Lizzie Cochran

Rating History

Team Race Rating

Rating	Rank	vs fleet rating	Record
2.15 (fleet 3.05)	187 of 331	−0.06 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts	as skipper 17–138 (11%)

Season	Regattas	Skipper W–L	Crew W–L
Spring 2026	3	1–25	—
Spring 2025	4	10–55	—
Spring 2024	4	6–58	—

Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 11 graded regattas (155 matches) the record is 17–138 against 23.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.9). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 5 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 16 bits of surprise in all.

Date	Regatta	Role	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2026-04-11	MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship	skipper	2.56	-0.44	0–8	1.9	≤−3.00	3.2	>99%
2026-03-21	Duplin Women's Team Race	skipper	2.62	2.60	1–8	1.0	−0.03	0.0	70%
2026-02-28	ODU Women's Team Race	skipper	2.45	-0.55	0–9	1.2	≤−3.00	1.9	>99%
2025-04-12	MAISA Women's Team Race Championship	skipper	2.46	1.95	3–18	4.4	−0.51	0.5	86%
2025-03-22	Georgetown Women's Team Race	skipper	2.31	3.59	3–11	1.1	+1.28	2.0	8%
2025-03-08	Jen Harris Women's Team Race	skipper	2.21	2.57	2–14	1.5	+0.37	0.1	47%
2025-03-01	ODU Women's Team Race	skipper	2.17	2.76	2–12	1.4	+0.59	0.3	41%
2024-04-13	MAISA Women's Team Race Championships	skipper	1.87	2.47	2–12	1.2	+0.60	0.4	34%
2024-03-23	Seahawk Women's Team Race	skipper	1.71	1.51	2–16	2.4	−0.20	0.1	72%
2024-03-09	The Wood Trophy	skipper	1.51	-1.49	0–17	0.7	≤−3.00	1.1	>99%
2024-03-02	Navy Team Race Invite	skipper	1.77	-0.32	2–13	7.1	−2.09	7.0	>99%

Regatta results

Regatta	Role	Div	Races	Avg	Rating
Fall 2026 Team page Season
Yale Women's Women's	Skipper	A	13	10.8	2.48
Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1A Women's	Skipper	A	6	5.0	4.31
Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Finals Women's	Skipper	A	10	8.8	3.25
Susan Rogers Women's	Skipper	A	1	7.0	—
Stu Nelson @ Connecticut College 2026	Skipper	A	4	8.5	3.04
KP Women's Invite Women's	Skipper	A	9	4.3	2.20
Spring 2026 Team page Season
Women's Eastern National Semis Women's	Skipper	A	10	9.0	3.16
St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's	Skipper	A	14	4.6	3.61
ODU Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	9	0%	—
ODU Women's Fleet Race Women's	Skipper	A	3	10.0	0.49
MAISA Women’s Team Race Championship Women's	Skipper	TR	8	0%	—
MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's	Skipper	A	11	6.9	2.32
Emily Wick Women's	Skipper	A	14	7.1	2.70
Duplin Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	9	11%	—
Admiral's Cup	Skipper	B	8	4.6	3.20
Spring 2025 Team page Season
Women's Eastern National Semi Finals Women's	Skipper	A	9	11.7	2.57
St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's	Skipper	A	12	11.5	2.02
ODU Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	14	14%	—
MAISA Women's Team Race Championship Women's	Skipper	TR	21	14%	—
MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's	Skipper	A	15	6.7	3.12
Jen Harris Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	16	12%	—
Georgetown Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	14	21%	—
Emily Wick Women's	Skipper	A	9	5.7	3.39
Admiral’s Cup	Skipper	B	1	16.0	-0.86
Fall 2024 Team page Season
Women's Regatta at KP Invite Women's	Skipper	A	13	8.2	0.78
Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's	Skipper	A	15	7.1	2.68
Women's ACC's Round 1B Women's	Skipper	A	10	10.1	2.81
Rose Bowl Regatta 2025 - COLLEGE	Skipper	B	2	5.5	3.60
Oyster Bowl	Skipper	A	16	9.8	1.47
MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Women's	Skipper	A	13	7.7	2.63
MAISA Top 9 Women's Women's	Skipper	A	16	9.8	1.75
Jack Boehringer '52 Open Invite	Skipper	C	8	10.5	-0.63
Spring 2024 Team page Season
The Wood Trophy	Skipper	TR	17	0%	—
Wick Trophy Womens event Women's	Skipper	B	11	6.2	2.03
Western Women’s National Semi-finals Women's	Skipper	B	17	11.3	2.48
St. Mary's Women's Inter-Conference Women's	Skipper	B	14	9.3	1.98
Seahawk Women's Team Race Women's	Skipper	TR	18	11%	—
Navy Team Race Invite	Skipper	TR	15	13%	—
MAISA Women's Team Race Championships Women's	Skipper	TR	14	14%	—
MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's	Skipper	B	10	5.2	3.04
Boston Dinghy Club Challenge Cup	Skipper	C	10	12.7	1.57
Fall 2023 Team page Season
Yale Women's Regatta Women's	Skipper	B	12	14.1	1.51
Women's Regatta at KP Invite Women's	Skipper	B	4	9.2	-2.10
Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament Women's	Skipper	B	14	7.3	2.46
Women's ACC Round 1A Women's	Skipper	B	13	10.8	1.94
Susan Rogers Women's Invite Women's	Skipper	A	15	10.5	1.79
Oyster Bowl Women's Women's	Skipper	B	17	9.8	0.17
MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy Championship Women's	Skipper	B	13	6.9	2.14

Linked Profiles

League	Name	School	Year
ISSA	Lizzie Cochran	Tabor Academy	'23

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How do skipper ratings work?A log-strength fitted to every race at once, smoothed week to week.
What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
How does a crew rating work?A crew rating is small and uncertain; a worked example on one roster.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →