Chesapeake Invitational

HostSt. Mary's
Date09/18/2021
TypeNOT ALLOWED In-Conference
Boat420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas 1	40	18	58
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas 2	41	38	79
3	Georgetown University	Hoyas 3	28	53	81
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 1	73	30	103
5	Georgetown University	Hoyas 4	62	63	125
6	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 2	66	61	127
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 3	72	58	130
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 4	57	74	131
9	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 2	77	60	137
10	Old Dominion University	Monarchs 1	66	83	149
11	Old Dominion University	Monarchs 2	93	64	157
12	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 1	90	86	176
13	Georgetown University	Hoyas 5	76	106	182
14	Old Dominion University	Monarchs 3	96	97	193
15	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 3	82	115	197
16	Washington College	Shoremen 1	90	123	213
17	Christopher Newport University	Captains	123	115	238
18	Washington College	Shoremen 2	137	125	262

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Georgetown University	Hoyas 3	2	3	9	2	1	1	4	6	28	Edward Cook '23 Audrey Fung '24
Georgetown University	Hoyas 1	1	2	3	4	3	13	13	1	40	Jack Reiter '22 Annabelle Ayer '22
Georgetown University	Hoyas 2	11	4	7	1	2	3	11	2	41	Scott Mais '23 Addi Harris '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 4	7	1	16	10	5	2	6	10	57	Katherine Bennett '22 Katherine Shermock '24
Georgetown University	Hoyas 4	14	6	2	7	10	15	1	7	62	Mateo Di Blasi '25 Caro Gaston '25
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 2	4	12	6	8	13	6	14	3	66	Caden Scheiblauer '23 Madeline Smith '24
Old Dominion University	Monarchs 1	10	8	11	5	7	8	12	5	66	Bridget Groble '22 Makalynne Dyer '22
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 3	9	14	10	13	6	5	2	13	72	Gavin Mcjones '23 Catherine Aitken '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 1	3	16	12	3	4	7	9	DSQ	73	Owen Hennessey '25 Sam Muir '22
Georgetown University	Hoyas 5	17	13	5	11	8	9	5	8	76	Joe Coyne '23 Rebekah Morrison '23
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 2	6	10	13	12	12	10	3	11	77	Charlie Anderson '25 [1-8] Zoe Hoctor '25 [1] Henry Haddon '25 [2-8]
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 3	5	7	1	16	14	14	10	15	82	Taft Buckley '25 [1-8] Benjamin Chitterling '25 [1] Lucas Masiello '23 [2-8]
Washington College	Shoremen 1	13	11	17	6	11	16	7	9	90	Stewart Gurnell '23 Andrew Tran '23
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 1	15	17	8	9	17	12	8	4	90	Cooper Walshe '25 Julia Christie '24
Old Dominion University	Monarchs 2	12	5	14	14	15	4	15	14	93	Noyl Odom '24 Isabelle Kanach '25
Old Dominion University	Monarchs 3	16	9	4	18	9	11	17	12	96	Parker Purrington '24 Katherine Barton '23
Christopher Newport University	Captains	8	18	15	17	16	17	16	16	123	Luke Hayes '22 Julia Burns '22
Washington College	Shoremen 2	18	15	18	15	18	18	18	17	137	Camden Ward '24 Kennedy Jones '24

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Georgetown University	Hoyas 1	5	1	1	1	1	1	5	3	18	Mariner Fagan '24 Jack Hogan '22
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 1	9	4	3	3	5	4	1	1	30	Keiran James Golden '24 Ellie Sekowski '23
Georgetown University	Hoyas 2	1	2	2	5	3	3	13	9	38	Thomas Mccann '22 Kathryn Winters '24
Georgetown University	Hoyas 3	4	6	8	6	2	11	3	13	53	Diego Escobar '25 Grace Flanagan '23
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 3	15	10	4	2	11	6	8	2	58	Trenton Shaw '24 Ryan Wahba '25
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 2	7	5	11	4	7	5	7	14	60	Madison Bashaw '24 Emma Gronda '22
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 2	14	12	5	8	12	2	2	6	61	Tanner Kelly '25 Linnea Forsberg '25
Georgetown University	Hoyas 4	6	8	9	10	8	8	9	5	63	Daniel Hughes '25 Morgan Rice '25
Old Dominion University	Monarchs 2	3	3	7	7	9	7	17	11	64	Andrew Ciszewski '25 Ethan Tutt '24
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 4	2	11	12	14	6	15	6	8	74	Max Kleha '25 Rachel O'Neill '24
Old Dominion University	Monarchs 1	10	15	6	11	14	12	11	4	83	John Glenn '22 Raymond Domena '23
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen 1	8	7	13	13	15	10	4	16	86	Robert Ziman '25 Hunter Anderson '24
Old Dominion University	Monarchs 3	12	16	16	9	4	16	12	12	97	Megan Geith '24 [1-4] Chris Robertson '23 [5-8] Jefferson Elkin '24 [1-4]
Georgetown University	Hoyas 5	11	9	10	12	10	18	DSQ	17	106	Spencer Kriegstein '25 [1-8] Liv Manula '23 [1] Aislinn O'Brien '22 [2-8]
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks 3	13	14	14	15	18	13	10	18	115	Lily Flack '25 [1-8] Saige Teti '23 [1] Dexter Mueller '24 [2-8]
Christopher Newport University	Captains	16	13	15	18	13	9	16	15	115	David Grace '23 Ellie Mcfall '24
Washington College	Shoremen 1	17	18	17	16	16	14	15	10	123	Max Shapiro '25 Jonathan Kelly '23
Washington College	Shoremen 2	18	17	18	17	17	17	14	7	125	Joseph Bonacci '25 Benjamin Francis '25

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.050+0.05

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2013 (41 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Christopher Newport University Captains	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2
Georgetown University Hoyas 1	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1
Georgetown University Hoyas 2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4
Georgetown University Hoyas 3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3
Georgetown University Hoyas 4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6
Georgetown University Hoyas 5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	14	14	14	14	13	13	13	13
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	16	16	16	16	15	15	15	15
Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8
Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	7
Old Dominion University Monarchs 3	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	10	10	10	10	9	9	9	9
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3	12	12	12	12	11	11	11	11
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14
Washington College Shoremen 1	17	17	17	17	18	18	18	18
Washington College Shoremen 2	18	18	18	18	17	17	17	17

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Christopher Newport University Captains	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	2
Georgetown University Hoyas 1	2	2	2	2	1	1	1	1
Georgetown University Hoyas 2	3	3	3	3	4	4	4	4
Georgetown University Hoyas 3	4	4	4	4	3	3	3	3
Georgetown University Hoyas 4	5	5	5	5	6	6	6	6
Georgetown University Hoyas 5	6	6	6	6	5	5	5	5
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1	14	14	14	14	13	13	13	13
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2	15	15	15	15	16	16	16	16
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 3	16	16	16	16	15	15	15	15
Old Dominion University Monarchs 1	7	7	7	7	8	8	8	8
Old Dominion University Monarchs 2	8	8	8	8	7	7	7	7
Old Dominion University Monarchs 3	9	9	9	9	10	10	10	10
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1	10	10	10	10	9	9	9	9
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2	11	11	11	11	12	12	12	12
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 3	12	12	12	12	11	11	11	11
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 4	13	13	13	13	14	14	14	14
Washington College Shoremen 1	17	17	17	17	18	18	18	18
Washington College Shoremen 2	18	18	18	18	17	17	17	17

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Christopher Newport University	Luke Hayes '22	Julia Burns '22
Captains	David Grace '23	Ellie Mcfall '24
Georgetown University	Jack Reiter '22	Annabelle Ayer '22
Hoyas 1	Mariner Fagan '24	Jack Hogan '22
Georgetown University	Scott Mais '23	Addi Harris '24
Hoyas 2	Thomas Mccann '22	Kathryn Winters '24
Georgetown University	Edward Cook '23	Audrey Fung '24
Hoyas 3	Diego Escobar '25	Grace Flanagan '23
Georgetown University	Mateo Di Blasi '25	Caro Gaston '25
Hoyas 4	Daniel Hughes '25	Morgan Rice '25
Georgetown University	Joe Coyne '23	Rebekah Morrison '23
Hoyas 5	Spencer Kriegstein '25 [1-8]	Liv Manula '23 [1] Aislinn O'Brien '22 [2-8]
Old Dominion University	Bridget Groble '22	Makalynne Dyer '22
Monarchs 1	John Glenn '22	Raymond Domena '23
Old Dominion University	Noyl Odom '24	Isabelle Kanach '25
Monarchs 2	Andrew Ciszewski '25	Ethan Tutt '24
Old Dominion University	Parker Purrington '24	Katherine Barton '23
Monarchs 3	Megan Geith '24 [1-4] Chris Robertson '23 [5-8]	Jefferson Elkin '24 [1-4]
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Owen Hennessey '25	Sam Muir '22
Seahawks 1	Keiran James Golden '24	Ellie Sekowski '23
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Charlie Anderson '25 [1-8]	Zoe Hoctor '25 [1] Henry Haddon '25 [2-8]
Seahawks 2	Madison Bashaw '24	Emma Gronda '22
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Taft Buckley '25 [1-8]	Benjamin Chitterling '25 [1] Lucas Masiello '23 [2-8]
Seahawks 3	Lily Flack '25 [1-8]	Saige Teti '23 [1] Dexter Mueller '24 [2-8]
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Katherine Bennett '22	Katherine Shermock '24
Seahawks 4	Max Kleha '25	Rachel O'Neill '24
U. S. Naval Academy	Cooper Walshe '25	Julia Christie '24
Midshipmen 1	Robert Ziman '25	Hunter Anderson '24
U. S. Naval Academy	Caden Scheiblauer '23	Madeline Smith '24
Midshipmen 2	Tanner Kelly '25	Linnea Forsberg '25
U. S. Naval Academy	Gavin Mcjones '23	Catherine Aitken '24
Midshipmen 3	Trenton Shaw '24	Ryan Wahba '25
Washington College	Stewart Gurnell '23	Andrew Tran '23
Shoremen 1	Max Shapiro '25	Jonathan Kelly '23
Washington College	Camden Ward '24	Kennedy Jones '24
Shoremen 2	Joseph Bonacci '25	Benjamin Francis '25

Conditions — 09/18/2021 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Mainly clear

Humidity 79% · Pressure 1018.7 hPa

Temperature

77°F

↑ 80°F ↓ 73°F

Feels like 84°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

3.2 kn

avg · max 4.8 kn

Gusts to 17.9 kn

From N (355°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover35% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity79% Pressure1018.7 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 5 kn* · N 9 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at St. Mary's: a typical day (+0.00)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment −0.13 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.13

Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.28 ± 0.09)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.00 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at St. Mary's by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled days at St. Mary's).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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