Old Dominion University '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.11 (fleet 3.02) | 190 of 331 | −0.07 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 42–83 (34%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 6 | 21–46 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 4 | 21–37 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 10 graded regattas (125 matches) the record is 42–83 against 50.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−8.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.72 | -0.07 | 1–7 | 4.7 | −2.80 | 6.9 | >99% |
| 2026-04-03 | Tulane Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.68 | 3.29 | 3–12 | 1.8 | +0.61 | 0.5 | 28% |
| 2026-03-21 | Blaire Herron Memorial Women’s Team Race | skipper | 2.73 | 1.44 | 3–7 | 5.5 | −1.28 | 2.3 | 98% |
| 2026-03-14 | CofC Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.79 | 1.67 | 4–12 | 7.1 | −1.13 | 2.4 | 98% |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026 Jen Harris Team Race | skipper | 2.78 | 3.14 | 4–5 | 3.5 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2026-02-28 | ODU Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.74 | 3.08 | 6–3 | 5.5 | +0.34 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 2025-04-12 | MAISA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.81 | 2.39 | 7–14 | 8.6 | −0.42 | 0.5 | 86% |
| 2025-04-05 | Yale Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.58 | 2.26 | 1–6 | 1.3 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 77% |
| 2025-03-08 | Jen Harris Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.34 | 2.37 | 6–10 | 5.9 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 61% |
| 2025-03-01 | ODU Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.34 | 2.52 | 7–7 | 6.6 | +0.19 | 0.1 | 53% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's | Skipper | A | 13 | 5.2 | 3.05 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1A Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.4 | 3.24 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.4 | 3.54 |
| Open Atlantic Coast Tournament Finals | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.5 | 3.18 |
| Open Atlantic Coast Championships Round 1B | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.2 | 2.54 |
| Chesapeake Invitational | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.4 | -0.99 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Eastern National Semis Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.8 | 3.21 |
| Tulane Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 15 | 20% | — |
| ODU Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 67% | — |
| ODU Women's Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.7 | 2.41 |
| MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 8 | 12% | — |
| MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.8 | 3.89 |
| CofC Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 25% | — |
| Blaire Herron Memorial Women’s Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 10 | 30% | — |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.2 | 3.39 |
| 2026 Jen Harris Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.1 | 3.21 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.3 | 3.56 |
| Oyster Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.9 | 2.85 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.9 | 3.29 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.6 | 3.01 |
| MAISA Top 9 Open | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.6 | 0.75 |
| Chesapeake Invitational | Skipper | C | 10 | 9.5 | -0.33 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 7 | 14% | — |
| Women's Eastern National Semi Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.7 | 3.93 |
| St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.0 | 3.08 |
| ODU Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| MAISA Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 21 | 33% | — |
| MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | B | 15 | 5.4 | 3.21 |
| Jen Harris Women's Team Race Women's | Skipper | TR | 16 | 38% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Yale Women's Interconference Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 6.7 | 3.25 |
| Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Finals Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 10.8 | 3.04 |
| Women's ACC Round 1A Women's | Skipper | B | 11 | 7.2 | 3.33 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 7.5 | 2.42 |
| MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's | Skipper | B | 13 | 3.9 | 3.76 |
| MAISA Top 9 Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 16 | 12.9 | -0.51 |
| CofC Women's Fall Women's | Skipper | A | 18 | 5.6 | 2.32 |
| Chesapeake Invitational | Skipper | C | 14 | 14.3 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
