Washington College '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.24 (fleet 1.70) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 41–23 (64%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 4–5 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 5–2 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 20–16 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 12–0 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (64 matches) the record is 41–23 against 38.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.3). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 6 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.46 | 0.87 | 1–2 | 1.3 | −0.59 | 0.1 | 89% |
| 2025-03-01 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 1.37 | 1.16 | 3–3 | 3.2 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 2024-03-02 | Tom Noble Open Team Race | skipper | 1.45 | 0.93 | 5–2 | 5.6 | −0.53 | 0.2 | 86% |
| 2023-03-18 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 1.43 | 1.67 | 12–9 | 11.3 | +0.24 | 0.1 | 44% |
| 2023-03-04 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 1.41 | 1.17 | 8–7 | 8.5 | −0.24 | 0.1 | 76% |
| 2022-03-05 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 0.90 | 3.90 | 12–0 | 8.9 | ≥+3.00 | 5.2 | 2% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 20% | — |
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 57% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.6 | -1.59 |
| The Grant | Skipper | A | 12 | 5.2 | 2.22 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | A | 12 | 15.3 | 1.35 |
| 2025 Sailpack Oriental Intercollegiate Regatta | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.7 | 1.09 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | A | 18 | 14.5 | 1.51 |
| Princeton Fall Open | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.3 | 0.96 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.4 | 2.03 |
| Luce Regatta | Skipper | A | 1 | 10.0 | — |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.8 | 1.66 |
| Grant Trophy | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.2 | 1.87 |
| America Trophy - Conference Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 15.8 | 1.32 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 21 | 57% | — |
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.9 | 1.14 |
| The Grant | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.1 | 1.21 |
| Delaware River Dinghy Regatta | Skipper | A | 11 | 2.5 | 2.18 |
| America Trophy | Skipper | B | 3 | 15.7 | 0.72 |
| 85th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | B | 14 | 17.6 | 0.73 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| War Memorial | Skipper | B | 6 | 13.8 | 1.70 |
| Riley Cup | Skipper | B | 13 | 10.4 | 1.37 |
| Moody Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.7 | 1.67 |
| Luce Trophy | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 2.86 |
| David Lee Arnoff Trophy | Skipper | B | 10 | 16.0 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 12 | 100% | — |
| 84th Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup | Skipper | C | 9 | 14.7 | -0.40 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Fall | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.7 | 2.26 |
| Philly Fleet Race | Skipper | A | 12 | 8.5 | 0.59 |
| Chesapeake Invitational | Skipper | B | 8 | 15.6 | 0.63 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
