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# SchoolTeam TOT
1 University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers 112
2 U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners 355
3 Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen 368
4 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 384
5 Princeton University Princeton University Tigers 472
6 SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers 605
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers B 1 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 BKD BYE 4 2 3 5 31 Ian Fox '28
Anna Hoffman '26
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers C 3 2 3 1 3 1 2 4 4 1 5 1 5 3 38 Ian Lent '28
Sadie Yoder '28
University of Pennsylvania University of Pennsylvania Quakers A 2 6 1 6 4 8 3 1 2 3 1 3 2 1 43 Drew D’Orsi '28
Amelia Popp '25
Fordham University Fordham University Rams A 4 3 6 4 2 6 4 8 6 2 9 13 1 14 82 James Owen '25
Isabela Hillmann '27
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen B 5 7 4 9 10 7 14 6 1 4 BYE BYE 6 2 87 James Kopack '28
Maya Mahoney '27
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners A 10 9 8 5 9 4 10 9 BYE BYE 6 8 4 4 100 Lewis Bragg '26 [1-14]
Rey Jacob Alino '25 [1-9]
Logan Forward '28 [10-14]
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners B 6 5 10 2 6 11 9 15 16 8 3 12 10 11 124 Annika Vanderhorst '27 [1-9]
Aubrey Walton '27 [10-12]
Calvin Marsh '28 [13-14]
Burton Keck '27 [1-6, 10-12]
Sean Warwick '28 [7-9]
Isaac Lee '28 [13-14]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers B 11 4 5 12 14 3 6 13 12 13 BYE BYE 7 7 125 Carly Mraz '25
Virginia Cobbs '25
Fordham University Fordham University Rams B 15 13 7 13 15 14 7 3 5 6 8 4 BYE BYE 128 Anna Robertson '28
Alana Shigekane '27
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners C 12 11 14 10 13 13 15 5 8 9 2 5 8 6 131 Robert Finora '27 [1-14]
Rafael Esparza '28 [1-2]
Caleb Scheaffer '27 [3-14]
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen C 8 10 9 7 12 10 12 10 7 7 7 7 11 15 132 Jack Guinness '28
Piper Torrey '28
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen A 13 14 16 14 8 9 5 7 11 5 12 14 12 9 149 Nicolas Garcia-Castrillon '26
Reilly Roedel '27
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers A 14 16 11 11 7 5 11 11 9 14 16 11 16 12 164 Jasper Waldman '25
Kaitlyn Greppin '26
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers A 16 12 12 8 5 12 8 16 13 11 15 6 15 16 165 Tyler Mendes '25 [1-14]
Michael Saharov '28 [1-12]
Kristofer Litwinko '28 [13-14]
Fordham University Fordham University Rams C 7 15 13 15 16 15 16 12 10 12 14 10 9 10 174 Thomas Martino '28 [1-8]
Robert Upton '27 [9-14]
Ava Belli '28 [1-13]
Alana Shigekane '27 [14]
Princeton University Princeton University Tigers C 9 8 15 16 11 17 17 14 15 15 10 15 13 8 183 Eddie O’Keefe '25
John Morgan Griffith '28
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers C 18 18 18 18 17 18 18 17 17 10 13 9 14 13 218 Jackson Bachner '28 [1-3]
Andrew Mccarthy '28 [4-6]
Andrew Embry '28 [7-9]
Isabelle Gautier '26 [10-14]
Andrew Mccarthy '28 [1-3, 13-14]
Jackson Bachner '28 [4]
Andrew Embry '28 [5-6, 10-12]
Kristofer Litwinko '28 [7-9]
SUNY Maritime College SUNY Maritime College Privateers B 17 17 17 17 18 16 13 18 14 16 11 16 BYE BYE 222 John Donnelly '25 [1-14]
Benjamin Landerer '28 [1-8]
Benjamin Bettinger '28 [9-14]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.080+0.08
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams11112222333344
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen22221111181818181717
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners55556666777788
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers44443333222211
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers66665555444433
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers33334444555566

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams7777888899991010
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen88887777666655
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners1111111112121212131313131414
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers101010109999888877
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers12121212111111111010101099
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers999910101010111111111212

Division C

Team1C2C3C4C5C6C7C8C9C10C11C12C13C14C
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams1313131314141414151515151616
Hobart and William Smith CollegesHobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen1414141413131313121212121111
U. S. Merchant Marine AcademyU. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners1717171718181818111122
SUNY Maritime CollegeSUNY Maritime College Privateers1616161615151515141414141313
University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Pennsylvania Quakers1818181817171717161616161515
Princeton UniversityPrinceton University Tigers1515151516161616171717171818

Conditions — 09/21/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 53%  ·  Pressure 1015.0 hPa

Temperature

73°F
↑ 79°F   ↓ 62°F
Feels like 72°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.6 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 17.5 kn
From NE (37°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover73% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity53% Pressure1015.0 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 9 kn · E 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Fordham: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.07 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Fordham by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (25 labelled days at Fordham).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →