Emily Doble

Rating History

Team Race Rating

Rating	Rank	vs fleet rating	Record
2.59 (fleet 3.71)	104 of 331	−0.09 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts	as skipper 93–47 (66%)

Season	Regattas	Skipper W–L	Crew W–L
Spring 2026	5	37–21	—
Spring 2025	5	56–26	—

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 10 graded regattas (140 matches) the record is 93–47 against 97.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−4.3). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 9 bits of surprise in all.

Date	Regatta	Role	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2026-04-26	ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship	skipper	3.02	3.88	7–7	4.8	+0.86	1.4	13%
2026-04-11	MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship	skipper	2.95	2.42	11–5	12.2	−0.53	0.5	88%
2026-03-21	Blaire Herron Memorial Women’s Team Race	skipper	3.10	4.64	9–1	7.0	+1.54	1.9	12%
2026-03-07	2026 Jen Harris Team Race	skipper	3.18	2.06	3–6	4.4	−1.12	1.1	96%
2026-02-28	ODU Women's Team Race	skipper	3.16	2.83	7–2	7.4	−0.33	0.1	81%
2025-04-27	ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship	skipper	3.20	2.13	4–7	6.1	−1.07	1.6	97%
2025-04-12	MAISA Women's Team Race Championship	skipper	3.12	3.56	19–2	18.3	+0.44	0.2	47%
2025-03-22	Georgetown Women's Team Race	skipper	3.07	2.35	12–2	12.9	−0.73	0.5	92%
2025-03-08	Jen Harris Women's Team Race	skipper	2.87	2.68	10–9	10.6	−0.20	0.1	74%
2025-03-01	ODU Women's Team Race	skipper	2.88	1.84	11–6	13.5	−1.04	1.9	98%

Regatta results

Regatta	Role	Div	Races	Avg	Rating
Fall 2026 Team page Season
Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1A Women's	Skipper	A	14	7.4	3.48
Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Finals Women's	Skipper	A	14	9.6	3.40
Navy Women's Women's	Skipper	A	11	3.4	2.88
Spring 2026 Team page Season
Women's Western National Semis Women's	Skipper	A	10	5.2	4.31
Women's Fleet Race National Championships Women's	Skipper	A	12	10.8	3.25
ODU Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	9	78%	—
MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship Women's	Skipper	TR	16	69%	—
MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's	Skipper	A	14	4.5	3.46
ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship Women's	Skipper	TR	14	50%	—
Blaire Herron Memorial Women’s Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	10	90%	—
2026 Jen Harris Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	9	33%	—
Fall 2025 Team page Season
Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Round 1A Women's	Skipper	B	9	3.6	4.23
Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Finals Women's	Skipper	B	14	7.1	3.74
Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta	Skipper	A	2	5.5	4.39
Navy Women's Women's	Skipper	B	7	4.3	1.84
MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's	Skipper	B	14	2.0	4.63
Spring 2025 Team page Season
Women's Western National Semi Finals Women's	Skipper	B	6	5.2	3.89
Women's Fleet Race National Championships Women's	Skipper	B	8	10.4	3.24
St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's	Skipper	B	12	2.8	4.74
ODU Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	17	65%	—
MAISA Women's Team Race Championship Women's	Skipper	TR	21	90%	—
MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's	Skipper	B	7	3.3	4.09
Jen Harris Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	19	53%	—
ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship Women's	Skipper	TR	11	36%	—
Georgetown Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	14	86%	—
Fall 2024 Team page Season
Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Finals Women's	Skipper	B	12	7.2	3.91
Women's ACC Round 1A Women's	Skipper	B	7	7.1	3.28
Navy Women's Women's	Skipper	B	12	3.6	2.31
MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's	Skipper	B	13	4.3	3.49
MAISA Top 9 Women's Women's	Skipper	B	16	6.1	2.47
Chesapeake Open	Skipper	B	14	6.9	2.35

Linked Profiles

League	Name	School	Year
ISSA	Emily Doble	St. George's School	'24

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How do skipper ratings work?A log-strength fitted to every race at once, smoothed week to week.
What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
How does a crew rating work?A crew rating is small and uncertain; a worked example on one roster.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →