| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Yale University | Bulldogs | 6–1 |
| 2 |  |
Harvard University | Crimson | 6–1 |
| 3 |  |
Brown University | Bears | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
Georgetown University | Hoyas | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
University of Pennsylvania | Quakers | 3–4 |
| 6 |  |
St. Mary's College of Maryland | Seahawks | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
U. S. Naval Academy | Midshipmen | 2–5 |
| 8 |  |
College of Charleston | Cougars | 0–7 |
| 9 |  |
Old Dominion University | Monarchs | 6–1 |
| 10 |  |
George Washington University | Buff and Blue | 5–2 |
| 11 |  |
Fordham University | Rams | 5–2 |
| 12 |  |
Hobart and William Smith Colleges | Statesmen | 4–3 |
| 13 |  |
Tulane University | Green Wave | 4–3 |
| 14 |  |
Cornell University | Big Red | 3–4 |
| 15 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | 1–6 |
| 16 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 19,847 team race matches sailed before 2023-03-18, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 30 matches (83%) with a log-loss of 0.511 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.69 ± 0.48: an orderly event, more orderly than 98% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yale University | 11.05 | 12.33 | 7–1 | 5.5 | +1.28 | 1.2 | 21% |
| 3 | Brown University | 10.13 | 11.18 | 5–2 | 3.5 | +1.05 | 1.1 | 20% |
| 4 | Georgetown University | 10.09 | 10.49 | 4–3 | 3.4 | +0.41 | 0.2 | 46% |
| 5 | University of Pennsylvania | 9.64 | 9.93 | 3–4 | 2.6 | +0.29 | 0.1 | 50% |
| 2 | Harvard University | 11.37 | 11.31 | 6–2 | 6.1 | −0.06 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 6 | St. Mary's College of Maryland | 9.94 | 9.58 | 3–5 | 3.6 | −0.36 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 7 | U. S. Naval Academy | 9.67 | 9.04 | 2–6 | 3.0 | −0.63 | 0.4 | 88% |
| 8 | College of Charleston | 9.53 | 6.53 | 0–7 | 2.4 | ≤−3.00 | 4.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Ascencios | Harvard University | 3.47 | 6.47 | 4–0 | 3.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 47% |
| Samuel Gavula | University of Pennsylvania | 2.78 | 2.75 | 1–2 | 1.0 | −0.03 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Cooper Walshe | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.87 | 2.24 | 2–6 | 3.0 | −0.63 | 0.4 | 88% |
| Carmen Cowles | Yale University | 3.64 | 2.92 | 2–1 | 2.4 | −0.72 | 0.2 | 90% |
| Axel Stordahl | College of Charleston | 2.77 | -0.23 | 0–7 | 2.4 | ≤−3.00 | 4.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Bulldogs | Crimson | Bears | Hoyas | Quakers | Seahawks | Midshipmen | Cougars | Monarchs | Blue | Rams | Statesmen | Wave | Red | Mariners | Privateers | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yale University Bulldogs | 7–1 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | L | W | W | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Harvard University Crimson | 6–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Brown University Bears | 5–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Georgetown University Hoyas | 4–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| University of Pennsylvania Quakers | 3–4 | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks | 3–5 | W | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen | 2–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| College of Charleston Cougars | 0–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Old Dominion University Monarchs | 6–1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | ✕ | L | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| George Washington University Buff and Blue | 6–2 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | W | ✕ | W | L | L | W | W | W |
| Fordham University Rams | 5–3 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen | 4–3 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | L | W | L | ✕ | W | L | W | W |
| Tulane University Green Wave | 4–3 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| Cornell University Big Red | 3–4 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | L | L | L | W | L | ✕ | W | W |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 1–6 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 0–7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 1-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 3-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Rams | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Statesmen | 2-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 6 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Quakers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bears | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Big Red | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Quakers | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 2-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Buff and Blue | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 17 | |
Monarchs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-4-6 |
| 18 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-5 |
| 19 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 20 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 21 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Buff and Blue | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Monarchs | 1-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Statesmen | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Green Wave | 2-3-6 |
| 24 | |
Monarchs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-3-6 |
| 25 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-4-6 |
| 26 | |
Bears | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 27 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Rams | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Big Red | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 2-4-6 |
| 30 | |
Buff and Blue | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Bears | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 1-4-6 |
| 32 | |
Bulldogs | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 33 | |
Crimson | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Hoyas | 2-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Big Red | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 3-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 2-4-5 |
| 36 | |
Buff and Blue | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rams | 1-5-6 |
| 37 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Quakers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-4-5 |
| 39 | |
Bears | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hoyas | 4-5-6 |
| 40 | |
Rams | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Green Wave | 2-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Mariners | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Monarchs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Statesmen | 1-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 44 | |
Crimson | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-6 |
| 45 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Quakers | 3-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Buff and Blue | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Big Red | 3-4-6 |
| 47 | |
Rams | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 48 | |
Green Wave | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners | 4-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Midshipmen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Crimson | 3-4-5 |
| 51 | |
Crimson | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Buff and Blue | 3-4-6 |
| 53 | |
Monarchs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
| 54 | |
Statesmen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-6 |
| 55 | |
Hoyas | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 3-4-6 |
| 56 | |
Green Wave | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Big Red | 2-5-6 |
| 57 | |
Seahawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Midshipmen | 4-5-6 |
| 58 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Crimson | 2-4-5 |
| 59 | |
Buff and Blue | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rams | 3-4-5 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
