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Rose Bowl Regatta 2025 - COLLEGE

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 22 9 31
2 Boston College Boston College Eagles 27 23 50
3 Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 18 35 53
4 U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 37 27 64
5 Fordham University Fordham University Rams 38 29 67
6 Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 26 43 69
7 San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 31 49 80
8 George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries 49 45 94
9 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 46 55 101
10 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 75 48 123
11 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 72 55 127
12 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 66 84 150
13 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 80 74 154
14 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 77 85 162
15 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 88 91 179
16 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 77 103 180
17 Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 94 87 181
18 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 103 84 187
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 1 2 1 3 5 6 18 Diego Escobar '25
Margot Gordon '26
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 5 8 2 4 1 22 Owen Hennessey '25
Brooke Bertrand '26
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 11 7 4 1 1 2 26 Kelly Holthus '27
Taylor Bartell '28
Boston College Boston College Eagles 5 6 3 7 2 4 27 Michael Kirkman '25
Kate Joslin '28
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 4 1 11 4 6 5 31 Noah Nyenhuis '27
Lily Schweber '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 10 3 9 5 3 7 37 Bradley Whiteway '26
Charles Pohl '26
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 6 8 2 12 7 3 38 Lucas Thress '26
Caroline Newton '27
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 7 11 5 6 8 9 46 Nicholas Mueller '27
Gavin Steuerwald '28
George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries 3 9 7 9 13 8 49 Tyler Wood '26 [1-6]
Ella Adelman '26 [1-4]
Nick Lopez '26 [5-6]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 9 16 12 8 11 10 66 Allie Shand '26
Stella Potter '26
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 8 13 6 16 14 15 72 Hudson Mayfield '27 [1-4]
Morgana Manti '26 [5-6]
Rylan Hedges '28 [1-4]
Breeze Pickford '26 [5-6]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 12 4 17 17 12 13 75 Jasper Reid '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Thomas Erisman '26 [3-4]
Kate Gallagher '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Michael Fineman '25 [3-4]
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 14 12 10 14 10 17 77 Sterling Maggard '27
Luke Osborne '28
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 16 10 13 18 9 11 77 Samuel Groom '24
Catalina Brody '28
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 13 15 14 11 15 12 80 Carsten Zieger '28
John Mayfield '28
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 15 17 15 10 17 14 88 Lucien Freemesser '27 [1-6]
Abigail Appleyard '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Kieran Lyons '26 [3-4]
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 17 14 18 13 16 16 94 Grace Bray '27
Millie Rose Taub '26
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 18 18 16 15 18 18 103 Stephanie Seto '27 [1-6]
Julia Oglevie '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Renee Chien '25 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 1 2 2 2 1 9 Charlie Anderson '25
Zoe Hoctor '25
Boston College Boston College Eagles 5 3 5 1 6 3 23 Alex Lech '28
Damien Bocan '27
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears 3 10 1 4 5 4 27 Luke Zylinski '26
Grace Austin '27
Fordham University Fordham University Rams 6 6 4 7 4 2 29 Jacob Zils '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Lizzie Cochran '27 [3-4]
Rebecca Keller '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Georgetown University Georgetown University Hoyas 2 9 7 5 3 9 35 Piper Holthus '25
Anna Brzezinski '27
Tulane University Tulane University Green Wave 10 8 6 6 8 5 43 Oakley Cunningham '27
Elizabeth Struve '28
George Washington University George Washington University Revolutionaries 8 2 8 8 11 8 45 Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26
Caitlyn Schwartz '28
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 7 5 16 13 1 6 48 Henry Boeger '25
Juliet St. Germain '25
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 4 7 10 9 9 10 49 Aston Smith '28
Beverly Schimmel '26
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 9 4 11 10 10 11 55 Owen Cuyler '28
Jeffrey Ring Jr '28
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 17 18 3 3 7 7 55 Ava Bergan '27 [1-2]
Luke Harris '27 [3-6]
Genaro Flores - Machorro '25 [1-2]
Ava Bergan '27 [3-6]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 13 13 9 11 15 13 74 Emerson Marquez '27
Annika Baumgartner '28
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 2 11 12 14 16 14 17 84 Alice Meng '28 [1-6]
Rian Stanton '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Allegra Mcalpin '27 [3-4]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 15 11 15 12 16 15 84 Mitchel Sanford '28
Adem Evecek '25
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 14 15 12 17 13 14 85 Mira Shupe '26
Samantha Katz '28
Northwestern University Northwestern University Wildcats 12 14 13 15 17 16 87 Cole Abbott '26 [1-6]
Chiara Bianchi '27 [1-4]
Jackson Adams '27 [5-6]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 1 16 16 17 18 12 12 91 Enzo Dougherty '27 [1-6]
Jeffrey Kriegh '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Oliver Sommer '27 [3-4]
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 18 17 18 14 18 18 103 Brent Lin '24 [1-6]
Vaughn Russell '28 [1-4]
Benjamin Valenzuela '28 [5-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.150+0.15
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (17 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears323231318181
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles2912912022023838
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers2022023838131131
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs82823737
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins1101108282
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears35356464
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams38381311311515
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Revolutionaries6060110110
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas13113115153636
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats6060110110
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs151536363232
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans373729293535
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks64646060
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave363632323131
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons292935356464
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos31318181291291
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 18181291291202202
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 2828237372929

