Cal Poly University S.L.O. '28
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.22 (fleet 3.03) | 175 of 331 | +0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–27 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 19–19 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 2 | 8–8 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (54 matches) the record is 27–27 against 23.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.8). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 7 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.64 | 4.73 | 8–6 | 3.5 | +2.09 | 6.9 | <1% |
| 2026-03-07 | Mustang Team Race | skipper | 2.67 | 2.50 | 5–1 | 5.1 | −0.18 | 0.0 | 79% |
| 2026-02-21 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.50 | 2.36 | 6–12 | 6.3 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 70% |
| 2025-04-12 | PCCSC Carter Ford Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.49 | 2.13 | 2–7 | 2.5 | −0.36 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2025-02-01 | Mustang Team Race | skipper | 2.25 | 2.59 | 6–1 | 5.7 | +0.33 | 0.1 | 62% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 4.3 | 3.67 |
| David Lee Arnoff | Skipper | A | 14 | 8.1 | 0.80 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Mustang Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 90% | — |
| Mustang Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 3.2 | 3.54 |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 33% | — |
| Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.4 | 3.48 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| West Coast Championships | Skipper | A | 9 | 8.2 | 2.81 |
| UCSD Frosh/Soph | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.3 | 3.53 |
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.4 | 2.41 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Port of Los Angeles Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 5.6 | — |
| PCCSC Carter Ford Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Mustang Team Race | Skipper | TR | 7 | 86% | — |
| Mustang Open Varsity | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.0 | 2.82 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.2 | 2.62 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | B | 7 | 1.7 | 3.52 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 8 | 3.6 | 3.51 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Morgan Headington |  Redwood |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
