ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship

HostBrown
Date04/27/2025
TypeNational Championship Finals
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	15–1
2	Yale University	Bulldogs	14–2
3	Harvard University	Crimson	9–7
4	Cornell University	Big Red	8–8
5	Dartmouth College	Big Green	8–8
6	Tulane University	Green Wave	7–9
7	Brown University	Bears	5–6
8	Georgetown University	Hoyas	4–7
9	College of Charleston	Cougars	4–7
10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	4–7
11	Tufts University	Jumbos	2–9
12	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	1–10

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 27,972 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-27, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 60 of 82 matches (73%) with a log-loss of 0.493 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.03 ± 0.21: a typical event, more orderly than 40% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	2	11.64 school +0.27	Ellie Harned / Kit Harned 3.45 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Ashtyn Tierney 4.19 10–0 Sophie Fisher / Piper Blackband 3.63 7–0 Sophie Fisher / Ashtyn Tierney 3.62 5–1 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Alice Schmid 4.41 4–1 Sophie Fisher / Shay Wood 3.72 3–0 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Shay Wood 4.29 1–0	79%	15–1 (94%)	+2.4
2	Yale University Bulldogs	1	12.40 school +0.32	Emma Cowles / Audrey Foley 3.98 13–0 Mia Nicolosi / Ximena Escobar 4.25 13–0 Carmen Cowles / Julia Miller 3.82 8–0 Carmen Cowles / Sarah Moeder 3.83 5–0 Carmen Cowles / Carmen Berg 3.90 1–2 Emma Cowles / Jessi Avila-Shah 4.02 1–2 Mia Nicolosi / Sarah Moeder 4.21 1–2	89%	14–2 (88%)	−0.3
3	Harvard University Crimson	6	10.24 school +0.34	Zoey Ziskind / Peyton Hadfield 3.32 Kate Danielson / Kennedy Leehealey 3.30 8–7 Cordelia Burn / Margo Silliman 3.21 6–3 Cordelia Burn / Amelie Zucker 3.37 3–4 Kate Danielson / Amelie Zucker 3.13 1–0	52%	9–7 (56%)	+0.7
4	Cornell University Big Red	4	10.47 school −0.07	Bridget Green / Amelia Neumann 3.69 2–6 Bridget Green / Hope Campbell 3.72 5–1 Sophia Devling / Sophia Fogarty 3.46 4–2 Winborne Majette / Sophia Pearce 3.38 3–2 Winborne Majette / Sophia Fogarty 3.36 3–1 Sophia Devling / Amelia Neumann 3.41 3–1 Winborne Majette / Amelia Neumann 3.31 3–1 Winborne Majette / Hope Campbell 3.34 0–4 Sophia Devling / Sophia Pearce 3.48 0–4 Bridget Green / Sophia Pearce 3.77 2–1 Sophia Devling / Sophia Mulvania 3.55 2–1	57%	9–8 (53%)	−0.7
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	7	9.86 school +0.36	Bella Casaretto / Faye Benjamin 3.34 Charlotte West / Sophie Menyhart 2.53 6–8 Sarah Young / Lilly Baker 3.61 5–5 Sarah Young / Alexandra Pierce 3.52 3–4 Charlotte West / Reese Bragg 2.73 2–1	43%	8–9 (47%)	+0.7
6	Tulane University Green Wave	10	8.95 school −0.07	Gabriela Vassel / Martha Hughes 2.39 6–6 Ava Anderson / Catherine Anderson 3.15 6–6 Samantha Gardner / Oakley Cunningham 3.35 6–6 Gabriela Vassel / Essie Clifton 2.56 1–3 Ava Anderson / Ella May Corckran 3.19 1–3 Samantha Gardner / Hope Breslin 3.44 1–3	26%	7–9 (44%)	+2.9
7	Brown University Bears	3	10.82 school +0.39, home +0.37	Laura Hamilton / Kaitlyn Hamilton 3.34 4–2 Katharine Doble / Francesca Edmands 3.42 4–2 Katharine Doble / Savannah Young 3.41 1–4 Katherine Mcnamara / Savannah Young 3.33 3–1 Laura Hamilton / Francesca Edmands 3.43 0–3 Katherine Mcnamara / Katherine Majette 3.24 0–3 Katherine Mcnamara / Sidney Moyer 3.20 1–1 Laura Hamilton / Katherine Majette 3.34 1–1 Katherine Mcnamara / Menasha Leport 3.27 1–1	68%	5–6 (45%)	−2.5
8	Georgetown University Hoyas	5	10.20 school +0.28	Kelly Bates / Anna Brzezinski 3.27 Piper Holthus / Lucy Jervis 3.44 Emily Doble / Morgan Rice 3.20	56%	4–7 (36%)	−2.1
9	College of Charleston Cougars	9	9.19 school +0.33	Fredrikke Foss / Andrea Melnik 2.95 Emma Tallman / Clara Murphy 3.13 2–5 Emily Alfortish / Marina Dryer 2.83 2–5 Emma Tallman / Sophia Browne 3.10 2–2 Emily Alfortish / Paige Lubrano 2.69 2–2	36%	4–7 (36%)	+0.0
10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	8	9.37 school +0.23	Brooke Barry / Mercedes Escandon 2.62 Lucy Brock / Shayne Bersin 3.21 Brooke Schmelz / Elliott Chalcraft 3.33 4–5 Brooke Schmelz / Samantha Karlson 3.22 0–2	39%	4–7 (36%)	−0.3
11	Tufts University Jumbos	12	8.03 school +0.34	Maisie Macgillivray / Lilly Ladd 2.44 Meredith Broadus / Annabel De Alessi 2.37 Sophia Hubbard / Amelia Traver 2.85	16%	2–9 (18%)	+0.3
12	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	11	8.20 school +0.23	Esme Gonzalez / Kiki Bruzzi 1.99 Sofia Segalla / Hannah Bast 3.43 Adra Ivancich / Caroline Dannacher 2.54	18%	1–10 (9%)	−1.0

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	11.64	13.33	15–1	12.6	+1.69	2.5	8%
6	Tulane University	8.95	9.98	7–9	4.1	+1.03	2.2	7%
3	Harvard University	10.24	10.46	9–7	8.3	+0.22	0.1	47%
5	Dartmouth College	9.86	10.07	8–9	7.3	+0.21	0.1	46%
11	Tufts University	8.03	8.23	2–9	1.7	+0.21	0.0	55%
9	College of Charleston	9.19	9.22	4–7	4.0	+0.02	0.0	62%
10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	9.37	9.21	4–7	4.3	−0.16	0.0	72%
2	Yale University	12.40	12.20	14–2	14.3	−0.20	0.0	77%
4	Cornell University	10.47	10.23	9–8	9.7	−0.23	0.1	76%
12	University of Pennsylvania	8.20	7.30	1–10	2.0	−0.90	0.6	91%
8	Georgetown University	10.20	9.13	4–7	6.1	−1.07	1.6	97%
7	Brown University	10.82	9.58	5–6	7.5	−1.23	2.2	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Ellie Harned	Stanford University	3.45	5.14	15–1	12.6	+1.69	2.5	8%
Gabriela Vassel	Tulane University	2.39	3.42	7–9	4.1	+1.03	2.2	7%
Ava Anderson	Tulane University	3.15	4.19	7–9	4.1	+1.03	2.2	7%
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	3.21	3.44	9–7	8.3	+0.22	0.1	47%
Bella Casaretto	Dartmouth College	3.34	3.55	8–9	7.3	+0.21	0.1	46%
Meredith Broadus	Tufts University	2.37	2.58	2–9	1.7	+0.21	0.0	55%
Fredrikke Foss	College of Charleston	2.95	2.98	4–7	4.0	+0.02	0.0	62%
Brooke Barry	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	2.62	2.45	4–7	4.3	−0.16	0.0	72%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.82	3.62	14–2	14.3	−0.20	0.0	77%
Emma Cowles	Yale University	3.98	3.78	14–2	14.3	−0.20	0.0	77%
Winborne Majette	Cornell University	3.38	3.15	9–8	9.7	−0.23	0.1	76%
Esme Gonzalez	University of Pennsylvania	1.99	1.09	1–10	2.0	−0.90	0.6	91%
Adra Ivancich	University of Pennsylvania	2.54	1.64	1–10	2.0	−0.90	0.6	91%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Tulane University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	39%	upset
1	2	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	88%
1	3	Yale University	Brown University	84%
1	4	Cornell University	Tufts University	92%
1	5	Tulane University	College of Charleston	44%	upset
1	6	Harvard University	Georgetown University	53%
1	7	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	86%
1	8	Dartmouth College	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	61%
1	9	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	90%
1	10	Stanford University	College of Charleston	93%
1	11	Yale University	Tufts University	99%
1	12	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	61%
1	13	Tulane University	Brown University	12%	upset
1	14	Harvard University	Cornell University	43%	upset
1	15	College of Charleston	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	42%	upset
1	16	Yale University	University of Pennsylvania	98%
1	17	Stanford University	Tulane University	94%
1	18	Brown University	Tufts University	94%
1	19	Tufts University	University of Pennsylvania	45%	upset
1	20	Harvard University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	71%
1	21	Dartmouth College	Cornell University	36%	upset
1	22	Stanford University	Brown University	67%
1	23	Cornell University	College of Charleston	78%
1	24	Yale University	Dartmouth College	93%
1	25	Tulane University	Georgetown University	21%	upset
1	26	Harvard University	Tufts University	91%
1	27	Stanford University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	90%
1	28	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	93%
1	29	Yale University	College of Charleston	96%
1	30	Tulane University	Cornell University	17%	upset
1	31	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	86%
1	32	Stanford University	Georgetown University	79%
1	33	Harvard University	University of Pennsylvania	89%
1	34	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Brown University	19%	upset
1	35	Yale University	Tulane University	97%
1	36	College of Charleston	Tufts University	74%
1	37	Yale University	Harvard University	90%
1	38	University of Pennsylvania	Dartmouth College	17%	upset
1	39	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Georgetown University	31%	upset
1	40	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	74%
1	41	Tufts University	Tulane University	30%	upset
1	42	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	36%	upset
1	43	Brown University	Georgetown University	66%
1	44	Stanford University	Tufts University	97%
1	45	Tulane University	University of Pennsylvania	67%
1	46	Cornell University	Georgetown University	56%
1	47	Harvard University	College of Charleston	68%
1	48	Yale University	Georgetown University	90%
1	49	Dartmouth College	College of Charleston	63%
1	50	Brown University	Cornell University	60%
1	51	Georgetown University	Tufts University	90%
1	52	Stanford University	Harvard University	77%
1	53	Yale University	Cornell University	87%
1	54	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Tufts University	79%
1	55	Harvard University	Brown University	34%	upset
1	56	Yale University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	95%
1	57	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	72%
1	58	Cornell University	Stanford University	23%	upset
1	59	Brown University	Dartmouth College	67%
1	60	Tulane University	Harvard University	26%	upset
1	61	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	University of Pennsylvania	77%
1	62	Stanford University	Yale University	33%	upset
1	63	College of Charleston	Brown University	18%	upset
1	64	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	72%
1	65	Cornell University	Massachusetts Institute of Technology	76%
1	66	Stanford University	University of Pennsylvania	97%
6	67	Harvard University	Tulane University	74%
6	68	Yale University	Dartmouth College	93%
6	69	Stanford University	Cornell University	77%
6	70	Yale University	Tulane University	97%
6	71	Harvard University	Cornell University	44%	upset
6	72	Stanford University	Dartmouth College	86%
6	73	Yale University	Cornell University	87%
6	74	Dartmouth College	Tulane University	71%
6	75	Stanford University	Harvard University	77%
6	76	Cornell University	Dartmouth College	63%
6	77	Yale University	Harvard University	90%
6	78	Stanford University	Tulane University	94%
6	79	Dartmouth College	Harvard University	36%	upset
6	80	Cornell University	Tulane University	82%
6	81	Stanford University	Yale University	34%	upset
6	82	Cornell University	Dartmouth College	63%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Bulldogs	Crimson	Red	Green	Wave	Bears	Hoyas	Cougars	Engineers	Jumbos	Quakers
Stanford University Cardinal	10–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	10–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	7–4	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	6–5	W	L	L	✕	L	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	6–5	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	L
Tulane University Green Wave	7–4	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W
Brown University Bears	5–6	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	4–7	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	2–9	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–10	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Bulldogs	Crimson	Red	Green	Wave
Stanford University Cardinal	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Yale University Bulldogs	4–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	2–3	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Cornell University Big Red	3–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	2–4	L	L	W	L	✕	W
Tulane University Green Wave	0–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Green Wave	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
2	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5
3	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
4	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6 DNF
5	Green Wave	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
6	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
7	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
8	Big Green	1-3-6	def.	Engineers	2-4-5
9	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
10	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
11	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
12	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
13	Green Wave	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
14	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
15	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
16	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
17	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Green Wave	2-5-6
18	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
19	Jumbos	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5
20	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
21	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
22	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
23	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
24	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
25	Green Wave	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
26	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Jumbos	4-5-6
27	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Engineers	1-5-6
28	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
29	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Cougars	4-5-6
30	Green Wave	2-3-5	def.	Big Red	1-4-6
31	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
32	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
33	Crimson	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5
34	Engineers	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
35	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
36	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Jumbos	2-5-6
37	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
38	Quakers	1-3-5	def.	Big Green	2-4-6
39	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
40	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
41	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
42	Big Green	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
43	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
44	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
45	Green Wave	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
46	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
47	Crimson	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
48	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
49	Big Green	1-3-4	def.	Cougars	2-5-6
50	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
51	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Jumbos	2-3-6
52	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
53	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
54	Engineers	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
55	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
56	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Engineers	3-5-6
57	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
58	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Cardinal	3-4-5
59	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Big Green	1-5-6
60	Green Wave	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
61	Engineers	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
62	Cardinal	1-4-5	def.	Bulldogs	2-3-6
63	Cougars	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
64	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
65	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Engineers	4-5-6
66	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
67	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Green Wave	3-4-5
68	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
69	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
70	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Green Wave	4-5-6
71	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
72	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
73	Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
74	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Green Wave	1-4-6
75	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
76	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
77	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Crimson	3-5-6
78	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Green Wave	3-5-6
79	Big Green	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
80	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Green Wave	1-5-6
81	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
82	Big Red	1-4-5	def.	Big Green	2-3-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Ellie Harned '26 Sophie Fisher '26 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26	Kit Harned '27 Shay Wood '27 Piper Blackband '28 Ashtyn Tierney '28 Alice Schmid '27
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Emma Cowles '25 Mia Nicolosi '25	Sarah Moeder '26 Carmen Berg '26 Julia Miller '26 Audrey Foley '28 Jessi Avila-Shah '25 Ximena Escobar '25
Harvard University	Crimson	Cordelia Burn '25 Kate Danielson '28 Zoey Ziskind '27	Margo Silliman '25 Amelie Zucker '28 Kennedy Leehealey '26 Peyton Hadfield '27
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Sophia Devling '26 Winborne Majette '27	Sophia Pearce '26 Amelia Neumann '25 Hope Campbell '28 Sophia Mulvania '26 Sophia Fogarty '25
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bella Casaretto '26 Charlotte West '28 Sarah Young '25	Faye Benjamin '25 Reese Bragg '25 Sophie Menyhart '27 Lilly Baker '27 Alexandra Pierce '25
Tulane University	Green Wave	Ava Anderson '27 Gabriela Vassel '28 Samantha Gardner '27	Catherine Anderson '26 Ella May Corckran '26 Martha Hughes '28 Essie Clifton '25 Oakley Cunningham '27 Hope Breslin '26
Brown University	Bears	Katharine Doble '26 Katherine Mcnamara '26 Laura Hamilton '27	Savannah Young '25 Francesca Edmands '25 Katherine Majette '27 Sidney Moyer '27 Menasha Leport '25 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Emily Doble '28 Kelly Bates '26 Piper Holthus '25	Morgan Rice '25 Anna Brzezinski '27 Lucy Jervis '27
College of Charleston	Cougars	Emily Alfortish '25 Emma Tallman '25 Fredrikke Foss '25	Paige Lubrano '26 Marina Dryer '26 Sophia Browne '25 Clara Murphy '27 Andrea Melnik '27
Massachusetts Institute of Technology	Engineers	Brooke Barry '26 Brooke Schmelz '25 Lucy Brock '25	Mercedes Escandon '25 Samantha Karlson '25 Elliott Chalcraft '27 Shayne Bersin '25
Tufts University	Jumbos	Maisie Macgillivray '25 Meredith Broadus '25 Sophia Hubbard '28	Lilly Ladd '26 Annabel De Alessi '25 Amelia Traver '28
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Adra Ivancich '26 Esme Gonzalez '28 Sofia Segalla '25	Caroline Dannacher '25 Kiki Bruzzi '25 Hannah Bast '25

Conditions — 04/27/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 53% · Pressure 1008.9 hPa

Temperature

52°F

↑ 54°F ↓ 47°F

Feels like 41°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

14.5 kn

avg · max 17.2 kn

Gusts to 43.0 kn

From WNW (298°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover85% Sunshine8.5 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1008.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Brown — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 15 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Brown in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.07)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.07 means a rating gap counts about 6% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Brown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (78 labelled fleet-race days at Brown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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