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears292937378282
Boston CollegeBoston College Eagles1101106060
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers1101106060
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs29129181813131
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins2022022912918181
U. S. Coast Guard AcademyU. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears36361515131131
Fordham UniversityFordham University Rams60606464
George Washington UniversityGeorge Washington University Revolutionaries3838202202291291
Georgetown UniversityGeorgetown University Hoyas64643535
Northwestern UniversityNorthwestern University Wildcats1311313838202202
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs646435352929
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans313132323636
St. Mary's College of MarylandSt. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks15151311313838
Tulane UniversityTulane University Green Wave353529293737
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons323236361515
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos37378282
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 18282110110
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies 2818131313232
School / Team SkipperCrew
Boston College Boston College Michael Kirkman '25 Kate Joslin '28
Eagles Alex Lech '28 Damien Bocan '27
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Samuel Groom '24 Catalina Brody '28
Mustangs Mira Shupe '26 Samantha Katz '28
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Nicholas Mueller '27 Gavin Steuerwald '28
Keelhaulers Owen Cuyler '28 Jeffrey Ring Jr '28
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Sterling Maggard '27 Luke Osborne '28
Dolphins Brent Lin '24 [1-6] Vaughn Russell '28 [1-4]
Benjamin Valenzuela '28 [5-6]
Fordham University Fordham University Lucas Thress '26 Caroline Newton '27
Rams Jacob Zils '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Lizzie Cochran '27 [3-4]		 Rebecca Keller '25 [1-2, 5-6]
George Washington University George Washington University Tyler Wood '26 [1-6] Ella Adelman '26 [1-4]
Nick Lopez '26 [5-6]
Revolutionaries Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia '26 Caitlyn Schwartz '28
Georgetown University Georgetown University Diego Escobar '25 Margot Gordon '26
Hoyas Piper Holthus '25 Anna Brzezinski '27
Northwestern University Northwestern University Grace Bray '27 Millie Rose Taub '26
Wildcats Cole Abbott '26 [1-6] Chiara Bianchi '27 [1-4]
Jackson Adams '27 [5-6]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Noah Nyenhuis '27 Lily Schweber '27
Aztecs Aston Smith '28 Beverly Schimmel '26
St. Mary's College of Maryland St. Mary's College of Maryland Owen Hennessey '25 Brooke Bertrand '26
Seahawks Charlie Anderson '25 Zoe Hoctor '25
Tulane University Tulane University Kelly Holthus '27 Taylor Bartell '28
Green Wave Oakley Cunningham '27 Elizabeth Struve '28
U. S. Coast Guard Academy U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bradley Whiteway '26 Charles Pohl '26
Bears Luke Zylinski '26 Grace Austin '27
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Carsten Zieger '28 John Mayfield '28
Bears Emerson Marquez '27 Annika Baumgartner '28
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Allie Shand '26 Stella Potter '26
Tritons Mitchel Sanford '28 Adem Evecek '25
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Jasper Reid '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Thomas Erisman '26 [3-4]		 Kate Gallagher '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Michael Fineman '25 [3-4]
Gauchos Henry Boeger '25 Juliet St. Germain '25
University of Southern California University of Southern California Hudson Mayfield '27 [1-4]
Morgana Manti '26 [5-6]		 Rylan Hedges '28 [1-4]
Breeze Pickford '26 [5-6]
Trojans Ava Bergan '27 [1-2]
Luke Harris '27 [3-6]		 Genaro Flores - Machorro '25 [1-2]
Ava Bergan '27 [3-6]
University of Washington University of Washington Lucien Freemesser '27 [1-6] Abigail Appleyard '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Kieran Lyons '26 [3-4]
Huskies 1 Enzo Dougherty '27 [1-6] Jeffrey Kriegh '27 [1-2, 5-6]
Oliver Sommer '27 [3-4]
University of Washington University of Washington Stephanie Seto '27 [1-6] Julia Oglevie '26 [1-2, 5-6]
Renee Chien '25 [3-4]
Huskies 2 Alice Meng '28 [1-6] Rian Stanton '28 [1-2, 5-6]
Allegra Mcalpin '27 [3-4]

Conditions — 01/04/2025 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 72%  ·  Pressure 1019.2 hPa

Temperature

57°F
↑ 62°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 55°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.3 kn
avg  ·  max 4.9 kn
Gusts to 12.6 kn
From S (174°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover88% Sunshine8.9 hrs Humidity72% Pressure1019.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 5 kn · S 5 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Southern Cal: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.16)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.10 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.00 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.16 means a rating gap counts about 14% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern Cal by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Southern Cal, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →