U. S. Merchant Marine Academy '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.33 (fleet 0.44) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 3–27 (10%) as crew 0–1 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 3 | 3–27 | 0–1 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (30 matches) the record is 3–27 against 2.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-22 | Admiral Moore Team Race | skipper | 0.20 | 1.90 | 2–12 | 0.5 | +1.70 | 2.1 | 9% |
| 2025-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 0.22 | -2.78 | 0–10 | 0.1 | ≤−3.00 | 0.1 | >99% |
| 2025-03-01 | Tom Noble Team Race | skipper | 0.11 | -1.16 | 1–5 | 1.5 | −1.27 | 0.4 | 97% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Stony Brook Fall Open | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.7 | 0.08 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 11.8 | — |
| Northeast Qualifier 1 | Skipper | A | 3 | 3.7 | 0.66 |
| KP Dinghy Open | Skipper | A | 1 | 11.0 | — |
| John Quinn | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.8 | 2.79 |
| Jesuit Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 15.2 | -0.84 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Stony Brook Cup (Brendan Brown-McCue Memorial) | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.4 | 0.20 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | A | 2 | 13.0 | -0.14 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Northeast Qualifier #1 | Skipper | B | 5 | 3.0 | 0.36 |
| Lake Virginia Invitational | Skipper | A | 6 | 13.3 | — |
| The John Quinn | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.6 | 0.55 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Tom Noble Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 29% | — |
| Owen Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 18.0 | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 0% | — |
| Engineer's Cup Open | Crew | B | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| Admiral Moore Team Race | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Stony Brook Fall Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 6.2 | -0.30 |
| The John Quinn | Skipper | A | 4 | 5.5 | -0.65 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
