McIntyre Team Race

HostStanford
Date02/21/2026
TypeCross Regional
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	18–0
2	San Diego State University	Aztecs	13–5
3	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	13–5
4	University of Southern California	Trojans	12–6
5	California Poly Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	11–7
6	Northwestern University	Wildcats	8–10
7	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	6–12
8	University of California at Berkeley	Bears	5–13
9	University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs	4–14
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	0–18

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 28,152 team race matches sailed before 2026-02-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 80 of 90 matches (89%) with a log-loss of 0.278 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.27 ± 0.22: an orderly event, more orderly than 73% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	12.04 school +0.25, home +0.36	Ellie Harned / Kit Harned 3.50 Sophie Fisher / Piper Blackband 3.78 16–0 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Alice Schmid 4.39 10–0 Samara Walshe / Alice Schmid 8–0 Vanessa Lahrkamp / Piper Blackband 4.24 2–0	99%	18–0 (100%)	+0.2
2	San Diego State University Aztecs	3	8.16 school +0.09	Owen Gormely / Macaela Wilton 1.33 Noah Nyenhuis / Lily Schweber 2.92 Ian Nyenhuis / Sadie Marinerstein	67%	13–5 (72%)	+1.0
3	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	2	8.30 school −0.25	Ted Mcdonough / Renee Lehto 2.51 Jonathan Seawards / Avalon Everett 2.97 11–3 Henry Boeger / Kayla Spalding 8–2 Henry Boeger / Samuel Long 5–3 Jonathan Seawards / Will Hartley 2.80 2–2	69%	13–5 (72%)	+0.5
4	University of Southern California Trojans	5	7.80	Hudson Mayfield / Morgana Manti 2.75 11–5 Luke Harris / Ava Bergan 3.00 11–5 Cameron Law / Julia Szymanski 5–5 Maximilian Conze / Julia Szymanski 5–1 Cameron Law / Ava Bergan 1–1 Luke Harris / Sylvia Rosenfeld 2.81 1–1 Cameron Law / Sylvia Rosenfeld 2–0	62%	12–6 (67%)	+0.9
5	California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	4	8.08 school +0.21	Nicholas Mueller / Nicolai Perez 2.96 Kaden Miller / Indigo Craig Tate Oyler / Oscar Perry	65%	11–7 (61%)	−0.7
6	Northwestern University Wildcats	6	7.19 school +0.09	Jake Weinstein / Cora Star 2.63 Nicholas Chesemore / Samantha Forgosh 2.38 Gavin Eskilson / Miranda Beitel	51%	8–10 (44%)	−1.2
7	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	7	6.07 school −0.15	Morgan Headington / Mila Kane 2.45 Noah Shefer / Andrew Dolle Robert Bloomfield / Brynn Jolly 0.86 3–7 Marina Priskich / Lola Audan 3–5	34%	6–12 (33%)	−0.1
8	University of California at Berkeley Bears	9	5.42 school +0.18	Wilton Lawton / Aliyah Al-Khafaji 1.95 Carsten Zieger / Annika Baumgartner 2.06 Nathaniel Grinkrug / Gabriel Rousseau	24%	5–13 (28%)	+0.6
9	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	8	5.68 school −0.16	Colin Olson / Devon Baker-Berry 1.94 Isaac Sharp / Asha Myers 1.99 Joaquin Desrochers / Emilia Mcnabb	28%	4–14 (22%)	−1.0
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	10	2.36 school −0.31	Kevin Ryan / Ava Candage Benjamin Mohrman / Peter Mascilli 0–14 Alden Hughes / Dylan Weitzell 0–12 Alden Hughes / Haylie Dawson 0–6 Maximilian Conze / Haylie Dawson 0–4	2%	0–18 (0%)	−0.3

