San Diego State University '27
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.13 (fleet 1.53) | 303 of 328 | +0.03 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 24–13 (65%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 21–11 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 3–2 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (37 matches) the record is 24–13 against 21.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.54 | 1.68 | 8–6 | 7.7 | +0.14 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2026-02-21 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.39 | 1.79 | 13–5 | 12.1 | +0.41 | 0.3 | 41% |
| 2025-02-08 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 0.89 | 2.08 | 3–2 | 1.9 | +1.19 | 0.9 | 28% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 3 | 15.0 | 1.07 |
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 72% | — |
| Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 14 | 57% | — |
| Cactus Cup | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.7 | 2.21 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.4 | 1.63 |
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.9 | 1.35 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 4 | 10.8 | 1.41 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Mustang Open Varsity | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.8 | 2.00 |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 11 | 64% | — |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta Coed | Skipper | B | 6 | 14.5 | 0.96 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.2 | 1.75 |
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 9 | 11.6 | 1.07 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 8 | 5.6 | 2.79 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC South Designate Semis | Skipper | B | 10 | 14.7 | 0.24 |
| Mark Healy PCCSC Open Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 10 | 13.9 | -0.43 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
