U. S. Naval Academy '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.08 (fleet 2.79) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.06 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 45–12 (79%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 5–1 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 28–8 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 12–3 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (57 matches) the record is 45–12 against 41.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-29 | Pirate Team Racing | skipper | 2.48 | 3.61 | 5–1 | 4.0 | +1.13 | 0.8 | 32% |
| 2023-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.97 | 2.09 | 14–7 | 13.7 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 2023-03-04 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 2.07 | 2.34 | 14–1 | 13.7 | +0.26 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2022-03-19 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.33 | 2.66 | 12–3 | 9.5 | +1.33 | 2.2 | 9% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Pirate Team Racing | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall Open | Skipper | B | 13 | 2.2 | 3.00 |
| Chesapeake Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 9.5 | 1.07 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Webb/Wollum | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.3 | 1.91 |
| Chesapeake Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 12.3 | 2.29 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 67% | — |
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 93% | — |
| Owen Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 4.5 | 3.91 |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 5.5 | 2.37 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.6 | 2.45 |
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.9 | 2.35 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 80% | — |
| GW Invite | Skipper | B | 14 | 10.2 | 0.43 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.8 | 1.10 |
| Tom Curtis Memorial Regatta | Crew | B | 8 | 11.2 | — |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | B | 12 | 5.3 | 1.15 |
| Chesapeake Invitational | Skipper | B | 8 | 10.8 | 2.30 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Robert Ziman |  Carlmont |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
