San Diego State University '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.25 (fleet 3.06) | 171 of 331 | +0.04 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 37–25 (60%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 21–11 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 16–14 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (62 matches) the record is 37–25 against 33.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.93 | 3.07 | 8–6 | 7.7 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2026-02-21 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.90 | 3.30 | 13–5 | 12.1 | +0.41 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 2025-04-12 | PCCSC Carter Ford Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.98 | 3.52 | 9–10 | 7.2 | +0.54 | 0.7 | 23% |
| 2025-02-08 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.71 | 3.28 | 7–4 | 6.1 | +0.57 | 0.3 | 40% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Noah Nyenhuis |  Point Loma High School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
