Georgetown Women's Team Race

HostGeorgetown
Date03/22/2025
TypeCross Regional
BoatFJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Georgetown University	Hoyas	12–2
2	Cornell University	Big Red	11–3
3	Dartmouth College	Big Green	9–5
4	Tufts University	Jumbos	9–5
5	University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	5–9
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Herons	4–10
7	Fordham University	Rams	3–11
7	U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	3–11

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 26,169 team race matches sailed before 2025-03-22, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 41 of 57 matches (72%) with a log-loss of 0.558 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.33 ± 0.25: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 17% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	1	10.28 school +0.30, home +0.36	Kelly Bates / Anna Brzezinski 3.14 Emily Doble / Morgan Rice 3.07 Piper Holthus / Scarlett Harris 3.39 11–1 Piper Holthus / Lucy Jervis 3.32 1–1	92%	12–2 (86%)	−0.9
2	Cornell University Big Red	2	8.71 school −0.12	Bridget Green / Kate Moran 3.65 7–1 Gilda Dondona / Sophia Mulvania 2.79 6–2 Ava Gustafson / Sophia Mulvania 2.51 5–1 Bridget Green / Hope Campbell 3.61 4–2 Gilda Dondona / Hope Campbell 2.65 4–0 Ava Gustafson / Ava Stevens 2.36 3–1 Ava Gustafson / Kate Moran 2.42 3–1 Gilda Dondona / Ava Stevens 2.65 1–1	68%	11–3 (79%)	+1.4
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	3	8.47 school +0.26	Bella Casaretto / Faye Benjamin 3.17 Olivia Drulard / Sudi Zhao Charlotte West / Sophie Menyhart	65%	10–5 (67%)	+0.3
4	Tufts University Jumbos	7	7.26 school +0.22	Maisie Macgillivray / Eloise Goedkoop 2.23 Sophia Hubbard / Lilly Ladd 2.58 Meredith Broadus / Nicole Morikawa 2.24 4–5 Kiana Beachy / Annabel De Alessi 2.16 5–1	37%	9–6 (60%)	+3.4
5	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4	7.69 school +0.26	Esme Gonzalez / Janet Fu 1.62 Adra Ivancich / Caroline Dannacher 2.46 Sofia Segalla / Hannah Bast 3.31	47%	5–9 (36%)	−1.6
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	6	7.26 school +0.16	Deana Fedulova / Maya Mahoney Sabrina Starck / Olivia Wilkins 2.02 Elizabeth Starck / Laura Therien 2.59 3–5 Elizabeth Starck / Ella Donaldson 2.47 1–5	37%	4–10 (29%)	−1.2
7	Fordham University Rams	8	5.37 school +0.07	Lizzie Cochran / Nora Donahue 2.31 Lauren Murray / Alana Shigekane 1.58 Anna Robertson / Leah Spadaro 1.37	8%	3–11 (21%)	+1.9
7	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	5	7.59 school +0.24	Kate Zurinskas / Josephine Sherry 1.69 Eva Blauvelt / Sarah Mcnelly 3.03 2–10 Ava Farley / Maggie Schuler 2.58 2–6 Ava Farley / Darby Dryden 2.58 1–5 Eva Blauvelt / Maggie Schuler 3.19 1–1	45%	3–11 (21%)	−3.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
7	Fordham University	5.37	6.64	3–11	1.1	+1.28	2.0	8%
4	Tufts University	7.26	8.49	9–6	5.6	+1.23	3.1	4%
2	Cornell University	8.71	9.43	11–3	9.6	+0.72	0.7	27%
3	Dartmouth College	8.47	8.57	10–5	9.7	+0.10	0.0	57%
6	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	7.26	6.71	4–10	5.2	−0.54	0.5	87%
5	University of Pennsylvania	7.69	7.05	5–9	6.6	−0.64	0.7	91%
1	Georgetown University	10.28	9.55	12–2	12.9	−0.73	0.5	92%
7	U. S. Naval Academy	7.59	6.10	3–11	6.3	−1.49	3.4	99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Anna Robertson	Fordham University	1.37	2.64	3–11	1.1	+1.28	2.0	8%
Gilda Dondona	Cornell University	2.79	3.51	11–3	9.6	+0.72	0.7	27%
Ava Gustafson	Cornell University	2.51	3.22	11–3	9.6	+0.72	0.7	27%
Bella Casaretto	Dartmouth College	3.17	3.27	10–5	9.7	+0.10	0.0	57%
Meredith Broadus	Tufts University	2.24	2.30	4–5	3.9	+0.06	0.0	62%
Esme Gonzalez	University of Pennsylvania	1.62	0.99	5–9	6.6	−0.64	0.7	91%
Adra Ivancich	University of Pennsylvania	2.46	1.82	5–9	6.6	−0.64	0.7	91%
Kate Zurinskas	U. S. Naval Academy	1.69	0.20	3–11	6.3	−1.49	3.4	99%
Ava Farley	U. S. Naval Academy	2.58	1.08	3–11	6.3	−1.49	3.4	99%
Eva Blauvelt	U. S. Naval Academy	3.03	1.54	3–11	6.3	−1.49	3.4	99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
1	2	U. S. Naval Academy	Fordham University	90%
1	3	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	75%
1	4	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	74%
1	5	Georgetown University	Fordham University	99%
1	6	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	78%
