ODU Women's Team Race

HostOld Dominion
Date03/01/2025
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Cornell University	Big Red	16–1
2	College of Charleston	Cougars	11–6
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas	11–6
4	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	9–8
5	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	7–7
6	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	5–9
7	Fordham University	Rams	2–12
8	University of Wisconsin	Badgers	1–13

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 25,143 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 51 of 62 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.402 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness −0.07 ± 0.23: a typical event, more orderly than 35% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Cornell University Big Red	1	9.83 school −0.12	Sophia Devling / Sophia Mulvania 3.22 Bridget Green / Amelia Neumann 3.50 Winborne Majette / Sophia Pearce 3.21	85%	16–1 (94%)	+1.5
2	College of Charleston Cougars	3	8.74 school +0.36	Emma Tallman / Sophia Browne 3.00 Emily Alfortish / Paige Lubrano 2.49 9–3 Fredrikke Foss / Marina Dryer 2.82 9–3 Emily Alfortish / Marina Dryer 2.62 2–3 Fredrikke Foss / Lucy Elvart 2.77 2–3	67%	11–6 (65%)	−0.3
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	9.44 school +0.30	Piper Holthus / Lucy Jervis 3.30 Kelly Bates / Anna Brzezinski 2.88 Emily Doble / Morgan Rice	79%	11–6 (65%)	−2.5
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6	7.15 school +0.28	Kate Zurinskas / Josephine Sherry 1.48 Eva Blauvelt / Maggie Schuler 2.98 8–3 Ava Farley / Eleanor Niehoff 2.36 5–5 Ava Farley / Darby Dryden 2.38 4–3 Eva Blauvelt / Mary Dwyer 2.94 1–5	38%	9–8 (53%)	+2.6
5	Old Dominion University Monarchs	4	7.34 school +0.33, home +0.40	Gianna Dewey / Morgan Auth 2.51 Marina Conde / Isabelle Kanach Allison Volk / Kristin Johnson 1.58 4–6 Allison Volk / Lindsey Kaufmann 1.78 3–1	47%	7–7 (50%)	+0.4
6	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5	7.35 school +0.24	Esme Gonzalez / Janet Fu Adra Ivancich / Caroline Dannacher 2.37 Sofia Segalla / Hannah Bast 3.25	47%	5–9 (36%)	−1.6
7	Fordham University Rams	8	4.66 school +0.08	Lizzie Cochran / Parker Laing 2.17 Lauren Murray / Nora Donahue Anna Robertson / Ava Belli	10%	2–12 (14%)	+0.6
8	University of Wisconsin Badgers	7	4.90 school −0.19	Marissa Tegeder / Jenna Princing 1.61 Mary Castellini / Kerstin Hyer 2.12 Penelope Whiteside / Katherine Ahlquist	12%	1–13 (7%)	−0.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Cornell University	9.83	10.99	16–1	14.5	+1.16	1.1	23%
4	U. S. Naval Academy	7.15	8.22	9–8	6.4	+1.07	2.0	8%
7	Fordham University	4.66	5.25	2–12	1.4	+0.59	0.3	41%
5	Old Dominion University	7.34	7.53	7–7	6.6	+0.19	0.1	53%
2	College of Charleston	8.74	8.60	11–6	11.3	−0.14	0.0	71%
8	University of Wisconsin	4.90	4.09	1–13	1.7	−0.81	0.4	90%
6	University of Pennsylvania	7.35	6.49	5–9	6.6	−0.86	0.9	94%
3	Georgetown University	9.44	8.39	11–6	13.5	−1.04	1.9	98%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Winborne Majette	Cornell University	3.21	4.37	16–1	14.5	+1.16	1.1	23%
Kate Zurinskas	U. S. Naval Academy	1.48	2.55	9–8	6.4	+1.07	2.0	8%
Ava Farley	U. S. Naval Academy	2.36	3.43	9–8	6.4	+1.07	2.0	8%
Eva Blauvelt	U. S. Naval Academy	2.98	4.05	9–8	6.4	+1.07	2.0	8%
Anna Robertson	Fordham University	0.91	1.50	2–12	1.4	+0.59	0.3	41%
Marina Conde	Old Dominion University	2.34	2.52	7–7	6.6	+0.19	0.1	53%
Allison Volk	Old Dominion University	1.58	1.77	7–7	6.6	+0.19	0.1	53%
Fredrikke Foss	College of Charleston	2.82	2.67	11–6	11.3	−0.14	0.0	71%
Esme Gonzalez	University of Pennsylvania	1.30	0.45	5–9	6.6	−0.86	0.9	94%
Adra Ivancich	University of Pennsylvania	2.37	1.51	5–9	6.6	−0.86	0.9	94%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	90%
1	2	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	94%
1	3	Cornell University	College of Charleston	74%
1	4	Old Dominion University	University of Wisconsin	93%
1	5	Georgetown University	Fordham University	99%
1	6	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
1	7	University of Pennsylvania	University of Wisconsin	92%
1	8	Old Dominion University	College of Charleston	21%	upset
1	9	Cornell University	Fordham University	99%
1	10	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	11	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	83%
1	12	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	54%
1	13	Cornell University	University of Wisconsin	99%
1	14	Fordham University	College of Charleston	2%	upset
1	15	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	89%
1	16	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	47%	upset
1	17	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	98%
1	18	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	92%
1	19	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	92%
1	20	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	90%
1	21	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	79%
1	22	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	91%
1	23	Cornell University	Georgetown University	60%
1	24	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	93%
1	25	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	55%
1	26	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	67%
1	27	Fordham University	University of Wisconsin	44%	upset
1	28	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	93%
2	29	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	94%
2	30	College of Charleston	Cornell University	26%	upset
2	31	Old Dominion University	University of Wisconsin	91%
2	32	Georgetown University	Fordham University	99%
2	33	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
2	34	University of Pennsylvania	University of Wisconsin	92%
2	35	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	78%
2	36	Cornell University	Fordham University	99%
2	37	Georgetown University	University of Wisconsin	99%
2	38	U. S. Naval Academy	College of Charleston	17%	upset
2	39	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	53%
2	40	Cornell University	University of Wisconsin	99%
2	41	College of Charleston	Fordham University	98%
2	42	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	88%
2	43	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	46%	upset
2	44	College of Charleston	University of Wisconsin	98%
2	45	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	92%
2	46	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	92%
2	47	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	89%
2	48	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	79%
2	49	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Wisconsin	90%
2	50	Cornell University	Georgetown University	59%
2	51	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	93%
2	52	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	44%	upset
2	53	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	33%	upset
2	54	University of Wisconsin	Fordham University	56%
2	55	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	92%
2	56	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	90%
2	57	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	33%	upset
2	58	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
2	59	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	10%	upset
2	60	Cornell University	College of Charleston	73%
2	61	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	83%
2	62	Cornell University	Georgetown University	59%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Red	Cougars	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Quakers	Rams	Badgers
Cornell University Big Red	7–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	3–4	L	✕	L	W	L	W	L	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	3–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	4–3	L	W	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	3–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	2–5	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Wisconsin Badgers	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Red	Cougars	Hoyas	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Quakers	Rams	Badgers
Cornell University Big Red	9–1	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	8–2	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	5–5	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–4	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L
University of Wisconsin Badgers	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
2	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
3	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
4	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Badgers	3-4-5
5	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
6	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
7	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
8	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Cougars	1-5-6
9	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
10	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
11	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
12	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
13	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
14	Rams	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
15	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
16	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
17	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
18	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
19	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
20	Hoyas	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
21	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
22	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Badgers	3-4-6
23	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
24	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
25	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
26	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
27	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Badgers	2-3-6
28	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
29	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
30	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Big Red	4-5-6
31	Monarchs	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
32	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
33	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	1-4-6
34	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Badgers	3-5-6
35	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
36	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
37	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
38	Midshipmen	2-3-5	def.	Cougars	1-4-6
39	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
40	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
41	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
42	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
43	Midshipmen	1-4-5	def.	Monarchs	2-3-6
44	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Badgers	4-5-6
45	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
46	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
47	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
48	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
49	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Badgers	1-5-6
50	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
51	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
52	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
53	Cougars	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5
54	Badgers	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
55	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
56	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
57	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
58	Big Red	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
59	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
60	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
61	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
62	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Hoyas	3-4-5

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Sophia Devling '26 Winborne Majette '27	Amelia Neumann '25 Sophia Mulvania '26 Sophia Pearce '26
College of Charleston	Cougars	Emily Alfortish '25 Emma Tallman '25 Fredrikke Foss '25	Paige Lubrano '26 Marina Dryer '26 Sophia Browne '25 Lucy Elvart '28
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Emily Doble '28 Kelly Bates '26 Piper Holthus '25	Morgan Rice '25 Anna Brzezinski '27 Lucy Jervis '27
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Ava Farley '26 Eva Blauvelt '25 Kate Zurinskas '27	Darby Dryden '27 Eleanor Niehoff '26 Maggie Schuler '25 Mary Dwyer '27 Josephine Sherry '27
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Allison Volk '25 Gianna Dewey '27 Marina Conde '28	Kristin Johnson '26 Lindsey Kaufmann '26 Morgan Auth '27 Isabelle Kanach '25
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Adra Ivancich '26 Esme Gonzalez '28 Sofia Segalla '25	Caroline Dannacher '25 Janet Fu '27 Hannah Bast '25
Fordham University	Rams	Anna Robertson '28 Lauren Murray '28 Lizzie Cochran '27	Ava Belli '28 Nora Donahue '28 Parker Laing '28
University of Wisconsin	Badgers	Marissa Tegeder '25 Mary Castellini '25 Penelope Whiteside '28	Jenna Princing '28 Kerstin Hyer '25 Katherine Ahlquist '28

Conditions — 03/01/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 47% · Pressure 1003.6 hPa

Temperature

61°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 54°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.4 kn

avg · max 11.3 kn

Gusts to 25.3 kn

From WSW (240°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover31% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity47% Pressure1003.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Old Dominion — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Old Dominion in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.04)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Old Dominion by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (76 labelled fleet-race days at Old Dominion).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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