| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Hampton University | Pirates | 7–0 |
| 2 |  |
SUNY Maritime College | Privateers | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
Virginia Tech | Hokies | 5–2 |
| 4 |  |
Washington College | Shoremen | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Penn State University | Nittany Lions | 4–3 |
| 6 |  |
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | Mariners | 2–5 |
| 7 |  |
Drexel University | Dragons | 1–6 |
| 8 |  |
University of Delaware | Blue Hens | 0–7 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 25,143 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-01, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 19 of 21 matches (90%) with a log-loss of 0.277 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.49 ± 0.43: an orderly event, more orderly than 93% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hampton University | 4.92 | 7.92 | 6–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 35% |
| 2 | SUNY Maritime College | 3.27 | 4.09 | 4–2 | 3.2 | +0.81 | 0.5 | 36% |
| 3 | Virginia Tech | 3.98 | 3.94 | 4–2 | 4.0 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 4 | Washington College | 3.22 | 3.01 | 3–3 | 3.2 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 76% |
| 5 | Penn State University | 3.81 | 2.91 | 3–3 | 3.9 | −0.90 | 0.6 | 92% |
| 6 | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 1.57 | 0.30 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −1.27 | 0.4 | 97% |
| 8 | University of Delaware | -0.92 | -3.92 | 0–6 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommaso Ciaglia | Hampton University | 0.81 | 3.81 | 6–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 35% |
| Stefano Palamara | Hampton University | 1.60 | 4.60 | 6–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.4 | 35% |
| Luke Barker | SUNY Maritime College | 1.03 | 1.84 | 4–2 | 3.2 | +0.81 | 0.5 | 36% |
| Zachary Bender | Virginia Tech | 1.31 | 1.27 | 4–2 | 4.0 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Daniel Hale | Virginia Tech | 0.60 | 0.56 | 4–2 | 4.0 | −0.04 | 0.0 | 71% |
| Austin Latimer | Washington College | 0.75 | 0.55 | 3–3 | 3.2 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 76% |
| Joseph Bonacci | Washington College | 1.37 | 1.16 | 3–3 | 3.2 | −0.21 | 0.0 | 76% |
| Barrett Lhamon | Penn State University | 2.12 | 1.23 | 3–3 | 3.9 | −0.90 | 0.6 | 92% |
| Nathan Mascia | Penn State University | 0.12 | -0.78 | 3–3 | 3.9 | −0.90 | 0.6 | 92% |
| Griffin Jones | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 0.16 | -1.11 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −1.27 | 0.4 | 97% |
| Matthew Mccarvill | U. S. Merchant Marine Academy | 0.11 | -1.16 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −1.27 | 0.4 | 97% |
| Seton Dill | University of Delaware | -0.21 | -3.21 | 0–5 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Brendan Van Riper | University of Delaware | -0.45 | -3.45 | 0–4 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Benjamin Koly | University of Delaware | -0.17 | -3.17 | 0–5 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| Myles Wommack | University of Delaware | -0.62 | -3.62 | 0–4 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Team | Rec. | Pirates | Privateers | Hokies | Shoremen | Lions | Mariners | Dragons | Hens | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hampton University Pirates | 7–0 | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W | W | W |
| SUNY Maritime College Privateers | 5–2 | L | ✕ | W | W | L | W | W | W |
| Virginia Tech Hokies | 5–2 | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W | W |
| Washington College Shoremen | 4–3 | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W | W |
| Penn State University Nittany Lions | 4–3 | L | W | L | L | ✕ | W | W | W |
| U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners | 2–5 | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W | W |
| Drexel University Dragons | 1–6 | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ | W |
| University of Delaware Blue Hens | 0–7 | L | L | L | L | L | L | L | ✕ |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Dragons | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 2-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Pirates | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Nittany Lions | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Privateers | 2-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Hokies | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Shoremen | 2-4-6 |
| 5 | |
Mariners | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Dragons | 3-4-5 |
| 6 | |
Privateers | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Hokies | 2-3-6 |
| 7 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Nittany Lions | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Pirates | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Nittany Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Pirates | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Privateers | 3-4-5 |
| 11 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Hokies | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 13 | |
Privateers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 4-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Nittany Lions | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 15 | |
Pirates | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Mariners | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 3-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Hokies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Nittany Lions | 4-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Privateers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Pirates | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Hokies | 4-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Hokies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Nittany Lions | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 3-4-6 |
| 23 | |
Privateers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Mariners | 3-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Pirates | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 4-5-6 |
| 25 | |
Shoremen | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dragons | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Pirates | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Nittany Lions | 2-3-6 |
| 27 | |
Privateers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Shoremen | 1-5-6 |
| 28 | |
Hokies | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Blue Hens | 4-5-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