1	7	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	53%
1	8	Cornell University	Tufts University	80%
1	9	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	96%
1	10	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	93%
1	11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Tufts University	47%	upset
1	12	Cornell University	U. S. Naval Academy	76%
1	13	Dartmouth College	University of Pennsylvania	68%
1	14	Tufts University	Fordham University	87%
1	15	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
1	16	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	80%
1	17	Tufts University	University of Pennsylvania	39%	upset
1	18	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
1	19	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Fordham University	87%
1	20	Georgetown University	Cornell University	83%
1	21	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	41%	upset
1	22	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	University of Pennsylvania	41%	upset
1	23	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	86%
1	24	Cornell University	Fordham University	97%
1	25	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	U. S. Naval Academy	40%	upset
1	26	Tufts University	Georgetown University	5%	upset
1	27	Fordham University	University of Pennsylvania	9%	upset
1	28	Cornell University	Dartmouth College	55%
2	29	Georgetown University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	96%
2	30	Fordham University	U. S. Naval Academy	10%	upset
2	31	Tufts University	Dartmouth College	23%	upset
2	32	Cornell University	University of Pennsylvania	74%
2	33	Georgetown University	Fordham University	99%
2	34	Dartmouth College	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	78%
2	35	University of Pennsylvania	U. S. Naval Academy	53%
2	36	Cornell University	Tufts University	81%
2	37	Dartmouth College	Fordham University	96%
2	38	Georgetown University	University of Pennsylvania	93%
2	39	Tufts University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	52%
2	40	U. S. Naval Academy	Cornell University	24%	upset
2	41	University of Pennsylvania	Dartmouth College	31%	upset
2	42	Tufts University	Fordham University	87%
2	43	Georgetown University	U. S. Naval Academy	94%
2	44	Cornell University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	80%
2	45	Tufts University	University of Pennsylvania	38%	upset
2	46	Dartmouth College	U. S. Naval Academy	71%
2	47	Fordham University	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	13%	upset
2	48	Cornell University	Georgetown University	17%	upset
2	49	Tufts University	U. S. Naval Academy	41%	upset
2	50	University of Pennsylvania	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	59%
2	51	Georgetown University	Dartmouth College	86%
2	52	Cornell University	Fordham University	97%
2	53	U. S. Naval Academy	Hobart and William Smith Colleges	60%
2	54	Georgetown University	Tufts University	95%
2	55	University of Pennsylvania	Fordham University	91%
2	56	Dartmouth College	Cornell University	46%	upset
3	57	Dartmouth College	Tufts University	77%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Red	Green	Jumbos	Quakers	Herons	Rams	Midshipmen
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	6–1	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dartmouth College Big Green	5–2	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	4–3	W	L	L	✕	W	L	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	1–6	L	L	L	L	✕	L	L	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	4–3	L	L	L	W	W	✕	W	W
Fordham University Rams	1–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	✕	L
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	1–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Hoyas	Red	Green	Jumbos	Quakers	Herons	Rams	Midshipmen
Georgetown University Hoyas	6–1	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cornell University Big Red	5–2	W	✕	L	W	W	W	W	L
Dartmouth College Big Green	4–3	L	W	✕	L	L	W	W	W
Tufts University Jumbos	5–2	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W
University of Pennsylvania Quakers	4–3	L	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W
Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	0–7	L	L	L	L	L	✕	L	L
Fordham University Rams	2–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	2–5	L	W	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Round 3

	Team	Rec.	Green	Jumbos
	Dartmouth College Big Green	1–0	✕	W
	Tufts University Jumbos	0–1	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Herons	3-5-6
2	Midshipmen	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
3	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Jumbos	1-5-6
4	Big Red	1-2-3	def.	Quakers	4-5-6
5	Hoyas	1-2-3	def.	Rams	4-5-6
6	Big Green	1-2-6	def.	Herons	3-4-5
7	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
8	Big Red	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
9	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
10	Hoyas	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
11	Herons	1-3-6	def.	Jumbos	2-4-5
12	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
13	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
14	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
15	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
16	Big Red	1-4-5	def.	Herons	2-3-6
17	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
18	Big Green	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
19	Herons	1-3-5	def.	Rams	2-4-6
20	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Big Red	3-5-6
21	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
22	Herons	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
23	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6 DNF
24	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Rams	3-4-6
25	Herons	1-4-5	def.	Midshipmen	2-3-6
26	Jumbos	1-3-4	def.	Hoyas	2-5-6
27	Rams	1-4-5	def.	Quakers	2-3-6
28	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Big Green	3-5-6
29	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Herons	3-5-6
30	Rams	1-2-6	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-5
31	Jumbos	1-2-6	def.	Big Green	3-4-5
32	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
33	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
34	Big Green	1-2-3	def.	Herons	4-5-6
35	Quakers	1-2-5	def.	Midshipmen	3-4-6
36	Big Red	1-2-5	def.	Jumbos	3-4-6
37	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
38	Hoyas	1-4-5	def.	Quakers	2-3-6
39	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Herons	2-4-6
40	Midshipmen	1-3-5	def.	Big Red	2-4-6
41	Quakers	1-3-6	def.	Big Green	2-4-5
42	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Rams	1-5-6
43	Hoyas	1-2-4	def.	Midshipmen	3-5-6
44	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Herons	2-4-6
45	Jumbos	1-3-5	def.	Quakers	2-4-6
46	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
47	Rams	1-3-6	def.	Herons	2-4-5
48	Big Red	1-3-5	def.	Hoyas	2-4-6
49	Jumbos	2-3-4	def.	Midshipmen	1-5-6
50	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Herons	3-4-5
51	Hoyas	1-2-5	def.	Big Green	3-4-6
52	Big Red	1-2-4	def.	Rams	3-5-6
53	Midshipmen	1-2-4	def.	Herons	3-5-6
54	Hoyas	1-2-6	def.	Jumbos	3-4-5
55	Quakers	1-2-6	def.	Rams	3-4-5
56	Big Green	2-3-4	def.	Big Red	1-5-6
57	Big Green	1-2-4	def.	Jumbos	3-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Georgetown University	Hoyas	Emily Doble '28 Kelly Bates '26 Piper Holthus '25	Morgan Rice '25 Anna Brzezinski '27 Scarlett Harris '28 Lucy Jervis '27
Cornell University	Big Red	Ava Gustafson '28 Bridget Green '25 Gilda Dondona '28	Kate Moran '27 Ava Stevens '28 Sophia Mulvania '26 Hope Campbell '28
Dartmouth College	Big Green	Bella Casaretto '26 Charlotte West '28 Olivia Drulard '27	Faye Benjamin '25 Sophie Menyhart '27 Sudi Zhao '26
Tufts University	Jumbos	Kiana Beachy '28 Maisie Macgillivray '25 Meredith Broadus '25 Sophia Hubbard '28	Annabel De Alessi '25 Eloise Goedkoop '27 Nicole Morikawa '25 Lilly Ladd '26
University of Pennsylvania	Quakers	Adra Ivancich '26 Esme Gonzalez '28 Sofia Segalla '25	Caroline Dannacher '25 Janet Fu '27 Hannah Bast '25
Hobart and William Smith Colleges	Herons	Deana Fedulova '28 Elizabeth Starck '25 Sabrina Starck '28	Maya Mahoney '27 Ella Donaldson '27 Laura Therien '26 Olivia Wilkins '28
Fordham University	Rams	Anna Robertson '28 Lauren Murray '28 Lizzie Cochran '27	Leah Spadaro '25 Alana Shigekane '27 Nora Donahue '28
U. S. Naval Academy	Midshipmen	Ava Farley '26 Eva Blauvelt '25 Kate Zurinskas '27	Maggie Schuler '25 Darby Dryden '27 Sarah Mcnelly '28 Josephine Sherry '27

Conditions — 03/22/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 42% · Pressure 1008.1 hPa

Temperature

57°F

↑ 64°F ↓ 42°F

Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

9.3 kn

avg · max 14.1 kn

Gusts to 32.9 kn

From WSW (249°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover45% Sunshine9.0 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1008.1 hPa

What this breeze does at Georgetown — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Georgetown in this breeze: an underdogs’ day (−0.05)

Underdogs’ conditions: in fleet racing here the fleet bunches up and lower-rated boats beat the seeds more often than usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 4% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Georgetown by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (27 labelled fleet-race days at Georgetown).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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