Stony Brook Fall Open

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 13 14 27
2 Columbia University Columbia University Lions 29 8 37
3 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 14 38 52
4 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 36 26 62
5 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 28 37 65
6 Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 21 47 68
7 SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 46 34 80
8 U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 57 51 108
9 Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 56 MRP 59 MRP 115 MRP
10 Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 70 MRP 56 MRP 126 MRP
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 1 1 3 4 2 2 13 James Owen '25
Ava Belli '28
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 2 4 4 2 1 1 14 Calvin Marsh '28
Erik Lunn '28
Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 6 6 1 1 3 4 21 Alan Becker '27
Mary Powell '27
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 4 2 6 3 5 8 28 Robert Finora '27
Caleb Scheaffer '27
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 3 7 2 5 6 6 29 Elizabeth Frost '27
Alexander Yuen '25
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 7 3 7 6 8 5 36 Rose Von Eckartsberg '25
Margaret Myers-Aldous '25
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 10 8 9 8 4 7 46 Alexandra Leen '28
Avery Connor '27
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 5 9 5 7 7 3 56 MRP Tucker Ballou '26 [1-6]
Shay Gualdoni '25 [1-3]
Braden Haulman '26 [4-6]
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 8 10 10 10 10 9 57 Sarra Salah '26
Ella Dieterlen '27
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 9 5 8 9 9 10 70 MRP Anthony Webster '25 [1-3, 5-6]
Gianmarco Costa '26 [4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Columbia University Columbia University Lions 1 2 1 2 1 1 8 Eva Decastro '28
Chase O'Malley '26
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 3 3 3 1 2 2 14 Robert Upton '27
Alana Shigekane '27
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1 6 4 6 3 3 4 26 Ernest Glukhov '27
Ella Musso '26
SUNY Stony Brook SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2 2 6 5 10 6 5 34 Sophia Dimont '27
Alexa Bolen '28
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2 7 7 9 6 5 3 37 Matthew Mccarvill '28
Daniel Lee '28
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1 8 9 7 4 4 6 38 Griffin Jones '28
Isaac Lee '28
Hamilton College Hamilton College Continentals 9 8 4 9 8 9 47 Reid Chapman '27
Clemens Robinson '28
U. S. Military Academy U. S. Military Academy Black Knights 10 10 10 7 7 7 51 Matthew Knutson '25 [1-3]
Gabriel Kunze '25 [4-6]
Nic Delia '25 [1-3]
Justin Mcdaniel '27 [4-6]
Stevens Institute of Technology Stevens Institute of Technology Ducks 5 1 2 8 10 10 56 MRP Anthony Webster '25 [1-3, 5-6]
Gianmarco Costa '26 [4]
Syracuse University Syracuse University Orange 4 5 8 5 9 8 59 MRP Collin Ross '25 [1-3]
Heath Megnin '26 [4-6]
Jack Cossari '26 [1-3]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.050+0.05
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (23 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights101010222
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions111333
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams222444
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Continentals333555
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1888101010
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2999111
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks666888
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1444666
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2555777
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange777999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
U. S. Military AcademyU. S. Military Academy Black Knights111333
Columbia UniversityColumbia University Lions222444
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams333555
Hamilton CollegeHamilton College Continentals444666
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 1999111
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 2101010222
Stevens Institute of TechnologyStevens Institute of Technology Ducks777999
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 1555777
SUNY Stony BrookSUNY Stony Brook Seawolves 2666888
Syracuse UniversitySyracuse University Orange888101010

Conditions — 10/05/2024 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 59%  ·  Pressure 1020.3 hPa

Temperature

69°F
↑ 74°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 68°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.6 kn
avg  ·  max 7.9 kn
Gusts to 17.7 kn
From N (353°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover4% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1020.3 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stony Brook: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.09 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.07
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stony Brook by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (15 labelled days at Stony Brook).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →