University of Pennsylvania '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.37 (fleet 3.26) | 146 of 331 | +0.01 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 52–55 (49%) as crew 1–2 (33%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 5 | 31–35 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 4 | 21–20 | 1–2 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (110 matches) the record is 53–57 against 52.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.8). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | ICSA Open Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.95 | 4.13 | 7–8 | 4.0 | +1.18 | 2.7 | 5% |
| 2026-04-04 | Prosser Trophy MAISA Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.95 | 2.39 | 6–8 | 7.3 | −0.56 | 0.5 | 89% |
| 2026-03-21 | KP Open Team Race | skipper | 2.91 | 3.53 | 7–2 | 6.1 | +0.62 | 0.4 | 38% |
| 2026-03-14 | Graham Hall Team Race | skipper | 3.02 | 2.44 | 8–12 | 9.7 | −0.58 | 0.7 | 90% |
| 2026-03-07 | John Jackson Memorial Team Race | skipper | 2.83 | 2.02 | 3–5 | 4.3 | −0.81 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 2025-03-22 | KP Open Team Race | skipper | 2.84 | 2.71 | 7–9 | 7.4 | −0.13 | 0.0 | 69% |
| 2025-03-15 | Graham Hall Team Race | crew | 3.08 | 0.72 | 1–2 | 1.5 | −2.37 | 0.7 | >99% |
| 2025-03-08 | John Jackson Memorial Regatta | skipper | 2.66 | 3.56 | 11–6 | 8.2 | +0.89 | 1.8 | 10% |
| 2025-03-01 | GW Team Race | skipper | 2.27 | 1.82 | 3–5 | 3.7 | −0.46 | 0.2 | 84% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Open Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 2 | 18.0 | — |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.5 | 3.32 |
| KP Dinghy Open Invite | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.4 | 1.61 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Open Invite | Skipper | A | 1 | 6.0 | — |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Prosser Trophy MAISA Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| KP Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 9 | 78% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
| ICSA Open Team Race National Championship | Skipper | TR | 15 | 47% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Skipper | TR | 20 | 40% | — |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Oyster Bowl | Skipper | A | 8 | 5.4 | 3.66 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 4 | 9.2 | 3.18 |
| KP Open Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.1 | 1.70 |
| Jack Boehringer '52 Open Invite | Skipper | C | 11 | 6.7 | 1.06 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| KP Open Team Race | Skipper | TR | 17 | 47% | — |
| John Jackson Memorial Regatta | Skipper | TR | 17 | 65% | — |
| GW Team Race | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Graham Hall Team Race | Crew | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Oyster Bowl | Skipper | B | 8 | 7.8 | 1.82 |
| Nevins Trophy | Skipper | B | 14 | 9.8 | 2.88 |
| Jesuit Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 3.1 | 2.17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
