Prosser Trophy MAISA Open Team Race Championship

HostCornell
Date04/04/2026
TypeConference Championship
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	13–1
2	Georgetown University	Hoyas	13–1
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	7–7
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	7–7
5	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	6–8
6	Fordham University	Rams	4–10
7	George Washington University	Revolutionaries	3–11
8	Old Dominion University	Monarchs	3–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 30,349 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 45 of 58 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.430 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.15 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 61% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1	11.57 school +0.23	Nathan Smith / Ellie Alex 3.95 Henry Allgeier / Fiona Cullen 3.72 Jack Welburn / Darby Graham 3.67	81%	14–1 (93%)	+1.8
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	2	11.48 school +0.33	Peter Barnard / Teddy Stoldt 3.55 Enzo Menditto / Margot Gordon 3.80 Peter Herlihy / Scarlett Harris 3.78	80%	13–2 (87%)	+1.1
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5	9.61 school +0.18	Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones / Jamie Mcguffee 3.25 Jj Klempen / Stella Kim 3.34 James Kopack / Laura Therien 2.80	45%	8–7 (53%)	+1.3
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3	10.58 school +0.54	Raam Fox / Jane Wright 3.21 Landon Cormie / Emily Shioutakon 3.41 Nathan Jensen / Brooke Bertrand 3.40	66%	7–8 (47%)	−3.0
5	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4	9.90 school +0.13	Cole Woodworth / Noelle Yuen 3.25 Jackson Mcaliley / Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse 3.50 Drew D’Orsi / Adra Ivancich 2.99	53%	6–8 (43%)	−1.4
6	Fordham University Rams	6	8.60	Lucas Thress / Ashley Abboud 2.74 Patrick Shachoy / Caroline Newton 2.72 Jacob Zils / Andalucia Pilcher 3.12	26%	4–10 (29%)	+0.4
7	George Washington University Revolutionaries	8	8.37 school +0.05	Tyler Wood / Caitlyn Schwartz 3.15 Jedidiah Bechtel / Kaya Alper-Nocera 2.56 Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia / Ilana Umanskiy 2.56	22%	3–11 (21%)	−0.0
8	Old Dominion University Monarchs	7	8.42 school +0.24	Blake Goodwin / Cadence Goodnight 2.78 Diogo Silva / Lindsey Kaufmann 2.90 2–10 Pierce Brindley / Madison Bivins 2.53 2–10 Diogo Silva / Helena Allocco 2.62 1–1 Pierce Brindley / Caspian Collett 2.55 1–1	22%	3–11 (21%)	−0.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	U. S. Naval Academy	11.57	12.90	14–1	12.2	+1.33	1.5	17%
2	Georgetown University	11.48	12.09	13–2	12.0	+0.61	0.4	36%
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	9.61	10.09	8–7	6.7	+0.49	0.5	31%
6	Fordham University	8.60	8.79	4–10	3.6	+0.19	0.1	51%
7	George Washington University	8.37	8.36	3–11	3.0	−0.01	0.0	63%
8	Old Dominion University	8.42	8.34	3–11	3.2	−0.08	0.0	67%
5	University of Pennsylvania	9.90	9.32	6–8	7.4	−0.58	0.6	89%
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland	10.58	9.46	7–8	10.0	−1.12	2.4	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Nathan Smith	U. S. Naval Academy	3.95	5.27	14–1	12.2	+1.33	1.5	17%
Henry Allgeier	U. S. Naval Academy	3.72	5.04	14–1	12.2	+1.33	1.5	17%
Jack Welburn	U. S. Naval Academy	3.67	4.99	14–1	12.2	+1.33	1.5	17%
Peter Barnard	Georgetown University	3.55	4.16	13–2	12.0	+0.61	0.4	36%
Enzo Menditto	Georgetown University	3.80	4.41	13–2	12.0	+0.61	0.4	36%
Peter Herlihy	Georgetown University	3.78	4.39	13–2	12.0	+0.61	0.4	36%
Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.25	3.74	8–7	6.7	+0.49	0.5	31%
Jj Klempen	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	3.34	3.83	8–7	6.7	+0.49	0.5	31%
James Kopack	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	2.80	3.29	8–7	6.7	+0.49	0.5	31%
Lucas Thress	Fordham University	2.74	2.93	4–10	3.6	+0.19	0.1	51%
Patrick Shachoy	Fordham University	2.72	2.91	4–10	3.6	+0.19	0.1	51%
Jacob Zils	Fordham University	3.12	3.31	4–10	3.6	+0.19	0.1	51%
Tyler Wood	George Washington University	3.15	3.13	3–11	3.0	−0.01	0.0	63%
Jedidiah Bechtel	George Washington University	2.56	2.54	3–11	3.0	−0.01	0.0	63%
Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia	George Washington University	2.56	2.55	3–11	3.0	−0.01	0.0	63%
Blake Goodwin	Old Dominion University	2.78	2.70	3–11	3.2	−0.08	0.0	67%
Diogo Silva	Old Dominion University	2.90	2.82	3–11	3.2	−0.08	0.0	67%
Pierce Brindley	Old Dominion University	2.53	2.45	3–11	3.2	−0.08	0.0	67%
Cole Woodworth	University of Pennsylvania	3.25	2.67	6–8	7.4	−0.58	0.6	89%
Jackson Mcaliley	University of Pennsylvania	3.50	2.92	6–8	7.4	−0.58	0.6	89%
Drew D’Orsi	University of Pennsylvania	2.99	2.41	6–8	7.4	−0.58	0.6	89%
Raam Fox	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.21	2.09	7–8	10.0	−1.12	2.4	99%
Landon Cormie	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.41	2.30	7–8	10.0	−1.12	2.4	99%
Nathan Jensen	St. Mary's College of Maryland	3.40	2.28	7–8	10.0	−1.12	2.4	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	43%	upset
1	2	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	89%
1	3	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	96%
1	4	Georgetown University	Fordham University	95%
1	5	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	73%
1	6	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	84%
1	7	Old Dominion University	Fordham University	47%	upset
1	8	Georgetown University	George Washington University	96%
1	9	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
1	10	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	73%
1	11	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	83%
1	12	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	95%
1	13	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	95%
1	14	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	90%
1	15	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Old Dominion University	76%
1	16	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	83%
1	17	Fordham University	George Washington University	56%
1	18	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	96%
1	19	St. Mary's College of Maryland	University of Pennsylvania	66%
1	20	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	87%
1	21	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	48%	upset
1	22	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	21%	upset
1	23	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	88%
1	24	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	71%
1	25	University of Pennsylvania	Old Dominion University	85%
1	26	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	77%
1	27	Fordham University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	12%	upset
1	28	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	48%	upset
1	58	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	27%	upset
2	29	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	57%
2	30	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Old Dominion University	89%
2	31	U. S. Naval Academy	George Washington University	96%
2	32	Georgetown University	Fordham University	95%
2	33	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	St. Mary's College of Maryland	27%	upset
2	34	U. S. Naval Academy	University of Pennsylvania	84%
2	35	Fordham University	Old Dominion University	53%
2	36	Georgetown University	George Washington University	96%
2	37	U. S. Naval Academy	St. Mary's College of Maryland	73%
2	38	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	73%
2	39	University of Pennsylvania	George Washington University	82%
2	40	Georgetown University	Old Dominion University	95%
2	41	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	95%
2	42	St. Mary's College of Maryland	George Washington University	90%
2	43	Old Dominion University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	24%	upset
2	44	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	83%
2	45	George Washington University	Fordham University	45%	upset
2	46	U. S. Naval Academy	Old Dominion University	96%
2	47	University of Pennsylvania	St. Mary's College of Maryland	34%	upset
2	48	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	87%
2	49	George Washington University	Old Dominion University	49%	upset
2	50	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	79%
2	51	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	88%
2	52	Georgetown University	St. Mary's College of Maryland	71%
2	53	Old Dominion University	University of Pennsylvania	15%	upset
2	54	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	George Washington University	77%
2	55	St. Mary's College of Maryland	Fordham University	88%
2	56	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	52%
2	57	U. S. Naval Academy	Georgetown University	52%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Statesmen	Seahawks	Quakers	Rams	Revolutionaries	Monarchs
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	7–0	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	5–3	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	4–4	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	2–5	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W
Fordham University Rams	3–4	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	L
George Washington University Revolutionaries	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Midshipmen	Hoyas	Statesmen	Seahawks	Quakers	Rams	Revolutionaries	Monarchs
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	8–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–2	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	3–4	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W	L
St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	3–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–3	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W	L
Fordham University Rams	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	W
George Washington University Revolutionaries	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
Old Dominion University Monarchs	2–5	L	L	W	L	W	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Statesmen	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
2	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
3	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	1-5-6
4	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
5	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Statesmen	3-4-6
