PCCSC Carter Ford Open Team Race Championship

HostStanford
Date04/12/2025
TypeConference Championship
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	19–0
2	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	13–6
3	California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	10–9
4	San Diego State University	Aztecs	9–10
5	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	9–10
6	University of Southern California	Trojans	8–11
7	University of California at Berkeley	Bears	2–7
8	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	2–7
9	University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs	2–7
10	University of Washington	Huskies	1–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 27,404 team race matches sailed before 2025-04-12, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 57 of 75 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.460 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.00 ± 0.24: a typical event, more orderly than 41% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	11.19 school +0.33, home +0.37	Dylan Sih / Shay Wood 3.50 Sophie Fisher / Alexandra Jones 3.47 11–0 Lucas Woodworth / Abby Baird 3.63 11–0 Sophie Fisher / Ava Cornell 3.61 8–0 Thomas Whidden / Abby Baird 3.19 8–0	98%	19–0 (100%)	+0.4
2	University of Hawaii Rainbows	3	7.75 school −0.25	Erik Anderson / Amanda Turner 3.16 10–6 Vivian Bonsager / Kees Horn 2.64 10–3 Everett Mcavoy / Sophia Shaeffer 2.48 10–2 Martha Schuessler / Arden Rathkopf 2.13 7–3 Martha Schuessler / Sophia Shaeffer 2.33 2–1 Everett Mcavoy / Kees Horn 2.46 0–3	56%	13–6 (68%)	+2.4
3	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	4	7.51 school +0.18	Nicholas Mueller / Oscar Perry 2.73 Clay Myers / Owen Cuyler 2.48 Ryan Downey / Nicolai Perez 2.03	49%	10–9 (53%)	+0.8
4	San Diego State University Aztecs	6	7.04	Noah Nyenhuis / Sadie Marinerstein 2.98 Aston Smith / Macaela Wilton 2.48 Christopher Hopkins / Beverly Schimmel 1.41	38%	9–10 (47%)	+1.8
5	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	2	8.45 school −0.14	Henry Boeger / Juliet St. Germain 2.98 Jasper Reid / Kate Gallagher 2.40 Jonathan Seawards / Avalon Everett 3.15	67%	9–10 (47%)	−3.7
6	University of Southern California Trojans	7	6.75 school −0.18	Luke Harris / Ava Bergan 2.79 Cameron Berry / Morgana Manti 1.49 Hudson Mayfield / Lara Granucci 2.52 7–8 Hudson Mayfield / Nicole Drake 2.52 1–3	33%	8–11 (42%)	+1.8
7	University of California at Berkeley Bears	10	5.46 school +0.19	Nate Ingebritson / Annika Baumgartner 1.83 Carsten Zieger / Aliyah Al-Khafaji 1.76 Wilton Lawton / John Mayfield 1.57 1–4 Wilton Lawton / Ethan Lisle 1.74 1–3	20%	2–7 (22%)	+0.2
8	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	8	5.92 school −0.14	Robert Bloomfield / Mira Shupe 1.38 Garrett Henderson / Samuel Groom 2.15 Morgan Headington / Parker Ziegler 2.49	28%	2–7 (22%)	−0.5
9	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	9	5.80 school −0.22	Brian Fitzsimmons / Chas Mitchell 2.23 George Soliman / Conor Kim 1.87 Colin Olson / Devon Baker-Berry 1.87	26%	2–7 (22%)	−0.3
10	University of Washington Huskies	5	6.72 school +0.11	Benjamin Stone / Jeffrey Kriegh 2.48 Maxwell Miller / Kirin Dhaka 2.07 Lucien Freemesser / Oliver Nairn 2.01	43%	1–8 (11%)	−2.9

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	11.19	14.19	19–0	18.6	≥+3.00	0.6	64%
2	University of Hawaii	7.75	8.54	13–6	10.6	+0.79	1.3	15%
4	San Diego State University	7.04	7.58	9–10	7.2	+0.54	0.7	23%
6	University of Southern California	6.75	7.26	8–11	6.3	+0.51	0.7	24%
3	California Maritime Academy	7.51	7.75	10–9	9.2	+0.23	0.1	44%
7	University of California at Berkeley	5.46	5.64	2–7	1.8	+0.18	0.0	57%
9	University of California at Santa Cruz	5.80	5.56	2–7	2.3	−0.24	0.1	75%
8	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	5.92	5.56	2–7	2.5	−0.36	0.1	79%
5	University of California at Santa Barbara	8.45	7.30	9–10	12.7	−1.16	3.2	99%
10	University of Washington	6.72	4.52	1–8	3.9	−2.20	4.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Lucien Freemesser	University of Washington	2.01	5.01	11–0	10.7	≥+3.00	0.4	76%
Aston Smith	San Diego State University	2.48	3.02	9–10	7.2	+0.54	0.7	23%
Luke Harris	University of Southern California	2.79	3.31	8–11	6.3	+0.51	0.7	24%
Cameron Berry	University of Southern California	1.49	2.00	8–11	6.3	+0.51	0.7	24%
Ryan Downey	California Maritime Academy	2.03	2.26	10–9	9.2	+0.23	0.1	44%
Brian Fitzsimmons	University of California at Santa Cruz	2.23	1.99	2–7	2.3	−0.24	0.1	75%
Jonathan Seawards	University of California at Santa Barbara	3.15	1.99	9–10	12.7	−1.16	3.2	99%
Benjamin Stone	University of Washington	2.48	0.28	1–8	3.9	−2.20	4.1	>99%
Maxwell Miller	University of Washington	2.07	-0.13	1–8	3.9	−2.20	4.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	95%
1	2	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Santa Cruz	53%
1	3	San Diego State University	University of Hawaii	23%	upset
1	4	University of Southern California	California Maritime Academy	31%	upset
1	5	University of California at Berkeley	University of Washington	21%	upset
1	6	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	100%
1	7	San Diego State University	University of California at Santa Barbara	18%	upset
1	8	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Santa Cruz	84%
1	9	University of Hawaii	University of Washington	73%
1	10	University of Southern California	University of California at Berkeley	78%
1	11	San Diego State University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	73%
1	12	Stanford University	California Maritime Academy	98%
1	13	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Washington	85%
1	14	University of California at Santa Cruz	University of Southern California	29%	upset
1	15	University of Hawaii	University of California at Berkeley	84%
1	16	California Maritime Academy	San Diego State University	63%
1	17	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of Washington	31%	upset
1	18	Stanford University	University of Southern California	99%
1	19	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	59%
1	20	University of California at Santa Cruz	University of California at Berkeley	60%
1	21	California Maritime Academy	University of Washington	68%
1	22	San Diego State University	University of Southern California	57%
1	23	University of Hawaii	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	76%
1	24	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Cruz	100%
1	25	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	95%
1	26	University of Southern California	University of Washington	49%	upset
1	27	University of Hawaii	California Maritime Academy	61%
1	28	San Diego State University	University of California at Santa Cruz	76%
1	29	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	92%
1	30	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	100%
1	31	University of Hawaii	University of Southern California	71%
1	32	University of Washington	University of California at Santa Cruz	72%
1	33	University of California at Santa Barbara	California Maritime Academy	72%
1	34	Stanford University	San Diego State University	98%
1	35	University of California at Berkeley	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	41%	upset
1	36	University of Hawaii	University of California at Santa Cruz	78%
1	37	University of Southern California	University of California at Santa Barbara	15%	upset
1	38	Stanford University	University of Washington	99%
1	39	California Maritime Academy	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	83%
1	40	San Diego State University	University of California at Berkeley	81%
1	41	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Santa Cruz	93%
1	42	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	97%
1	43	University of Southern California	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	69%
1	44	San Diego State University	University of Washington	57%
1	45	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Berkeley	87%
6	46	University of Hawaii	University of California at Santa Barbara	41%	upset
6	47	California Maritime Academy	San Diego State University	61%
6	48	Stanford University	University of Southern California	99%
6	49	University of California at Santa Barbara	San Diego State University	80%
6	50	University of Hawaii	University of Southern California	71%
6	51	Stanford University	California Maritime Academy	98%
6	52	University of Southern California	San Diego State University	42%	upset
6	53	University of California at Santa Barbara	California Maritime Academy	72%
6	54	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	97%
6	55	California Maritime Academy	University of Southern California	68%
6	56	University of Hawaii	San Diego State University	73%
6	57	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	95%
6	58	University of Hawaii	California Maritime Academy	60%
6	59	University of Southern California	University of California at Santa Barbara	16%	upset
6	60	Stanford University	San Diego State University	98%
6	61	University of Hawaii	University of California at Santa Barbara	41%	upset
6	62	Stanford University	San Diego State University	98%
6	63	California Maritime Academy	University of Southern California	68%
6	64	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	95%
6	65	University of Hawaii	University of Southern California	71%
6	66	San Diego State University	California Maritime Academy	39%	upset
6	67	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Southern California	84%
6	68	Stanford University	California Maritime Academy	98%
6	69	University of Hawaii	San Diego State University	73%
6	70	Stanford University	University of Southern California	99%
6	71	California Maritime Academy	University of Hawaii	40%	upset
6	72	San Diego State University	University of California at Santa Barbara	21%	upset
6	73	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	97%
6	74	University of Southern California	San Diego State University	42%	upset
6	75	California Maritime Academy	University of California at Santa Barbara	29%	upset

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Rainbows	Keelhaulers	Aztecs	Gauchos	Trojans	Bears	Mustangs	Slugs	Huskies
Stanford University Cardinal	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	6–3	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	5–4	L	L	✕	W	L	L	W	W	W	W
San Diego State University Aztecs	7–2	L	W	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	6–3	L	W	W	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W
University of Southern California Trojans	5–4	L	L	W	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	L	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	W	W	L	✕	L
University of Washington Huskies	1–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕

Round 6

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Rainbows	Keelhaulers	Aztecs	Gauchos	Trojans
Stanford University Cardinal	10–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	7–3	L	✕	L	W	W	W
California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	5–5	L	W	✕	L	W	W
San Diego State University Aztecs	2–8	L	L	W	✕	W	L
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	3–7	L	L	L	L	✕	W
University of Southern California Trojans	3–7	L	L	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
2	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
3	Aztecs	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
4	Trojans	1-3-4	def.	Keelhaulers	2-5-6
5	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Huskies	2-5-6
6	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
7	Aztecs	1-3-4	def.	Gauchos	2-5-6
8	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Banana Slugs	1-5-6
9	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
10	Trojans	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
11	Aztecs	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
12	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Keelhaulers	4-5-6
13	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Huskies	3-5-6
14	Banana Slugs	1-2-4	def.	Trojans	3-5-6
15	Rainbows	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
16	Keelhaulers	1-2-6	def.	Aztecs	3-4-5
17	Mustangs	1-4-5	def.	Huskies	2-3-6
18	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Trojans	3-5-6
19	Gauchos	2-3-5	def.	Rainbows	1-4-6
20	Banana Slugs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
21	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Huskies	1-5-6
22	Aztecs	1-3-5	def.	Trojans	2-4-6
23	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
24	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
25	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
26	Trojans	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
27	Rainbows	1-3-6	def.	Keelhaulers	2-4-5
28	Aztecs	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
29	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
30	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
31	Rainbows	1-2-5	def.	Trojans	3-4-6
32	Huskies	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
33	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
34	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Aztecs	3-5-6
35	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Mustangs	2-5-6
36	Rainbows	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
37	Trojans	1-3-5	def.	Gauchos	2-4-6
38	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Huskies	4-5-6
39	Keelhaulers	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
40	Aztecs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
41	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
42	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Rainbows	2-5-6
43	Trojans	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
44	Aztecs	1-2-6	def.	Huskies	3-4-5
45	Keelhaulers	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
46	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
47	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Aztecs	1-5-6
48	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Trojans	2-5-6
49	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Aztecs	4-5-6
50	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Trojans	3-5-6
51	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Keelhaulers	3-5-6
52	Trojans	2-3-5	def.	Aztecs	1-4-6
53	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
54	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Rainbows	3-4-6
55	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Trojans	1-5-6
56	Rainbows	1-2-5	def.	Aztecs	3-4-6
57	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
58	Rainbows	1-2-6	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-5
59	Trojans	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
60	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Aztecs	1-5-6
61	Rainbows	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
62	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Aztecs	1-5-6
63	Keelhaulers	1-2-3	def.	Trojans	4-5-6
64	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Gauchos	3-5-6
65	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Trojans	3-5-6
66	Aztecs	1-4-5	def.	Keelhaulers	2-3-6
67	Gauchos	1-3-5	def.	Trojans	2-4-6
68	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-5
69	Rainbows	2-3-5	def.	Aztecs	1-4-6
70	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Trojans	4-5-6
71	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Rainbows	1-5-6
72	Aztecs	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
73	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Rainbows	3-4-5
74	Trojans	1-2-6	def.	Aztecs	3-4-5
75	Keelhaulers	1-4-5	def.	Gauchos	2-3-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Dylan Sih '28 Lucas Woodworth '27 Sophie Fisher '26 Thomas Whidden '28	Shay Wood '27 Abby Baird '28 Alexandra Jones '28 Ava Cornell '28
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	Erik Anderson '26 Everett Mcavoy '26 Martha Schuessler '27 Vivian Bonsager '25	Amanda Turner '27 Kees Horn '25 Sophia Shaeffer '25 Arden Rathkopf '27
California Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	Clay Myers '25 Nicholas Mueller '27 Ryan Downey '25	Owen Cuyler '28 Oscar Perry '28 Nicolai Perez '28
San Diego State University	Aztecs	Aston Smith '28 Christopher Hopkins '25 Noah Nyenhuis '27	Macaela Wilton '27 Beverly Schimmel '26 Sadie Marinerstein '28
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Henry Boeger '25 Jasper Reid '25 Jonathan Seawards '26	Juliet St. Germain '25 Kate Gallagher '25 Avalon Everett '27
University of Southern California	Trojans	Cameron Berry '25 Hudson Mayfield '27 Luke Harris '27	Morgana Manti '26 Lara Granucci '28 Nicole Drake '28 Ava Bergan '27
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	Carsten Zieger '28 Nate Ingebritson '25 Wilton Lawton '26	Aliyah Al-Khafaji '27 Annika Baumgartner '28 Ethan Lisle '25 John Mayfield '28
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	Garrett Henderson '27 Morgan Headington '28 Robert Bloomfield '26	Samuel Groom '24 Parker Ziegler '28 Mira Shupe '26
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs	Brian Fitzsimmons '26 Colin Olson '26 George Soliman '24	Chas Mitchell '26 Devon Baker-Berry '26 Conor Kim '27
University of Washington	Huskies	Benjamin Stone '27 Lucien Freemesser '27 Maxwell Miller '25	Jeffrey Kriegh '27 Oliver Nairn '27 Kirin Dhaka '27

Conditions — 04/12/2025 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 56% · Pressure 1017.3 hPa

Temperature

61°F

↑ 66°F ↓ 51°F

Feels like 59°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

5.7 kn

avg · max 6.7 kn

Gusts to 18.9 kn

From W (276°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover8% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity56% Pressure1017.3 hPa

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a favourites’ day (+0.03)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 3% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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