Jen Harris Women's Team Race

HostNavy
Date03/08/2025
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Yale University	Bulldogs	18–1
2	Brown University	Bears	15–4
3	Cornell University	Big Red	13–6
4	Georgetown University	Hoyas	10–9
5	College of Charleston	Cougars	8–8
6	Harvard University	Crimson	7–8
7	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	9–7
8	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	8–8
9	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	6–10
10	University of South Florida	Bulls	5–11
11	Fordham University	Rams	2–14
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	0–16

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 25,440 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-08, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 86 of 102 matches (84%) with a log-loss of 0.316 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.44 ± 0.19: an orderly event, more orderly than 88% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Yale University Bulldogs	1	11.56 school +0.27	Mia Nicolosi / Ximena Escobar 3.98 16–1 Carmen Cowles / Clara Díaz Suárez 3.50 14–1 Emma Cowles / Sarah Moeder 3.69 7–0 Emma Cowles / Carmen Berg 3.78 6–1 Emma Cowles / Jessi Avila-Shah 3.76 5–0 Carmen Cowles / Carmen Berg 3.68 4–0 Mia Nicolosi / Sarah Moeder 3.91 2–0	93%	18–1 (95%)	+0.4
2	Brown University Bears	3	9.54 school +0.30	Laura Hamilton / Kaitlyn Hamilton 3.10 7–3 Katharine Doble / Francesca Edmands 3.13 7–3 Katharine Doble / Savannah Young 3.15 8–1 Katherine Mcnamara / Menasha Leport 2.98 8–1 Laura Hamilton / Francesca Edmands 3.14 6–1 Katherine Mcnamara / Savannah Young 3.08 3–3 Katherine Mcnamara / Sidney Moyer 2.93 3–0 Laura Hamilton / Reese Corckran 3.06 2–0 Sidney Moyer / Katherine Mcnamara 2.47 1–0	61%	15–4 (79%)	+3.3
3	Cornell University Big Red	2	9.78 school −0.13	Bridget Green / Amelia Neumann 3.56 11–6 Winborne Majette / Sophia Fogarty 3.13 9–5 Sophia Devling / Kate Moran 3.12 6–3 Sophia Devling / Sophia Mulvania 3.29 5–3 Winborne Majette / Kate Moran 3.13 4–1 Sophia Devling / Amelia Neumann 3.13 2–0 Bridget Green / Sophia Mulvania 3.71 2–0	66%	13–6 (68%)	+0.5
4	Georgetown University Hoyas	5	9.32 school +0.27	Emily Doble / Morgan Rice 2.87 Kelly Bates / Anna Brzezinski 2.85 9–9 Piper Holthus / Lucy Jervis 3.27 9–8 Piper Holthus / Scarlett Harris 3.34 1–1 Kelly Bates / Scarlett Harris 2.95 1–0	56%	10–9 (53%)	−0.6
5	College of Charleston Cougars	6	8.85 school +0.39	Emma Tallman / Sophia Browne 3.06 Emily Alfortish / Paige Lubrano 2.53 5–5 Fredrikke Foss / Marina Dryer 2.82 5–5 Emily Alfortish / Marina Dryer 2.63 3–3 Fredrikke Foss / Lucy Elvart 2.77 3–3	52%	8–8 (50%)	−0.3
6	Harvard University Crimson	7	8.69 school +0.18	Kate Danielson / Amelie Zucker 2.39 8–6 Zoey Ziskind / Peyton Hadfield 2.87 5–7 Cordelia Burn / Sophia Montgomery 3.19 4–5 Cordelia Burn / Margo Silliman 3.09 4–3 Zoey Ziskind / Margo Silliman 2.92 2–1 Kate Danielson / Margo Silliman 2.47 0–2 Zoey Ziskind / Sophia Montgomery 3.03 1–0	50%	8–8 (50%)	+0.0
7	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	8	7.38 school +0.18	Esme Gonzalez / Sadie Yoder 1.55 Adra Ivancich / Caroline Dannacher 2.35 Sofia Segalla / Hannah Bast 3.24	44%	9–7 (56%)	+1.9
8	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4	7.91 school +0.28, home +0.37	Kate Zurinskas / Josephine Sherry 1.67 Ava Farley / Darby Dryden 2.48 8–4 Eva Blauvelt / Maggie Schuler 3.09 8–4 Ava Farley / Eleanor Niehoff 2.46 0–4 Eva Blauvelt / Mary Dwyer 3.01 0–4	56%	8–8 (50%)	−1.0
9	Old Dominion University Monarchs	10	7.02 school +0.31	Gianna Dewey / Morgan Auth 2.57 Olivia Gilmore / Allison Volk 5–7 Marina Conde / Kristin Johnson 2.34 5–5 Marina Conde / Isabelle Kanach 2.54 1–5 Allison Volk / Kristin Johnson 1.61 1–3	37%	6–10 (38%)	+0.1
10	University of South Florida Bulls	9	7.36 school +0.09	Kailey Warrior / Madisen Hamai 2.35 3–10 Kalea Woodard / Ruth Bergman 2.37 3–10 Kay Brunsvold / Melissa Janes 2.81 3–6 Ghislaine Van Empel / Catherine Brennan 1.98 4–5 Kay Brunsvold / Kalea Woodard 2.82 2–1 Kay Brunsvold / Kailey Warrior 2.83 0–1	44%	5–11 (31%)	−2.0
11	Fordham University Rams	12	5.00 school +0.12	Lizzie Cochran / Nora Donahue 2.21 Lauren Murray / Alana Shigekane 1.49 2–10 Anna Robertson / Leah Spadaro 1.14 0–12 Anna Robertson / Ava Belli 1.13 2–2 Lauren Murray / Ava Belli 1.50 0–4	10%	2–14 (12%)	+0.5
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	11	5.66 school +0.23	Bennett O'Keefe / Maya Mahoney Sabrina Starck / Olivia Wilkins Elizabeth Starck / Laura Therien 2.46 0–9 Elizabeth Starck / Ella Donaldson 2.36 0–7	17%	0–16 (0%)	−2.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Brown University	9.54	10.77	15–4	11.7	+1.23	2.8	5%
7	University of Pennsylvania	7.38	8.14	9–7	7.1	+0.76	1.1	18%
1	Yale University	11.56	11.93	18–1	17.6	+0.37	0.1	58%
11	Fordham University	5.00	5.37	2–14	1.5	+0.37	0.1	47%
3	Cornell University	9.78	9.96	13–6	12.5	+0.17	0.1	51%
9	Old Dominion University	7.02	7.05	6–10	5.9	+0.02	0.0	61%
6	Harvard University	8.69	8.71	8–8	8.0	+0.01	0.0	61%
5	College of Charleston	8.85	8.72	8–8	8.3	−0.13	0.0	70%
4	Georgetown University	9.32	9.12	10–9	10.6	−0.20	0.1	74%
8	U. S. Naval Academy	7.91	7.50	8–8	9.0	−0.41	0.3	84%
10	University of South Florida	7.36	6.47	5–11	7.0	−0.89	1.3	95%
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	5.66	2.66	0–16	2.7	≤−3.00	4.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Esme Gonzalez	University of Pennsylvania	1.55	2.31	9–7	7.1	+0.76	1.1	18%
Adra Ivancich	University of Pennsylvania	2.35	3.11	9–7	7.1	+0.76	1.1	18%
Carmen Cowles	Yale University	3.50	3.87	18–1	17.6	+0.37	0.1	58%
Emma Cowles	Yale University	3.69	4.07	18–1	17.6	+0.37	0.1	58%
Anna Robertson	Fordham University	1.14	1.50	2–14	1.5	+0.37	0.1	47%
Winborne Majette	Cornell University	3.13	3.30	13–6	12.5	+0.17	0.1	51%
Allison Volk	Old Dominion University	1.61	1.67	1–3	1.0	+0.06	0.0	68%
Marina Conde	Old Dominion University	2.34	2.37	6–10	5.9	+0.02	0.0	61%
Cordelia Burn	Harvard University	3.19	3.21	8–8	8.0	+0.01	0.0	61%
Fredrikke Foss	College of Charleston	2.82	2.70	8–8	8.3	−0.13	0.0	70%
Ghislaine Van Empel	University of South Florida	1.98	1.67	4–5	4.4	−0.31	0.1	80%
Kate Zurinskas	U. S. Naval Academy	1.67	1.25	8–8	9.0	−0.41	0.3	84%
Ava Farley	U. S. Naval Academy	2.48	2.07	8–8	9.0	−0.41	0.3	84%
Eva Blauvelt	U. S. Naval Academy	3.09	2.68	8–8	9.0	−0.41	0.3	84%
Kalea Woodard	University of South Florida	2.37	1.11	3–10	5.2	−1.26	1.9	98%
Bennett O'Keefe	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	0.95	-2.05	0–16	2.7	≤−3.00	4.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	38%	upset
1	2	Georgetown University	College of Charleston	62%
1	3	Harvard University	Old Dominion University	82%
1	4	Brown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	99%
1	5	Cornell University	University of South Florida	90%
1	6	Yale University	Fordham University	100%
1	7	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	81%
1	8	Harvard University	University of Pennsylvania	77%
1	9	Brown University	College of Charleston	65%
1	10	Cornell University	Old Dominion University	94%
1	11	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	38%	upset
1	12	Yale University	University of South Florida	98%
1	13	Georgetown University	Harvard University	67%
1	14	Brown University	U. S. Naval Academy	85%
1	15	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	92%
1	16	College of Charleston	Fordham University	98%
1	17	University of South Florida	Old Dominion University	64%
1	18	Yale University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	100%
1	19	Brown University	Harvard University	73%
1	20	Georgetown University	Cornell University	36%	upset
1	21	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	95%
1	22	University of Pennsylvania	University of South Florida	43%	upset
1	23	College of Charleston	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	97%
1	24	Yale University	Old Dominion University	99%
1	25	Cornell University	Brown University	57%
1	26	Harvard University	Fordham University	98%
1	27	Georgetown University	University of South Florida	84%
1	28	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	91%
1	29	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	40%	upset
1	30	Yale University	College of Charleston	94%
1	31	Cornell University	Fordham University	99%
1	32	Brown University	University of South Florida	90%
1	33	Harvard University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	95%
1	34	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	91%
1	35	College of Charleston	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
1	36	Yale University	University of Pennsylvania	98%
1	37	University of South Florida	Fordham University	90%
1	38	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	98%
1	39	Brown University	Old Dominion University	92%
1	40	Harvard University	College of Charleston	48%	upset
1	41	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	88%
1	42	Yale University	U. S. Naval Academy	97%
1	43	University of South Florida	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	83%
1	44	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	88%
1	45	Cornell University	College of Charleston	70%
1	46	Brown University	University of Pennsylvania	89%
1	47	Harvard University	U. S. Naval Academy	69%
1	48	Yale University	Georgetown University	91%
1	49	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	78%
1	50	College of Charleston	University of South Florida	82%
1	51	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	92%
1	52	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	87%
1	53	Brown University	Georgetown University	58%
1	54	Yale University	Harvard University	94%
1	55	College of Charleston	Old Dominion University	84%
1	56	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	84%
1	57	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	75%
1	58	Georgetown University	Fordham University	99%
1	59	Cornell University	Harvard University	72%
1	60	Brown University	Yale University	12%	upset
1	61	College of Charleston	University of Pennsylvania	81%
1	62	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	72%
1	63	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	97%
1	64	Harvard University	University of South Florida	87%
1	65	Brown University	Fordham University	98%
1	66	Yale University	Cornell University	86%
4	97	Brown University	Cornell University	43%	upset
4	98	Yale University	Georgetown University	91%
4	99	Brown University	Georgetown University	58%
4	100	Yale University	Cornell University	86%
4	101	Cornell University	Georgetown University	63%
4	102	Yale University	Brown University	88%
6	67	Yale University	Georgetown University	91%
6	68	Brown University	Cornell University	43%	upset
6	69	College of Charleston	Harvard University	52%
6	70	Old Dominion University	University of South Florida	36%	upset
6	71	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	95%
6	72	Georgetown University	Brown University	42%	upset
6	73	Yale University	College of Charleston	94%
6	74	Cornell University	Harvard University	72%
6	75	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	83%
6	76	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	72%
6	77	College of Charleston	Georgetown University	38%	upset
6	78	Brown University	Harvard University	72%
6	79	Yale University	Cornell University	86%
6	80	University of South Florida	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	82%
6	81	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	92%
6	82	Brown University	College of Charleston	65%
6	83	Yale University	Harvard University	94%
6	84	Cornell University	Georgetown University	63%
6	85	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	91%
6	86	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	88%
6	87	Yale University	Brown University	88%
6	88	Cornell University	College of Charleston	70%
6	89	Harvard University	Georgetown University	34%	upset
6	90	University of Pennsylvania	University of South Florida	44%	upset
6	91	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	34%	upset
6	92	U. S. Naval Academy	University of South Florida	75%
6	93	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	60%
6	94	University of South Florida	Fordham University	90%
6	95	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	77%
6	96	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	39%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Bears	Red	Hoyas	Cougars	Crimson	Quakers	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Bulls	Rams	Statesmen
Yale University Bulldogs	10–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	10–1	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	9–2	L	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	9–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
College of Charleston Cougars	6–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Harvard University Crimson	7–4	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	3–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	1–10	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	0–11	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 4

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Bears	Red	Hoyas
Yale University Bulldogs	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Brown University Bears	2–1	L	✕	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	1–2	L	L	✕	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	0–3	L	L	L	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Bulldogs	Bears	Red	Hoyas	Cougars	Crimson	Quakers	Midshipmen	Monarchs	Bulls	Rams	Statesmen
Yale University Bulldogs	5–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	–	–	–	–	–	–
Brown University Bears	3–2	L	✕	W	L	W	W	–	–	–	–	–	–
Cornell University Big Red	3–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	–	–	–	–	–	–
Georgetown University Hoyas	1–4	L	W	L	✕	L	L	–	–	–	–	–	–
College of Charleston Cougars	2–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	–	–	–	–	–	–
Harvard University Crimson	1–4	L	L	L	W	L	✕	–	–	–	–	–	–
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	5–0	–	–	–	–	–	–	✕	W	W	W	W	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	4–1	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	3–2	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of South Florida Bulls	2–3	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	1–4	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	0–5	–	–	–	–	–	–	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
2	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Cougars	3-4-5
3	Crimson	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
4	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
5	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
6	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
7	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
8	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
9	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
10	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
11	Rams	1-2-6 DNF	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
12	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
13	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
14	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
15	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
16	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
17	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
18	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
19	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
20	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
21	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
22	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
23	Cougars	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
24	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
25	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
26	Crimson	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
27	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
28	Midshipmen	1-2-5 DNF	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6 DNF
29	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Quakers	2-5-6
30	Bulldogs	1-3-5	def.	Cougars	2-4-6
31	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
32	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
33	Crimson	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
34	Hoyas	1-3-4	def.	Monarchs	2-5-6
35	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
36	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
37	Bulls	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
38	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
39	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
40	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
41	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
42	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
43	Bulls	2-3-5	def.	Statesmen	1-4-6
44	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
45	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Cougars	3-5-6
46	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
47	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
48	Bulldogs	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
49	Monarchs	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
50	Cougars	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
51	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
52	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Midshipmen	4-5-6
53	Bears	2-3-5	def.	Hoyas	1-4-6
54	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
55	Cougars	1-3-5	def.	Monarchs	2-4-6
56	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
57	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
58	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
59	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
60	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Bulldogs	3-4-6
61	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
62	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
63	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
64	Crimson	1-2-6	def.	Bulls	3-4-5
65	Bears	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
66	Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.	Big Red	3-4-5
97	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Big Red	3-4-6
98	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Hoyas	4-5-6
99	Bears	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
100	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
101	Big Red	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
102	Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
67	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
68	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
69	Cougars	1-2-3	def.	Crimson	4-5-6
70	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Bulls	3-4-6
71	Midshipmen	1-3-4	def.	Rams	2-5-6
72	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
73	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Cougars	3-4-6
74	Big Red	2-3-5	def.	Crimson	1-4-6
75	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
76	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
77	Cougars	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
78	Bears	2-3-4	def.	Crimson	1-5-6
79	Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
80	Bulls	1-3-5	def.	Statesmen	2-4-6
81	Quakers	1-4-5	def.	Rams	2-3-6
82	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Cougars	2-3-6
83	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Crimson	3-4-6
84	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
85	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
86	Monarchs	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
87	Bulldogs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
88	Big Red	1-3-6	def.	Cougars	2-4-5
89	Crimson	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6
90	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Bulls	4-5-6
91	Rams	1-3-4	def.	Statesmen	2-5-6
92	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Bulls	3-5-6
93	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
94	Bulls	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
95	Monarchs	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
96	Quakers	1-3-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Yale University	Bulldogs	Carmen Cowles '25 Emma Cowles '25 Mia Nicolosi '25	Clara Díaz Suárez '28 Carmen Berg '26 Sarah Moeder '26 Jessi Avila-Shah '25 Ximena Escobar '25
Brown University	Bears	Katharine Doble '26 Katherine Mcnamara '26 Laura Hamilton '27 Sidney Moyer '27	Savannah Young '25 Francesca Edmands '25 Menasha Leport '25 Sidney Moyer '27 Kaitlyn Hamilton '26 Reese Corckran '28 Katherine Mcnamara '26
Cornell University	Big Red	Bridget Green '25 Sophia Devling '26 Winborne Majette '27	Amelia Neumann '25 Sophia Mulvania '26 Kate Moran '27 Sophia Fogarty '25
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Emily Doble '28 Kelly Bates '26 Piper Holthus '25	Morgan Rice '25 Anna Brzezinski '27 Scarlett Harris '28 Lucy Jervis '27
College of Charleston	Cougars	Emily Alfortish '25 Emma Tallman '25 Fredrikke Foss '25	Paige Lubrano '26 Marina Dryer '26 Sophia Browne '25 Lucy Elvart '28
Harvard University	Crimson	Cordelia Burn '25 Kate Danielson '28 Zoey Ziskind '27	Sophia Montgomery '25 Margo Silliman '25 Amelie Zucker '28 Peyton Hadfield '27
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Adra Ivancich '26 Esme Gonzalez '28 Sofia Segalla '25	Caroline Dannacher '25 Sadie Yoder '28 Hannah Bast '25
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Ava Farley '26 Eva Blauvelt '25 Kate Zurinskas '27	Eleanor Niehoff '26 Darby Dryden '27 Mary Dwyer '27 Maggie Schuler '25 Josephine Sherry '27
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Allison Volk '25 Gianna Dewey '27 Marina Conde '28 Olivia Gilmore '27	Kristin Johnson '26 Morgan Auth '27 Isabelle Kanach '25 Allison Volk '25
University of South Florida	Bulls	Ghislaine Van Empel '27 Kailey Warrior '27 Kalea Woodard '24 Kay Brunsvold '25	Catherine Brennan '26 Madisen Hamai '26 Ruth Bergman '28 Melissa Janes '26 Kailey Warrior '27 Kalea Woodard '24
Fordham University	Rams	Anna Robertson '28 Lauren Murray '28 Lizzie Cochran '27	Leah Spadaro '25 Ava Belli '28 Alana Shigekane '27 Nora Donahue '28
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	Bennett O'Keefe '27 Elizabeth Starck '25 Sabrina Starck '28	Maya Mahoney '27 Ella Donaldson '27 Laura Therien '26 Olivia Wilkins '28

Conditions — 03/08/2025 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 48% · Pressure 1008.6 hPa

Temperature

46°F

↑ 49°F ↓ 40°F

Feels like 37°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

10.3 kn

avg · max 12.9 kn

Gusts to 29.0 kn

From NW (310°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover49% Sunshine9.2 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1008.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Navy — from fleet racing

Breeze: NW about 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Navy in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled fleet-race days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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