U. S. Naval Academy '27
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 40.38 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.098 rating points from 91 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2025 | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.69 | 78.07 | 40.62 | 10 of 16 | 11 | Team page | |
| Spring 2025 | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.83 | 77.27 | 27.78 | 7 of 9 | 8 | Team page | |
| Fall 2024 | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.93 | 81.39 | 56.67 | 7 of 15 | 27 | Team page | |
| Spring 2024 | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.30 | 68.44 | 27.78 | 7 of 9 | 15 | Team page | |
| Fall 2023 | U. S. Naval Academy | 2.43 | 69.65 | 40.62 | 10 of 16 | 24 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.02 (fleet 2.71) | 205 of 331 | +0.06 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–21 (40%) as crew 42–69 (38%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 14–21 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 5 | — | 28–47 |
| Spring 2024 | 4 | — | 14–22 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 12 graded regattas (146 matches) the record is 56–90 against 56.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.9). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 14 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.30 | 3.73 | 9–7 | 4.9 | +1.43 | 4.3 | 1% |
| 2026-03-21 | Blaire Herron Memorial Women’s Team Race | skipper | 2.36 | 1.37 | 2–8 | 3.7 | −0.99 | 1.1 | 95% |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026 Jen Harris Team Race | skipper | 2.11 | 3.04 | 3–6 | 1.9 | +0.93 | 0.7 | 28% |
| 2025-04-12 | MAISA Women's Team Race Championship | crew | 1.65 | 1.22 | 7–14 | 8.6 | −0.42 | 0.5 | 86% |
| 2025-04-05 | Yale Women's Team Race | crew | 2.42 | 1.68 | 1–6 | 1.7 | −0.75 | 0.3 | 88% |
| 2025-03-22 | Georgetown Women's Team Race | crew | 1.69 | 0.20 | 3–11 | 6.3 | −1.49 | 3.4 | 99% |
| 2025-03-08 | Jen Harris Women's Team Race | crew | 1.67 | 1.25 | 8–8 | 9.0 | −0.41 | 0.3 | 84% |
| 2025-03-01 | ODU Women's Team Race | crew | 1.48 | 2.55 | 9–8 | 6.4 | +1.07 | 2.0 | 8% |
| 2024-04-13 | MAISA Women's Team Race Championships | crew | 2.30 | 3.08 | 4–4 | 3.1 | +0.78 | 0.5 | 33% |
| 2024-03-23 | Seahawk Women's Team Race | crew | 1.70 | 1.39 | 6–10 | 6.8 | −0.31 | 0.2 | 79% |
| 2024-03-16 | Washington College Open Team Race | crew | 1.09 | 0.91 | 4–2 | 4.2 | −0.18 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 2024-03-02 | ODU Women's Team Race | crew | 0.91 | -2.09 | 0–6 | 0.4 | ≤−3.00 | 0.5 | >99% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