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	12.04	15.04	18–0	17.8	≥+3.00	0.3	83%
2	San Diego State University	8.16	8.62	13–5	12.0	+0.45	0.3	38%
4	University of Southern California	7.80	8.13	12–6	11.1	+0.33	0.2	41%
8	University of California at Berkeley	5.42	5.74	5–13	4.4	+0.32	0.1	45%
3	University of California at Santa Barbara	8.30	8.53	13–5	12.5	+0.23	0.1	51%
7	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	6.07	6.02	6–12	6.1	−0.05	0.0	65%
5	California Poly Maritime Academy	8.08	7.82	11–7	11.7	−0.26	0.1	77%
6	Northwestern University	7.19	6.76	8–10	9.2	−0.43	0.4	85%
9	University of California at Santa Cruz	5.68	5.15	4–14	5.0	−0.52	0.4	85%
10	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	2.36	-0.64	0–18	0.3	≤−3.00	0.4	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Samara Walshe	Stanford University	3.71	6.71	8–0	7.9	≥+3.00	0.1	91%
Sophie Fisher	Stanford University	3.78	6.78	16–0	15.8	≥+3.00	0.3	83%
Ellie Harned	Stanford University	3.50	6.50	18–0	17.8	≥+3.00	0.3	83%
Vanessa Lahrkamp	Stanford University	4.39	7.39	12–0	11.9	≥+3.00	0.1	90%
Maximilian Conze	University of Southern California	1.50	2.20	5–1	4.3	+0.70	0.3	46%
Hudson Mayfield	University of Southern California	2.75	3.38	11–5	9.6	+0.63	0.6	28%
Marina Priskich	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	1.58	2.08	3–5	2.4	+0.50	0.2	45%
Owen Gormely	San Diego State University	1.33	1.79	13–5	12.0	+0.45	0.3	38%
Noah Nyenhuis	San Diego State University	2.92	3.37	13–5	12.0	+0.45	0.3	38%
Ian Nyenhuis	San Diego State University	3.72	4.17	13–5	12.0	+0.45	0.3	38%
Luke Harris	University of Southern California	3.00	3.34	12–6	11.1	+0.33	0.2	41%
Wilton Lawton	University of California at Berkeley	1.95	2.27	5–13	4.4	+0.32	0.1	45%
Carsten Zieger	University of California at Berkeley	2.06	2.38	5–13	4.4	+0.32	0.1	45%
Nathaniel Grinkrug	University of California at Berkeley	0.99	1.31	5–13	4.4	+0.32	0.1	45%
Henry Boeger	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.77	3.00	13–5	12.5	+0.23	0.1	51%
Jonathan Seawards	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.97	3.20	13–5	12.5	+0.23	0.1	51%
Ted Mcdonough	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.51	2.74	13–5	12.5	+0.23	0.1	51%
Morgan Headington	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	2.45	2.40	6–12	6.1	−0.05	0.0	65%
Noah Shefer	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	2.18	2.13	6–12	6.1	−0.05	0.0	65%
Cameron Law	University of Southern California	2.09	1.94	8–6	8.3	−0.16	0.0	72%
Nicholas Mueller	California Poly Maritime Academy	2.96	2.70	11–7	11.7	−0.26	0.1	77%
Kaden Miller	California Poly Maritime Academy	2.12	1.86	11–7	11.7	−0.26	0.1	77%
Tate Oyler	California Poly Maritime Academy	2.53	2.27	11–7	11.7	−0.26	0.1	77%
Jake Weinstein	Northwestern University	2.63	2.20	8–10	9.2	−0.43	0.4	85%
Nicholas Chesemore	Northwestern University	2.38	1.94	8–10	9.2	−0.43	0.4	85%
Gavin Eskilson	Northwestern University	2.06	1.63	8–10	9.2	−0.43	0.4	85%
Colin Olson	University of California at Santa Cruz	1.94	1.42	4–14	5.0	−0.52	0.4	85%
Isaac Sharp	University of California at Santa Cruz	1.99	1.46	4–14	5.0	−0.52	0.4	85%
Joaquin Desrochers	University of California at Santa Cruz	1.67	1.15	4–14	5.0	−0.52	0.4	85%
Robert Bloomfield	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	0.86	0.14	3–7	3.7	−0.72	0.4	89%
Alden Hughes	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	-0.10	-3.10	0–18	0.3	≤−3.00	0.4	>99%
Benjamin Mohrman	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	1.18	-1.82	0–14	0.2	≤−3.00	0.2	>99%
Kevin Ryan	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	1.05	-1.95	0–18	0.3	≤−3.00	0.4	>99%
Maximilian Conze	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	1.39	-1.61	0–4	0.1	≤−3.00	0.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	San Diego State University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	94%
1	2	Stanford University	Northwestern University	99%
1	3	University of California at Santa Barbara	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	4	California Poly Maritime Academy	University of California at Santa Cruz	91%
1	5	University of Southern California	University of California at Berkeley	94%
1	6	San Diego State University	Northwestern University	71%
1	7	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	97%
1	8	Stanford University	California Poly Maritime Academy	98%
1	9	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Southern California	54%
1	10	University of California at Santa Cruz	University of California at Berkeley	56%
1	11	Northwestern University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
1	12	San Diego State University	California Poly Maritime Academy	54%
1	13	University of Southern California	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	85%
1	14	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Cruz	100%
1	15	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	95%
1	16	California Poly Maritime Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	17	University of Southern California	Northwestern University	54%
1	18	San Diego State University	University of California at Santa Cruz	93%
1	19	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	93%
1	20	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	100%
1	21	California Poly Maritime Academy	University of Southern California	50%	upset
1	22	University of California at Santa Cruz	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	97%
1	23	Northwestern University	University of California at Santa Barbara	25%	upset
1	24	Stanford University	San Diego State University	98%
1	25	University of California at Berkeley	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	42%	upset
1	26	University of Southern California	University of California at Santa Cruz	76%
1	27	University of California at Santa Barbara	California Poly Maritime Academy	56%
1	28	Stanford University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	29	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Northwestern University	30%	upset
1	30	San Diego State University	University of California at Berkeley	94%
1	31	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Santa Cruz	92%
1	32	Stanford University	University of Southern California	99%
1	33	California Poly Maritime Academy	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	84%
1	34	San Diego State University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	35	Northwestern University	University of California at Berkeley	86%
1	36	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	98%
1	37	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Santa Cruz	69%
1	38	San Diego State University	University of Southern California	51%
1	39	California Poly Maritime Academy	Northwestern University	71%
1	40	University of California at Berkeley	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	96%
1	41	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	100%
1	42	University of California at Santa Barbara	San Diego State University	55%
1	43	Northwestern University	University of California at Santa Cruz	82%
1	44	University of Southern California	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
1	45	California Poly Maritime Academy	University of California at Berkeley	93%
2	46	San Diego State University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	92%
2	47	Stanford University	Northwestern University	99%
2	48	University of California at Santa Barbara	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
2	49	California Poly Maritime Academy	University of California at Santa Cruz	92%
2	50	University of Southern California	University of California at Berkeley	94%
2	51	San Diego State University	Northwestern University	73%
2	52	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	97%
2	53	Stanford University	California Poly Maritime Academy	97%
2	54	University of Southern California	University of California at Santa Barbara	44%	upset
2	55	University of California at Berkeley	University of California at Santa Cruz	44%	upset
2	56	Northwestern University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	99%
2	57	San Diego State University	California Poly Maritime Academy	51%
2	58	University of Southern California	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	83%
2	59	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Cruz	100%
2	60	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	95%
2	61	California Poly Maritime Academy	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
2	62	University of Southern California	Northwestern University	57%
2	63	San Diego State University	University of California at Santa Cruz	92%
2	64	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	93%
2	65	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	100%
2	66	University of Southern California	California Poly Maritime Academy	50%
2	67	University of California at Santa Cruz	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	96%
2	68	University of California at Santa Barbara	Northwestern University	77%
2	69	Stanford University	San Diego State University	98%
2	70	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Berkeley	59%
2	71	University of California at Santa Cruz	University of Southern California	23%	upset
2	72	University of California at Santa Barbara	California Poly Maritime Academy	56%
2	73	Stanford University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
2	74	Northwestern University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	64%
2	75	University of California at Berkeley	San Diego State University	6%	upset
2	76	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Santa Cruz	93%
2	77	Stanford University	University of Southern California	98%
2	78	California Poly Maritime Academy	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	82%
2	79	San Diego State University	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
2	80	Northwestern University	University of California at Berkeley	84%
2	81	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	98%
2	82	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Santa Cruz	71%
2	83	University of Southern California	San Diego State University	49%	upset
2	84	California Poly Maritime Academy	Northwestern University	73%
2	85	University of California at Berkeley	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	95%
2	86	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	100%
2	87	San Diego State University	University of California at Santa Barbara	44%	upset
2	88	Northwestern University	University of California at Santa Cruz	80%
2	89	University of Southern California	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	100%
2	90	California Poly Maritime Academy	University of California at Berkeley	94%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Aztecs	Gauchos	Trojans	Keelhaulers	Wildcats	Mustangs	Bears	Slugs	Mariners
Stanford University Cardinal	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
San Diego State University Aztecs	7–2	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	7–2	L	W	✕	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
University of Southern California Trojans	5–4	L	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W
California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	6–3	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Northwestern University Wildcats	4–5	L	L	W	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	2–7	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Aztecs	Gauchos	Trojans	Keelhaulers	Wildcats	Mustangs	Bears	Slugs	Mariners
Stanford University Cardinal	9–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
San Diego State University Aztecs	6–3	L	✕	W	L	W	W	W	L	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	6–3	L	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
University of Southern California Trojans	7–2	L	W	W	✕	W	W	W	W	L	W
California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	5–4	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
Northwestern University Wildcats	4–5	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	3–6	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	3–6	L	W	L	L	L	L	L	✕	W	W
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	2–7	L	L	L	W	L	L	L	L	✕	W
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	0–9	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Aztecs	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
2	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
3	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
4	Keelhaulers	1-2-4	def.	Banana Slugs	3-5-6
5	Trojans	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
6	Aztecs	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
7	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
8	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Keelhaulers	2-5-6
9	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Trojans	3-5-6
10	Banana Slugs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
11	Wildcats	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
12	Aztecs	1-2-5	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-6
13	Trojans	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
15	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
16	Keelhaulers	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
17	Trojans	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
18	Aztecs	1-4-5	def.	Banana Slugs	2-3-6
19	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Mustangs	1-5-6
20	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
21	Keelhaulers	1-2-4	def.	Trojans	3-5-6
22	Banana Slugs	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
23	Wildcats	1-3-4	def.	Gauchos	2-5-6
24	Cardinal	1-3-4	def.	Aztecs	2-5-6
25	Bears	1-4-5	def.	Mustangs	2-3-6
26	Trojans	1-2-6	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-5
27	Gauchos	1-3-4	def.	Keelhaulers	2-5-6
28	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
29	Mustangs	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
30	Aztecs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
31	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-5
32	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Trojans	4-5-6
33	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Mustangs	1-5-6
34	Aztecs	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
35	Wildcats	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6
36	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
37	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
38	Aztecs	1-2-6	def.	Trojans	3-4-5
39	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Wildcats	1-5-6
40	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Mariners	2-5-6
41	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
42	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Aztecs	1-5-6
43	Wildcats	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
44	Trojans	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
45	Keelhaulers	1-3-4	def.	Bears	2-5-6
46	Aztecs	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
47	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Wildcats	4-5-6
48	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
49	Keelhaulers	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
50	Trojans	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
51	Aztecs	1-2-5	def.	Wildcats	3-4-6
52	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Mariners	3-4-6
53	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Keelhaulers	3-5-6
54	Trojans	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
55	Bears	1-3-5	def.	Banana Slugs	2-4-6
56	Wildcats	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
57	Aztecs	2-3-4	def.	Keelhaulers	1-5-6
58	Trojans	1-4-5	def.	Mustangs	2-3-6
59	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
60	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
61	Keelhaulers	1-2-6	def.	Mariners	3-4-5
62	Trojans	1-2-6	def.	Wildcats	3-4-5
63	Aztecs	1-2-4	def.	Banana Slugs	3-5-6
64	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
65	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Bears	4-5-6
66	Trojans	1-2-6	def.	Keelhaulers	3-4-5
67	Banana Slugs	1-3-4	def.	Mariners	2-5-6
68	Gauchos	1-2-4	def.	Wildcats	3-5-6
69	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Aztecs	3-4-6
70	Mustangs	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
71	Banana Slugs	1-2-4	def.	Trojans	3-5-6
72	Gauchos	1-2-3	def.	Keelhaulers	4-5-6
73	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
74	Wildcats	2-3-4	def.	Mustangs	1-5-6
75	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Aztecs	3-5-6
76	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
77	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Trojans	4-5-6
78	Keelhaulers	1-2-6	def.	Mustangs	3-4-5
79	Aztecs	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
80	Wildcats	1-4-5	def.	Bears	2-3-6
81	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6
82	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
83	Trojans	1-2-4	def.	Aztecs	3-5-6
84	Keelhaulers	1-4-5	def.	Wildcats	2-3-6
85	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Mariners	3-5-6
86	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
87	Aztecs	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
88	Wildcats	1-2-6	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-5
89	Trojans	1-2-3	def.	Mariners	4-5-6
90	Keelhaulers	2-3-4	def.	Bears	1-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Ellie Harned '26 Samara Walshe '29 Sophie Fisher '26 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26	Kit Harned '27 Alice Schmid '27 Piper Blackband '28
San Diego State University	Aztecs	Ian Nyenhuis '29 Noah Nyenhuis '27 Owen Gormely '27	Sadie Marinerstein '28 Lily Schweber '27 Macaela Wilton '27
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Henry Boeger '26 Jonathan Seawards '26 Ted Mcdonough '26	Samuel Long '27 Kayla Spalding '28 Avalon Everett '27 Will Hartley '27 Renee Lehto '29
University of Southern California	Trojans	Cameron Law '29 Hudson Mayfield '27 Luke Harris '27 Maximilian Conze '28	Julia Szymanski '28 Sylvia Rosenfeld '28 Ava Bergan '27 Morgana Manti '26
California Poly Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	Kaden Miller '29 Nicholas Mueller '27 Tate Oyler '29	Indigo Craig '29 Nicolai Perez '28 Oscar Perry '28
Northwestern University	Wildcats	Gavin Eskilson '29 Jake Weinstein '27 Nicholas Chesemore '27	Miranda Beitel '29 Cora Star '26 Samantha Forgosh '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	Marina Priskich '29 Morgan Headington '28 Noah Shefer '29 Robert Bloomfield '26	Lola Audan '29 Mila Kane '29 Andrew Dolle '29 Brynn Jolly '29
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	Carsten Zieger '28 Nathaniel Grinkrug '27 Wilton Lawton '26	Annika Baumgartner '28 Gabriel Rousseau '27 Aliyah Al-Khafaji '27
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs	Colin Olson '26 Isaac Sharp '26 Joaquin Desrochers '29	Devon Baker-Berry '26 Asha Myers '26 Emilia Mcnabb '28
U. S. Merchant Marine Academy	Mariners	Alden Hughes '29 Benjamin Mohrman '29 Kevin Ryan '29 Maximilian Conze '28	Haylie Dawson '29 Dylan Weitzell '29 Peter Mascilli '29 Ava Candage '29

Conditions — 02/21/2026 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 59% · Pressure 1019.6 hPa

Temperature

55°F

↑ 60°F ↓ 43°F

Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

6.1 kn

avg · max 9.5 kn

Gusts to 21.8 kn

From SSE (160°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover33% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity59% Pressure1019.6 hPa

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: S about 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.12)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 10% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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