University of Pennsylvania '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.77 (fleet 2.49) | 237 of 331 | −0.03 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 43–70 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 12–25 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 5 | 31–45 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (113 matches) the record is 43–70 against 45.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.09 | 1.47 | 3–10 | 4.3 | −0.62 | 0.6 | 89% |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026 Jen Harris Team Race | skipper | 1.92 | 4.34 | 4–5 | 1.0 | +2.42 | 5.8 | 1% |
| 2026-02-28 | NA Open Team Race at SMC | skipper | 1.94 | 1.09 | 5–10 | 6.9 | −0.85 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 2025-04-27 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 1.99 | 1.09 | 1–10 | 2.0 | −0.90 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 2025-04-12 | MAISA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.96 | 1.82 | 11–10 | 11.5 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2025-03-22 | Georgetown Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.62 | 0.99 | 5–9 | 6.6 | −0.64 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2025-03-08 | Jen Harris Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.55 | 2.31 | 9–7 | 7.1 | +0.76 | 1.1 | 18% |
| 2025-03-01 | ODU Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.30 | 0.45 | 5–9 | 6.6 | −0.86 | 0.9 | 94% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Finals Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 14.4 | 2.05 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1 B Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.6 | 2.89 |
| Susan Rogers Women's | Skipper | A | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| SMC Open | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.8 | 2.39 |
| Oyster Bowl Coed | Skipper | A | 14 | 7.4 | 2.28 |
| KP Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 4.1 | 2.37 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Western National Semis Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.2 | 1.74 |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.6 | 0.81 |
| NA Open Team Race at SMC | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 13 | 23% | — |
| MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 6.5 | 2.41 |
| 2026 Jen Harris Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Regatta at KP Invite Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.0 | 0.35 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.6 | 2.24 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 12.8 | 2.24 |
| Susan Rogers Women's | Skipper | A | 10 | 12.6 | 0.76 |
| Oyster Bowl Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.4 | 1.61 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.2 | 3.31 |
| MAISA Top 9 Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.6 | 0.14 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| ODU Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| MAISA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 21 | 52% | — |
| Jen Harris Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 56% | — |
| ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 11 | 9% | — |
| Georgetown Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 36% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 12.2 | 1.39 |
| Susan Rogers Women's Invite Women's | Skipper | C | 8 | 6.9 | -0.15 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
