Fordham University '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.74 (fleet 2.38) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–9 (40%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 2–3 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 1 | 4–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 6–9 against 5.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-15 | Washington College Team Race | skipper | 2.09 | 1.05 | 2–3 | 2.9 | −1.03 | 0.7 | 94% |
| 2024-03-16 | Washington College Open Team Race | skipper | 1.58 | 2.89 | 4–6 | 2.2 | +1.31 | 1.8 | 11% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Team Race | Skipper | TR | 5 | 40% | — |
| Hanbury Trophy | Skipper | B | 9 | 8.3 | -0.03 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Stony Brook Fall Open | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.2 | 3.12 |
| NY Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | A | 13 | 4.9 | 1.96 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 16.8 | 0.46 |
| Jesuit Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.9 | 0.88 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Washington College Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| Stony Brook Cup (Brendan Brown-McCue Memorial) | Skipper | B | 3 | 2.0 | 2.41 |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 6 | 12.8 | 1.77 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Savin Hill Invite | Skipper | B | 8 | 8.4 | 2.78 |
| New York Maritime Fall Open | Skipper | B | 4 | 4.0 | 2.89 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Jesuit Invite | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.6 | 1.85 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