6	Midshipmen	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
7	Monarchs	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
8	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
9	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
10	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
11	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
12	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
13	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
14	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
15	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
16	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
17	Rams	2-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	1-5-6
18	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Monarchs	3-5-6
19	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
20	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Statesmen	4-5-6
21	Revolutionaries	2-3-5	def.	Monarchs	1-4-6
22	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
23	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
24	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
25	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
26	Statesmen	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
27	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Seahawks	2-3-6
28	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
58	Statesmen	1-3-5	def.	Seahawks	2-4-6
29	Quakers	2-3-4	def.	Statesmen	1-5-6
30	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
31	Midshipmen	2-3-4	def.	Revolutionaries	1-5-6
32	Hoyas	1-3-6	def.	Rams	2-4-5
33	Statesmen	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
34	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
35	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Monarchs	3-4-5
36	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Revolutionaries	4-5-6
37	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Seahawks	3-4-6
38	Statesmen	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
39	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
40	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Monarchs	4-5-6
41	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
42	Seahawks	1-2-5	def.	Revolutionaries	3-4-6
43	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
44	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
45	Revolutionaries	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
46	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Monarchs	3-4-6
47	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Seahawks	3-5-6
48	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Statesmen	3-4-5
49	Revolutionaries	2-3-4	def.	Monarchs	1-5-6
50	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
51	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Statesmen	3-5-6
52	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Seahawks	3-4-5
53	Monarchs	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
54	Statesmen	1-2-4	def.	Revolutionaries	3-5-6
55	Seahawks	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
56	Midshipmen	1-2-5	def.	Hoyas	3-4-6
57	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Hoyas	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Henry Allgeier '27 Jack Welburn '26 Nathan Smith '26	Fiona Cullen '27 Darby Graham '26 Ellie Alex '26
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Enzo Menditto '26 Peter Barnard '27 Peter Herlihy '29	Margot Gordon '26 Teddy Stoldt '28 Scarlett Harris '28
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Statesmen	James Kopack '28 Jj Klempen '27 Juan Carlos Lacerda Jones '26	Laura Therien '26 Stella Kim '27 Jamie Mcguffee '29
St. Mary's College of Maryland	Seahawks	Landon Cormie '27 Nathan Jensen '27 Raam Fox '26	Emily Shioutakon '26 Brooke Bertrand '26 Jane Wright '28
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Cole Woodworth '26 Drew D’Orsi '28 Jackson Mcaliley '27	Noelle Yuen '29 Adra Ivancich '26 Eva Gonzalez-Whitehouse '26
Fordham University	Rams	Jacob Zils '27 Lucas Thress '26 Patrick Shachoy '28	Andalucia Pilcher '28 Ashley Abboud '26 Caroline Newton '27
George Washington University	Revolutionaries	Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Jedidiah Bechtel '26 Tyler Wood '26	Ilana Umanskiy '29 Kaya Alper-Nocera '27 Caitlyn Schwartz '28
Old Dominion University	Monarchs	Blake Goodwin '27 Diogo Silva '26 Pierce Brindley '28	Cadence Goodnight '26 Lindsey Kaufmann '26 Helena Allocco '29 Madison Bivins '29 Caspian Collett '29

Conditions — 04/04/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 67% · Pressure 1020.6 hPa

Temperature

55°F

↑ 68°F ↓ 39°F

Feels like 51°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.1 kn

avg · max 10.9 kn

Gusts to 22.4 kn

From ESE (120°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover62% Sunshine9.5 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1020.6 hPa Rain0.03 in

What this breeze does at Cornell — from fleet racing

Breeze: SE about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Cornell in this breeze: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cornell by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (70 labelled fleet-race days at Cornell).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu