherine Majette 2.92 1–0 Laura Hamilton / Katherine Majette 2.66 1–0	43%	5–6 (45%)	+0.3
9	College of Charleston Cougars	6	9.19 school +0.40	Emma Tallman / Noelle Owen 3.12 Grace Squires / Chloe Hudgins 2.89 Emily Alfortish / Lucy Klempen 2.80 2–7 Fredrikke Foss / Lucy Klempen 2.66 1–1	43%	3–8 (27%)	−1.8
10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	11	8.51 school +0.13	Brooke Schmelz / Samantha Karlson 3.11 Lucy Brock / Shayne Bersin 3.07 Brooke Barry / Mercedes Escandon 2.20 1–7 Brooke Barry / Elliott Chalcraft 2.16 1–1 Emma Wang / Elliott Chalcraft 2.24 0–1	30%	2–9 (18%)	−1.3
11	Tulane University Green Wave	10	8.65 school +0.05	Mia Hanes / Ellie Spearman 2.79 2–6 Samantha Gardner / Lucy Spearman 3.24 2–6 Ava Anderson / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 2.71 0–6 Mia Hanes / Abigail Borggaard 2.65 0–3 Samantha Gardner / Gillian Perrell 3.10 0–3 Ava Anderson / Hope Breslin 2.68 1–2 Audrey Permenter / Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez 2.34 1–1	32%	2–9 (18%)	−1.5
12	University of Wisconsin Badgers	12	5.42 school −0.21	Mary Castellini / Carmen Lineer 2.16 Marissa Tegeder / Lauren Salmi 1.80 0–10 Jacqueline Ruggieri / Dylan Gorman 1.70 0–8 Sydney Mandell / Dylan Gorman 1.49 0–3 Jacqueline Ruggieri / Lauren Salmi 1.74 0–1	2%	0–11 (0%)	−0.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	11.59	13.17	18–1	15.3	+1.58	2.6	8%
5	Harvard University	9.43	10.34	9–7	6.4	+0.90	1.7	10%
7	Cornell University	9.40	9.57	6–6	5.6	+0.17	0.0	53%
8	Brown University	9.26	9.40	5–6	4.7	+0.14	0.0	56%
4	Dartmouth College	10.49	10.51	11–8	10.9	+0.02	0.0	59%
3	Boston College	10.74	10.74	12–7	12.0	−0.00	0.0	61%
6	University of Pennsylvania	9.49	9.46	7–10	7.1	−0.03	0.0	63%
2	Yale University	11.27	10.89	13–6	14.2	−0.38	0.3	84%
10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	8.51	7.54	2–9	3.3	−0.97	0.8	93%
9	College of Charleston	9.19	8.20	3–8	4.7	−1.00	1.2	95%
11	Tulane University	8.65	7.57	2–9	3.5	−1.08	1.1	95%
12	University of Wisconsin	5.42	2.42	0–11	0.2	≤−3.00	0.3	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Hannah Freeman	Stanford University	3.59	5.17	18–1	15.3	+1.58	2.6	8%
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	3.23	4.13	9–7	6.4	+0.90	1.7	10%
Sarah Burn	Harvard University	2.96	3.86	9–7	6.4	+0.90	1.7	10%
Winborne Majette	Cornell University	2.88	3.05	6–6	5.6	+0.17	0.0	53%
Charlotte Costikyan	Brown University	2.73	2.86	4–6	3.7	+0.13	0.0	56%
Torrey Chisari	University of Pennsylvania	3.20	3.17	7–10	7.1	−0.03	0.0	63%
Madeleine Rice	University of Pennsylvania	2.84	2.81	7–10	7.1	−0.03	0.0	63%
Emma Cowles	Yale University	3.55	3.17	13–6	14.2	−0.38	0.3	84%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.76	3.38	13–6	14.2	−0.38	0.3	84%
Brooke Barry	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.20	1.37	2–8	3.0	−0.83	0.6	91%
Mia Hanes	Tulane University	2.79	1.71	2–9	3.5	−1.08	1.1	95%
Ava Anderson	Tulane University	2.71	1.60	1–8	2.3	−1.11	0.9	94%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	96%
1	2	University of Pennsylvania	Boston College	23%	upset
1	3	College of Charleston	Tulane University	67%
1	4	Harvard University	Cornell University	52%
1	5	Yale University	Brown University	88%
1	6	Dartmouth College	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	7	Boston College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	90%
1	8	Stanford University	Tulane University	96%
1	9	University of Pennsylvania	College of Charleston	56%
1	10	Harvard University	Yale University	11%	upset
1	11	Cornell University	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	12	Dartmouth College	Brown University	76%
1	13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tulane University	50%	upset
1	14	Boston College	College of Charleston	82%
1	15	Stanford University	University of Pennsylvania	89%
1	16	Harvard University	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	17	Dartmouth College	Yale University	31%	upset
1	18	Cornell University	Brown University	52%
1	19	Boston College	Tulane University	88%
1	20	Stanford University	College of Charleston	91%
1	21	University of Pennsylvania	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	73%
1	22	Yale University	University of Wisconsin	100%
1	23	Cornell University	Dartmouth College	25%	upset
1	24	Harvard University	Brown University	53%
1	25	Stanford University	Boston College	70%
1	26	Tulane University	University of Pennsylvania	33%	upset
1	27	College of Charleston	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	67%
1	28	Yale University	Cornell University	87%
1	29	Brown University	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	30	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	74%
1	31	Cornell University	College of Charleston	54%
1	32	Stanford University	Brown University	92%
1	33	Harvard University	Tulane University	66%
1	34	University of Pennsylvania	Yale University	14%	upset
1	35	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Wisconsin	95%
1	36	Boston College	Dartmouth College	57%
1	37	Stanford University	Cornell University	90%
1	38	Brown University	Tulane University	60%
1	39	Harvard University	College of Charleston	56%
1	40	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	94%
1	41	Dartmouth College	University of Pennsylvania	73%
1	42	Boston College	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	43	Cornell University	Tulane University	73%
1	44	Brown University	College of Charleston	49%	upset
1	45	Stanford University	Harvard University	89%
