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Chesapeake Open

# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 29 29
2 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 49 49
3 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 58 58
4 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 61 61
5 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 91 91
6 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 99 99
7 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 106 106
8 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 111 111
9 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 115 115
10 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 127 127
11 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 6 131 131
12 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5 132 132
13 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 133 133
14 Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 147 147
15 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 5 157 157
16 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 158 158
17 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 160 160
18 U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 7 188 188
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 6 4 4 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 29 Enzo Menditto '26
Spencer Kriegstein '25
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 1 6 3 5 4 3 2 2 4 2 2 15 49 Jack Welburn '26
Linnea Forsberg '25
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 2 3 5 7 8 6 6 4 6 6 3 2 58 Henry Allgeier '27
Mary Dwyer '27
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 11 2 1 3 1 11 3 8 3 4 5 9 61 Jeffrey Petersen '25
Caro Gaston '25
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 7 7 8 10 12 2 5 6 5 16 7 6 91 Tanner Kelly '25
Darby Graham '26
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 8 1 6 4 5 4 12 11 15 18 4 11 99 Benjamin Smith '26
Alexis Tamm '26
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 15 13 2 9 7 5 7 10 14 10 11 3 106 Teddy Martin '27
Eva Ottenbreit '27
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 14 14 14 12 11 13 9 3 11 3 6 1 111 Landon Cormie '27 [1-4]
Henry Haddon '25 [5-12]
Rachel O'Neill '24 [1-4]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 4 5 10 6 2 7 15 14 17 7 15 13 115 Kelly Bates '26
Margot Gordon '26
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 3 18 17 8 13 17 8 9 10 11 8 5 127 Nathan Jensen '27
Siena Adduci '27
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 6 9 8 9 1 9 12 18 17 7 8 17 16 131 Ava Farley '26 [1-6]
Aubin Hattendorf '24 [7-12]
Hunter Anderson '24 [1-6]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5 10 10 11 16 18 9 10 7 2 5 16 18 132 Robert Ziman '25 [1-6]
Spencer Dominguez '27 [7-10]
Darby Dryden '27 [11-12]
Darby Dryden '27 [1-6]
Eleanor Niehoff '26 [7-12]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 5 9 13 14 15 10 4 15 16 13 12 7 133 Raam Fox '26 [1-12]
Mary Catherine Hill '27 [1-8]
Mary Govan '27 [9-12]
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs 12 11 18 11 6 15 16 5 12 15 14 12 147 Elizabeth Gildea '24
Morgan Auth '27
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 5 16 16 7 18 17 8 13 16 8 14 10 14 157 Lina Carper '27
Grace Phillips '27
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 17 15 12 13 16 18 17 12 9 12 9 8 158 Cho-Cho Williams '26
Emily Shioutakon '26
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 13 12 15 15 14 14 14 18 13 9 13 10 160 Xavier Stoldt '26 [1-12]
Vaughn Slatoff '26 [1-4, 6-12]
Olivia Bartilucci '24 [5]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 7 18 17 16 17 10 16 11 13 18 17 18 17 188 Margo Cicero '26 [1-6]
Josephine Sherry '27 [7-12]
Fiona Cullen '27 [1-6]
Alexander Brenia '26 [7-12]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2009 (22 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 1111111111111
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 2222222222222
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 3333333333333
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 4444444444444
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas 5555555555555
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1121212121212121212121212
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2131313131313131313131313
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3141414141414141414141414
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4151515151515151515151515
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5161616161616161616161616
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 6171717171717171717171717
U. S. Naval AcademyU. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 7181818181818181818181818
Old Dominion UniversityOld Dominion University Monarchs666666666666
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1777777777777
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2888888888888
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3999999999999
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4101010101010101010101010
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 5111111111111111111111111
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 Jeffrey Petersen '25 Caro Gaston '25
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 Enzo Menditto '26 Spencer Kriegstein '25
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 3 Benjamin Smith '26 Alexis Tamm '26
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 4 Kelly Bates '26 Margot Gordon '26
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 5 Xavier Stoldt '26 [1-12] Vaughn Slatoff '26 [1-4, 6-12]
Olivia Bartilucci '24 [5]
Old Dominion University Old Dominion University Monarchs Elizabeth Gildea '24 Morgan Auth '27
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 Cho-Cho Williams '26 Emily Shioutakon '26
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 Nathan Jensen '27 Siena Adduci '27
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3 Raam Fox '26 [1-12] Mary Catherine Hill '27 [1-8]
Mary Govan '27 [9-12]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4 Landon Cormie '27 [1-4]
Henry Haddon '25 [5-12]		 Rachel O'Neill '24 [1-4]
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 5 Lina Carper '27 Grace Phillips '27
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 Tanner Kelly '25 Darby Graham '26
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 Jack Welburn '26 Linnea Forsberg '25
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3 Henry Allgeier '27 Mary Dwyer '27
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 4 Teddy Martin '27 Eva Ottenbreit '27
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 5 Robert Ziman '25 [1-6]
Spencer Dominguez '27 [7-10]
Darby Dryden '27 [11-12]		 Darby Dryden '27 [1-6]
Eleanor Niehoff '26 [7-12]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 6 Ava Farley '26 [1-6]
Aubin Hattendorf '24 [7-12]		 Hunter Anderson '24 [1-6]
U. S. Naval Academy U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 7 Margo Cicero '26 [1-6]
Josephine Sherry '27 [7-12]		 Fiona Cullen '27 [1-6]
Alexander Brenia '26 [7-12]

Conditions — 09/16/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1015.8 hPa

Temperature

72°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 71°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 5.6 kn
Gusts to 14.8 kn
From WNW (297°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1015.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn · SE 10 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Navy: a favourites’ day (+0.03)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.14 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.23 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Navy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (114 labelled days at Navy).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →