University of Pennsylvania '26
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 58.56 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.102 rating points from 66 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | University of Pennsylvania | 2.75 | 80.19 | 43.75 | 5 of 8 | 32 | Team page | |
| Fall 2025 | University of Pennsylvania | 2.80 | 79.53 | 37.50 | 8 of 12 | 10 | Team page | |
| Spring 2023 | University of Pennsylvania | 3.51 | 84.68 | 61.11 | 4 of 9 | 12 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.14 (fleet 2.91) | 189 of 328 | +0.03 ± 0.15 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 45–65 (41%) as crew 41–35 (54%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 6 | 7–15 | 28–29 |
| Spring 2025 | 5 | 31–45 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 4 | 7–5 | 13–6 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 14 graded regattas (184 matches) the record is 85–99 against 82.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.7). 4 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 6 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 16 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | ICSA Open Team Race National Championship | crew | 2.99 | 4.15 | 7–8 | 4.0 | +1.16 | 2.6 | 5% |
| 2026-04-11 | MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.80 | 2.23 | 3–10 | 4.2 | −0.57 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2026-04-04 | Prosser Trophy MAISA Open Team Race Championship | crew | 2.99 | 2.41 | 6–8 | 7.4 | −0.58 | 0.6 | 89% |
| 2026-03-21 | KP Open Team Race | crew | 2.96 | 3.54 | 7–2 | 6.2 | +0.58 | 0.3 | 40% |
| 2026-03-14 | Graham Hall Team Race | crew | 3.47 | 2.87 | 8–11 | 9.7 | −0.61 | 0.8 | 91% |
| 2026-03-07 | 2026 Jen Harris Team Race | skipper | 2.69 | 5.14 | 4–5 | 1.0 | +2.45 | 5.9 | 1% |
| 2025-04-27 | ICSA Women's Team Race National Championship | skipper | 2.54 | 1.64 | 1–10 | 2.0 | −0.90 | 0.6 | 91% |
| 2025-04-12 | MAISA Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.51 | 2.38 | 11–10 | 11.5 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 71% |
| 2025-03-22 | Georgetown Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.46 | 1.82 | 5–9 | 6.6 | −0.64 | 0.7 | 91% |
| 2025-03-08 | Jen Harris Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.35 | 3.11 | 9–7 | 7.1 | +0.76 | 1.1 | 18% |
| 2025-03-01 | ODU Women's Team Race | skipper | 2.37 | 1.51 | 5–9 | 6.6 | −0.86 | 0.9 | 94% |
| 2023-04-01 | Finger Lakes Women's Team Race | skipper | 1.90 | 2.17 | 7–5 | 6.4 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2023-03-11 | St. Mary's Women's Team Race | crew | 2.81 | 3.18 | 4–4 | 3.5 | +0.37 | 0.1 | 49% |
| 2023-03-04 | ODU Women's Team Race | crew | 2.71 | 4.03 | 8–1 | 6.2 | +1.32 | 1.5 | 17% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Adra Ivancich |  Redondo Union High School |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
