MAISA Women's Team Race Championship

HostHobart & William
Date04/12/2025
TypeConference Championship
Boat420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Cornell University	Big Red	20–1
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	19–2
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Herons	14–7
4	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	11–10
5	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	7–14
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	7–14
7	George Washington University	Revolutionaries	3–18
8	Fordham University	Rams	3–18

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 27,404 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 67 of 84 matches (80%) with a log-loss of 0.357 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.40 ± 0.22: an orderly event, more orderly than 85% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Cornell University Big Red	1	10.36 school −0.10	Sophia Devling / Sophia Fogarty 3.37 12–0 Winborne Majette / Sophia Mulvania 3.40 12–0 Bridget Green / Amelia Neumann 3.66 8–1 Winborne Majette / Sophia Fogarty 3.29 8–1 Bridget Green / Kate Moran 3.73 6–0 Bridget Green / Sophia Mulvania 3.80 6–0 Sophia Devling / Amelia Neumann 3.35 6–0 Sophia Devling / Sophia Pearce 3.42 2–1	89%	20–1 (95%)	+1.3
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	10.14 school +0.28	Kelly Bates / Anna Brzezinski 3.19 Piper Holthus / Scarlett Harris 3.52 Emily Doble / Morgan Rice 3.12	87%	19–2 (90%)	+0.7
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	6	7.34 school +0.10	Deana Fedulova / Stella Kim 2.57 Elizabeth Starck / Ella Donaldson 2.53 Sabrina Starck / Olivia Wilkins 2.08	38%	14–7 (67%)	+6.0
4	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3	8.11 school +0.23	Esme Gonzalez / Kiki Bruzzi 1.96 Adra Ivancich / Caroline Dannacher 2.51 Sofia Segalla / Hannah Bast 3.39	55%	11–10 (52%)	−0.5
5	Old Dominion University Monarchs	5	7.46 school +0.30	Allison Volk / Molly Hanson 1.75 Marina Conde / Isabelle Kanach 2.81 Gianna Dewey / Morgan Auth 2.56	41%	7–14 (33%)	−1.6
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4	7.46 school +0.23	Kate Zurinskas / Josephine Sherry 1.65 Ava Farley / Eleanor Niehoff 2.40 Eva Blauvelt / Mary Dwyer 3.15	41%	7–14 (33%)	−1.6
7	George Washington University Revolutionaries	7	6.85 school +0.07	Avery Canavan / Adrian Atwater 2.45 Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia / Ella Adelman 2.40 Hayden Clary / Brooke Kelley	28%	3–18 (14%)	−2.9
8	Fordham University Rams	8	6.48 school +0.12	Lizzie Cochran / Nora Donahue 2.46 Rebecca Keller / Alana Shigekane 2.35 Anna Robertson / Leah Spadaro 1.52	21%	3–18 (14%)	−1.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	7.34	9.05	14–7	8.0	+1.71	7.0	<1%
1	Cornell University	10.36	11.43	20–1	18.7	+1.08	0.9	28%
2	Georgetown University	10.14	10.58	19–2	18.3	+0.44	0.2	47%
4	University of Pennsylvania	8.11	7.98	11–10	11.5	−0.14	0.0	71%
5	Old Dominion University	7.46	7.04	7–14	8.6	−0.42	0.5	86%
6	U. S. Naval Academy	7.46	7.04	7–14	8.6	−0.42	0.5	86%
8	Fordham University	6.48	5.98	3–18	4.4	−0.51	0.5	86%
7	George Washington University	6.85	5.87	3–18	5.9	−0.98	1.9	97%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Winborne Majette	Cornell University	3.40	4.47	20–1	18.7	+1.08	0.9	28%
Esme Gonzalez	University of Pennsylvania	1.96	1.82	11–10	11.5	−0.14	0.0	71%
Adra Ivancich	University of Pennsylvania	2.51	2.38	11–10	11.5	−0.14	0.0	71%
Allison Volk	Old Dominion University	1.75	1.33	7–14	8.6	−0.42	0.5	86%
Marina Conde	Old Dominion University	2.81	2.39	7–14	8.6	−0.42	0.5	86%
Kate Zurinskas	U. S. Naval Academy	1.65	1.22	7–14	8.6	−0.42	0.5	86%
Ava Farley	U. S. Naval Academy	2.40	1.98	7–14	8.6	−0.42	0.5	86%
Eva Blauvelt	U. S. Naval Academy	3.15	2.73	7–14	8.6	−0.42	0.5	86%
Anna Robertson	Fordham University	1.52	1.01	3–18	4.4	−0.51	0.5	86%
Avery Canavan	George Washington University	2.45	1.47	3–18	5.9	−0.98	1.9	97%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia	George Washington University	2.40	1.42	3–18	5.9	−0.98	1.9	97%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	53%
1	2	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	66%
1	3	Georgetown University	Fordham University	98%
1	4	Cornell University	George Washington University	97%
1	5	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	66%
1	6	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	94%
1	7	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	65%
1	8	Cornell University	Fordham University	98%
1	9	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	88%
1	10	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	65%
1	11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	70%
1	12	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	95%
1	13	Georgetown University	George Washington University	96%
1	14	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	84%
1	15	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	50%	upset
1	16	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
1	17	George Washington University	Fordham University	59%
1	18	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	94%
1	19	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	31%	upset
1	20	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	95%
1	21	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	73%
1	22	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	62%
1	23	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
1	24	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	90%
1	25	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	47%	upset
1	26	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	73%
1	27	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	78%
1	28	Georgetown University	Cornell University	46%	upset
2	29	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	47%	upset
2	30	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	34%	upset
2	31	Georgetown University	Fordham University	98%
2	32	Cornell University	George Washington University	97%
2	33	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	66%
2	34	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	94%
2	35	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	35%	upset
2	36	Cornell University	Fordham University	98%
2	37	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	88%
2	38	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	65%
2	39	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	70%
2	40	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	95%
2	41	Georgetown University	George Washington University	96%
2	42	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	84%
2	43	Old Dominion University	U. S. Naval Academy	50%
2	44	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
2	45	Fordham University	George Washington University	41%	upset
2	46	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	94%
2	47	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	32%	upset
2	48	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	95%
2	49	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	73%
2	50	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	62%
2	51	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
2	52	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	90%
2	53	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	47%	upset
2	54	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	73%
2	55	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	78%
2	56	Cornell University	Georgetown University	53%
3	57	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	47%	upset
3	58	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	66%
3	59	Georgetown University	Fordham University	97%
3	60	Cornell University	George Washington University	97%
3	61	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	66%
3	62	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	94%
3	63	Old Dominion University	George Washington University	65%
3	64	Cornell University	Fordham University	98%
3	65	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	88%
3	66	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	64%
3	67	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	70%
3	68	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	95%
3	69	Georgetown University	George Washington University	96%
3	70	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	83%
3	71	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	50%	upset
3	72	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	95%
3	73	George Washington University	Fordham University	59%
3	74	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	94%
3	75	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	32%	upset
3	76	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	95%
3	77	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	27%	upset
3	78	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	62%
3	79	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
3	80	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	90%
3	81	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	47%	upset
3	82	Fordham University	U. S. Naval Academy	27%	upset
3	83	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	77%
3	84	Cornell University	Georgetown University	53%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Red	Hoyas	Herons	Quakers	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Revolutionaries	Rams
Cornell University Big Red	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	4–3	L	L	✕	W	W	L	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Red	Hoyas	Herons	Quakers	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Revolutionaries	Rams
Cornell University Big Red	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–4	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	1–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L
Fordham University Rams	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 3

Team	Rec.	Red	Hoyas	Herons	Quakers	Monarchs	Midshipmen	Revolutionaries	Rams
Cornell University Big Red	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–3	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–6	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	L
George Washington University Revolutionaries	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Fordham University Rams	2–5	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Herons	1-5-6
2	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
3	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
4	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
5	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
6	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Herons	4-5-6
7	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
8	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
9	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
10	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Revolutionaries	1-4-6
11	Herons	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
12	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
13	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-5
14	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
15	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
16	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Herons	3-4-6
17	Revolutionaries	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
18	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
19	Herons	2-3-5	def.	Quakers	1-4-6
20	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
21	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
22	Herons	2-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	1-5-6
23	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
24	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
25	Herons	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
26	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Rams	1-4-6
27	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	1-5-6
28	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Big Red	2-5-6
29	Herons	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
30	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
31	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
32	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
33	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
34	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Herons	4-5-6
35	Revolutionaries	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
36	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
37	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
38	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
39	Herons	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
40	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
41	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Revolutionaries	2-4-6
42	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
43	Monarchs	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
44	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Herons	4-5-6
45	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	1-5-6
46	Hoyas	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
47	Herons	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
48	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
49	Monarchs	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
50	Herons	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
51	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
52	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
53	Herons	1-3-6	def.	Monarchs	2-4-5
54	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
55	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
56	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
57	Herons	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
58	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
59	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
60	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
61	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
62	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Herons	3-5-6
63	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-5
64	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
65	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
66	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Revolutionaries	2-3-6
67	Herons	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
68	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
69	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
70	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
71	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
72	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Herons	3-5-6
73	Revolutionaries	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
74	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
75	Herons	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
76	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
77	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
78	Herons	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
79	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	2-5-6
80	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
81	Herons	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
82	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
83	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
84	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Sophia Devling '26 Winborne Majette '27	Sophia Mulvania '26 Kate Moran '27 Amelia Neumann '25 Sophia Fogarty '25 Sophia Pearce '26
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Emily Doble '28 Kelly Bates '26 Piper Holthus '25	Morgan Rice '25 Anna Brzezinski '27 Scarlett Harris '28
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Herons	Deana Fedulova '28 Elizabeth Starck '25 Sabrina Starck '28	Stella Kim '27 Ella Donaldson '27 Olivia Wilkins '28
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Adra Ivancich '26 Esme Gonzalez '28 Sofia Segalla '25	Caroline Dannacher '25 Kiki Bruzzi '25 Hannah Bast '25
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Allison Volk '25 Gianna Dewey '27 Marina Conde '28	Molly Hanson '27 Morgan Auth '27 Isabelle Kanach '25
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Ava Farley '26 Eva Blauvelt '25 Kate Zurinskas '27	Eleanor Niehoff '26 Mary Dwyer '27 Josephine Sherry '27
George Washington University	Revolutionaries	Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Avery Canavan '25 Hayden Clary '28	Ella Adelman '26 Adrian Atwater '28 Brooke Kelley '28
Fordham University	Rams	Anna Robertson '28 Lizzie Cochran '27 Rebecca Keller '25	Leah Spadaro '25 Nora Donahue '28 Alana Shigekane '27

Conditions — 04/12/2025 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle

Humidity 79% · Pressure 1018.9 hPa

Temperature

44°F

↑ 48°F ↓ 38°F

Feels like 38°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

7.8 kn

avg · max 10.2 kn

Gusts to 19.2 kn

From NNW (345°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine2.2 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1018.9 hPa Rain0.05 in

What this breeze does at Hobart & William — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Hobart & William in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.02)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Hobart & William by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 14 labelled days at Hobart & William, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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