Yale University '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3.25 (fleet 4.52) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.02 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 304–56 (84%) as crew 2–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 7 | 89–7 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 7 | 82–15 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 8 | 81–18 | 2–0 |
| Spring 2022 | 4 | 52–16 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 25 graded regattas (360 matches) the record is 304–56 against 302.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 9 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 18 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-27 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.98 | 3.78 | 14–2 | 14.3 | −0.20 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 2025-04-12 | NEISA Women's TR Champs - Legler Trophy | skipper | 3.82 | 6.82 | 17–0 | 15.8 | ≥+3.00 | 1.7 | 28% |
| 2025-04-05 | Yale Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.90 | 3.81 | 9–1 | 9.1 | −0.10 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 2025-03-29 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.86 | 3.95 | 13–2 | 12.9 | +0.09 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2025-03-22 | The Duplin Trophy | skipper | 3.72 | 3.65 | 13–1 | 13.1 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2025-03-08 | Jen Harris Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.69 | 4.07 | 18–1 | 17.6 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 58% |
| 2025-03-01 | Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.73 | 6.73 | 5–0 | 4.6 | ≥+3.00 | 0.6 | 63% |
| 2024-04-28 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.55 | 3.17 | 13–6 | 14.2 | −0.38 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2024-04-13 | NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy | skipper | 3.58 | 3.15 | 14–3 | 14.9 | −0.43 | 0.3 | 85% |
| 2024-04-06 | Yale Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.49 | 4.42 | 14–1 | 12.7 | +0.93 | 0.7 | 31% |
| 2024-03-30 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.40 | 3.57 | 14–2 | 13.7 | +0.17 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2024-03-23 | The Duplin Trophy | skipper | 3.36 | 6.36 | 12–0 | 10.6 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 20% |
| 2024-03-09 | Jen Harris Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.35 | 3.06 | 10–1 | 10.2 | −0.29 | 0.0 | 82% |
| 2024-03-02 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.41 | 2.01 | 5–2 | 6.2 | −1.40 | 1.3 | 98% |
| 2023-04-29 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.26 | 5.66 | 18–1 | 13.7 | +2.40 | 6.0 | 1% |
| 2023-04-15 | NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship | skipper | 3.26 | 4.11 | 14–2 | 12.1 | +0.85 | 1.1 | 20% |
| 2023-04-08 | Yale Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.28 | 2.45 | 12–4 | 13.8 | −0.83 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 2023-04-01 | Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy | skipper | 3.33 | 3.00 | 12–3 | 12.7 | −0.33 | 0.2 | 81% |
| 2023-03-25 | Duplin Women’s TR | skipper | 3.22 | 2.46 | 10–5 | 11.9 | −0.77 | 1.1 | 94% |
| 2023-03-11 | St. Mary's Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.32 | 3.84 | 10–1 | 9.6 | +0.52 | 0.2 | 57% |
| 2023-03-05 | Harvard Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.35 | 2.76 | 5–2 | 5.6 | −0.59 | 0.3 | 87% |
| 2022-04-23 | Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 3.26 | 3.73 | 13–3 | 11.8 | +0.46 | 0.4 | 36% |
| 2022-04-09 | Camel Women's Team Race | skipper | 3.23 | 2.98 | 14–2 | 14.4 | −0.25 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2022-04-02 | NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy | skipper | 3.16 | 2.92 | 14–7 | 14.9 | −0.24 | 0.2 | 77% |
| 2022-03-05 | Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT | skipper | 3.05 | 2.75 | 11–4 | 11.8 | −0.30 | 0.2 | 80% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Women's Western National Semi Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 5 | 3.0 | 5.17 |
| Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| Women's Fleet Race National Championships Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.4 | 3.79 |
| NEISA Women's TR Champs - Legler Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 17 | 100% | — |
| NEISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.3 | 4.97 |
| Jen Harris Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 95% | — |
| ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 88% | — |
| The Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 94% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 87% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 3.5 | 5.00 |
| Women's Urn Trophy/NEISA Women’s Fall Champs Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 4.6 | 4.42 |
| Stu Nelson@ Connecticut College Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.2 | 4.37 |
| NEISA Match Race Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 3 | 2.0 | — |
| ICSA Match Race National Championship Keelboat | Crew | A | 1 | 5.0 | — |
| Hood Trophy | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.0 | 4.66 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy 2024 | Skipper | C | 10 | 2.5 | 5.87 |
| 2024 Pine Trophy Keelboat | Crew | A | 12 | 3.3 | — |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Women's Dinghy National Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.2 | 4.39 |
| Western Women’s National Semi-finals Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.7 | 4.78 |
| Jen Harris Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 91% | — |
| ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 68% | — |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| The Duplin Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 100% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 88% | — |
| NEISA Women’s Team Race Champs/Legler Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 17 | 82% | — |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Regatta Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.1 | 4.07 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.4 | 4.23 |
| Women's ACC Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 4.6 | 3.96 |
| The Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 4.2 | 3.99 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 6 | 2.2 | 5.56 |
| Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 5 | 2.4 | 5.40 |
| The Hatch Brown Trophy | Skipper | C | 7 | 5.4 | 4.68 |
| Harry Anderson Jr Regatta | Skipper | B | 9 | 4.1 | 4.96 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 19 | 95% | — |
| St. Mary's Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 91% | — |
| St. Mary's Team Race Inter-Conference | Crew | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| College Sailing Women's National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.7 | 4.13 |
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinal Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.4 | 4.23 |
| NEISA Women's Team Racing Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 17 | 88% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship/Reed Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 5.8 | 4.18 |
| Harvard Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 71% | — |
| Duplin Women’s TR Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 64% | — |
| Dellenbaugh Women's Team Race Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 86% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 3.6 | 4.51 |
| Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 3.2 | 4.75 |
| Toni Deutsch '58 Regatta Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.9 | 4.83 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.5 | 4.75 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 6.5 | 3.82 |
| The 25th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.3 | 4.01 |
| 31st Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | C | 6 | 5.0 | 4.02 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 81% | — |
| Women's Team Race at Harvard-MIT Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 73% | — |
| College Sailing Women’s National Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 1 | 4.0 | — |
| College Sailing Women's Eastern Semifinals Women's | Skipper | B | 7 | 6.0 | 3.63 |
| NEISA Women's Team Race Champs/Dellenbaugh Trophy Women's | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| NEISA Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.6 | 4.56 |
| Camel Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 88% | — |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 2.5 | 5.18 |
| Women's ACC's Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.9 | 4.44 |
| Stu Nelson Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 2.5 | 4.71 |
| Regis Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.5 | 5.13 |
| The 24th Mrs. Hurst Bowl Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 6.6 | 3.70 |
| 30th Captain Hurst Bowl | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.8 | 4.06 |
| The 2021 Victorian Urn Trophy Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 3.1 | 4.32 |
| Harry Anderson Jr. Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.3 | 3.84 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