1	46	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	88%
1	47	University of Pennsylvania	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	48	Yale University	Boston College	63%
1	49	Stanford University	Yale University	58%
1	50	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	78%
1	51	Tulane University	University of Wisconsin	95%
1	52	Boston College	Cornell University	79%
1	53	Harvard University	University of Pennsylvania	49%	upset
1	54	Brown University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	66%
1	55	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	75%
1	56	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	57	Yale University	Tulane University	92%
1	58	Boston College	Harvard University	78%
1	59	Cornell University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	71%
1	60	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	41%	upset
1	61	Stanford University	University of Wisconsin	100%
1	62	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	84%
1	63	Yale University	College of Charleston	90%
1	64	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	71%
1	65	Boston College	Brown University	80%
1	66	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	52%
1	67	University of Pennsylvania	Cornell University	52%
4	83	Yale University	Boston College	63%
4	84	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	75%
4	85	Yale University	Dartmouth College	69%
4	86	Stanford University	Boston College	70%
4	87	Boston College	Dartmouth College	56%
4	88	Stanford University	Yale University	58%
6	68	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	73%
6	69	Yale University	Boston College	63%
6	70	Stanford University	University of Pennsylvania	89%
6	71	Dartmouth College	Boston College	44%	upset
6	72	Harvard University	University of Pennsylvania	49%	upset
6	73	Stanford University	Yale University	58%
6	74	Boston College	University of Pennsylvania	77%
6	75	Yale University	Dartmouth College	69%
6	76	Stanford University	Harvard University	89%
6	77	Yale University	University of Pennsylvania	86%
6	78	Boston College	Harvard University	78%
6	79	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	75%
6	80	Yale University	Harvard University	89%
6	81	Dartmouth College	University of Pennsylvania	73%
6	82	Boston College	Stanford University	30%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Bulldogs	Eagles	Green	Crimson	Quakers	Red	Bears	Cougars	Engineers	Wave	Badgers
Stanford University Cardinal	11–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	7–4	L	✕	W	L	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	8–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	8–3	L	W	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	8–3	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	7–5	L	W	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	L	W
Cornell University Big Red	6–6	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	5–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Tulane University Green Wave	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	0–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Bulldogs	Eagles	Green
Stanford University Cardinal	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	2–1	L	✕	W	W
Boston College Eagles	1–2	L	L	✕	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Bulldogs	Eagles	Green	Crimson	Quakers
Stanford University Cardinal	4–1	✕	W	L	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Boston College Eagles	3–2	W	L	✕	L	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	3–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	1–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
2	Quakers	2-3-5	def.	Eagles	1-4-6
3	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
4	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
5	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
6	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
7	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
8	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
9	Quakers	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
10	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
11	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
12	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
13	Engineers	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
14	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
15	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
16	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
17	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
18	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
19	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
20	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
21	Quakers	1-3-5	def.	Engineers	2-4-6
22	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
23	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
24	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Bears	2-4-6
25	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
26	Green Wave	2-3-5	def.	Quakers	1-4-6
27	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
28	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
29	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Badgers	1-4-6
30	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Crimson	2-4-6
31	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
32	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
33	Crimson	1-3-5	def.	Green Wave	2-4-6
34	Quakers	1-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-4-6
35	Engineers	1-3-6	def.	Badgers	2-4-5
36	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
37	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
38	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Green Wave	2-5-6
39	Crimson	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
40	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
41	Big Green	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
42	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
43	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Green Wave	1-4-6
44	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
45	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
46	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
47	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
48	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
49	Cardinal	2-3-5	def.	Bulldogs	1-4-6
50	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
51	Green Wave	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
52	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
53	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
54	Bears	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
55	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
56	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
57	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
58	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
59	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
60	Bears	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
61	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
62	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Green Wave	3-4-6
63	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
64	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Engineers	3-4-6
65	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
66	Quakers	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
67	Quakers	1-4-5	def.	Big Red	2-3-6
83	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
84	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Big Green	2-5-6
85	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
86	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
87	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
88	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-5
68	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
69	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
70	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
71	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
72	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
73	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bulldogs	3-5-6
74	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
75	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
76	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
77	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
78	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
79	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
80	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
81	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
82	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Cardinal	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Hannah Freeman '24 Michelle Lahrkamp '23 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26	Alice Schmid '27 Ellie Harned '26 Gwendolyn Donahue '24
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Emma Cowles '25 Mia Nicolosi '25	Carmen Berg '26 Catherine Cheung '24 Sarah Moeder '26 Ximena Escobar '25
Boston College	Eagles	Caroline Sibilly '26 Colleen O'Brien '24 Michaela O'Brien '24	Katelyn Mcgauley '24 Libby Redmond '24 Sophia Hacket '25 Sara Schumann '25
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Gray Hemans '25 Maddie Hawkins '24 Sarah Young '25	Yumi Yoshiyasu '24 Reese Bragg '25 Madeline Koelbel '26
Harvard University	Crimson	Cordelia Burn '25 Sarah Burn '24 Zoey Ziskind '27	Emily Launderville '24 Lily Bartlett '24 Marbella Marlo '24 Margo Silliman '25
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Madeleine Rice '24 Sofia Segalla '25 Torrey Chisari '24	Shaanti Choi-Bose '24 Hannah Bast '25 Kiki Bruzzi '25
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Sophia Devling '26 Winborne Majette '27	Sophia Mulvania '26 Amelia Neumann '25 Sophia Pearce '26
Brown University	Bears	Brielle Willoughby '24 Charlotte Costikyan '24 Katharine Doble '26 Katherine Mcnamara '26 Laura Hamilton '27	Brianna Ross '26 Katherine Majette '27 Menasha Leport '25 Lily Shore '24 Francesca Edmands '25
College of Charleston	Cougars	Emily Alfortish '25 Emma Tallman '25 Fredrikke Foss '25 Grace Squires '24	Lucy Klempen '24 Noelle Owen '24 Chloe Hudgins '24
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Barry '26 Brooke Schmelz '25 Emma Wang '27 Lucy Brock '25	Mercedes Escandon '25 Elliott Chalcraft '27 Samantha Karlson '25 Shayne Bersin '25
Tulane University	Green Wave	Audrey Permenter '27 Ava Anderson '27 Mia Hanes '24 Samantha Gardner '27	Andrea Riefkohl Gonzalez '24 Hope Breslin '26 Abigail Borggaard '24 Ellie Spearman '25 Gillian Perrell '24 Lucy Spearman '25
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Jacqueline Ruggieri '27 Marissa Tegeder '25 Mary Castellini '25 Sydney Mandell '26	Dylan Gorman '25 Lauren Salmi '26 Carmen Lineer '26

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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