Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship

HostStanford
Date04/04/2026
TypeConference Championship
Boat420/FJ
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Stanford University	Cardinal	14–0
2	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	8–6
3	San Diego State University	Aztecs	8–6
4	University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	7–7
5	University of Southern California	Trojans	3–5
6	University of Hawaii	Rainbows	3–5
7	California Poly Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	3–5
8	University of California at Berkeley	Bears	2–6
9	University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs	0–8

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 30,349 team race matches sailed before 2026-04-04, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 33 of 48 matches (69%) with a log-loss of 0.468 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.19 ± 0.27: a typical event, more orderly than 24% of college team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Stanford University Cardinal	1	11.28 school +0.47, home +0.34	Thomas Whidden / Alexandra Jones 3.63 10–0 Dylan Sih / Shay Wood 3.65 8–0 Lucas Woodworth / Amiya Stroumza 3.56 5–0 Lucas Woodworth / Caroline Geiger 3.56 4–0 Dylan Sih / Alexandra Jones 3.57 4–0 Lucas Woodworth / Ashtyn Tierney 3.58 3–0 Freddie Parkin / Amiya Stroumza 3.57 3–0 Ashtyn Tierney / Dylan Sih 1–0 Lucas Woodworth / Shay Wood 3.65 1–0 Shay Wood / Dylan Sih 1–0 Ashtyn Tierney / Lucas Woodworth 1–0 Thomas Whidden / Caroline Geiger 3.63 1–0	96%	14–0 (100%)	+0.5
2	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	7	6.63 school −0.18	Morgan Headington / Mila Kane 2.60 Noah Shefer / Andrew Dolle 2.50 Marina Priskich / Parker Ziegler 1.84 8–3 Robert Bloomfield / Brynn Jolly 0.99 0–3	25%	8–6 (57%)	+4.5
3	San Diego State University Aztecs	5	8.36 school +0.18	Owen Gormely / Macaela Wilton 1.45 Noah Nyenhuis / Lily Schweber 2.96 Ian Nyenhuis / Sadie Marinerstein 3.72	54%	8–6 (57%)	+0.4
4	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	3	8.51 school −0.18	Henry Boeger / Kayla Spalding 2.99 Jonathan Seawards / Avalon Everett 2.97 Ted Mcdonough / Renee Lehto 2.66	57%	7–7 (50%)	−1.0
5	University of Southern California Trojans	2	8.03 school +0.12	Hudson Mayfield / Morgana Manti 2.77 Luke Harris / Ava Bergan 3.00 Maximilian Conze / Julia Szymanski 1.87 2–2 Cameron Law / Julia Szymanski 2.37 1–3	59%	3–5 (38%)	−1.7
6	University of Hawaii Rainbows	6	7.68 school −0.07	Erik Anderson / Amanda Turner 3.27 Everett Mcavoy / Alister Muto 2.34 2–5 Martha Schuessler / Stella Taherian 2.32 3–4 Spencer Fleming / Leila Landay 1–1	49%	3–5 (38%)	−0.9
7	California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	4	7.91 school +0.20	Nicholas Mueller / Chloe Hedge 2.70 Tate Oyler / Oscar Perry 2.54 Kaden Miller / Indigo Craig 2.37	56%	3–5 (38%)	−1.4
8	University of California at Berkeley Bears	8	5.53 school +0.14	Wilton Lawton / Aliyah Al-Khafaji 1.96 Carsten Zieger / Annika Baumgartner 2.10 Nathaniel Grinkrug / Gabriel Rousseau 1.31	15%	2–6 (25%)	+0.8
9	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	9	5.59 school −0.17	Isaac Sharp / Jessie Swain 2.01 Joaquin Desrochers / Emilia Mcnabb 1.85 Colin Olson / Devon Baker-Berry 1.91 0–4 Colin Olson / Conor Kim 1.85 0–2 Colin Olson / Caden Domingo 1.83 0–2	14%	0–8 (0%)	−1.1

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Stanford University	11.28	14.28	14–0	13.5	≥+3.00	0.7	59%
2	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	6.63	8.74	8–6	3.5	+2.11	7.1	<1%
8	University of California at Berkeley	5.53	6.31	2–6	1.2	+0.78	0.5	34%
3	San Diego State University	8.36	8.56	8–6	7.6	+0.21	0.1	53%
4	University of California at Santa Barbara	8.51	8.04	7–7	8.0	−0.47	0.3	85%
6	University of Hawaii	7.68	7.03	3–5	3.9	−0.65	0.4	89%
7	California Poly Maritime Academy	7.91	6.86	3–5	4.4	−1.05	1.1	95%
5	University of Southern California	8.03	6.83	3–5	4.7	−1.20	1.5	97%
9	University of California at Santa Cruz	5.59	2.59	0–8	1.1	≤−3.00	1.9	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Dylan Sih	Stanford University	3.65	6.65	12–0	11.7	≥+3.00	0.4	74%
Lucas Woodworth	Stanford University	3.56	6.56	13–0	12.5	≥+3.00	0.7	60%
Thomas Whidden	Stanford University	3.63	6.63	11–0	10.6	≥+3.00	0.5	69%
Freddie Parkin	Stanford University	3.57	6.57	3–0	2.9	≥+3.00	0.2	86%
Marina Priskich	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	1.84	3.99	8–3	3.5	+2.15	7.2	<1%
Morgan Headington	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	2.60	4.70	8–6	3.5	+2.11	7.1	<1%
Noah Shefer	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	2.50	4.61	8–6	3.5	+2.11	7.1	<1%
Wilton Lawton	University of California at Berkeley	1.96	2.74	2–6	1.2	+0.78	0.5	34%
Carsten Zieger	University of California at Berkeley	2.10	2.87	2–6	1.2	+0.78	0.5	34%
Nathaniel Grinkrug	University of California at Berkeley	1.31	2.09	2–6	1.2	+0.78	0.5	34%
Owen Gormely	San Diego State University	1.45	1.66	8–6	7.6	+0.21	0.1	53%
Noah Nyenhuis	San Diego State University	2.96	3.17	8–6	7.6	+0.21	0.1	53%
Ian Nyenhuis	San Diego State University	3.72	3.93	8–6	7.6	+0.21	0.1	53%
Martha Schuessler	University of Hawaii	2.32	1.98	3–4	3.4	−0.35	0.1	80%
Henry Boeger	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.99	2.52	7–7	8.0	−0.47	0.3	85%
Jonathan Seawards	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.97	2.50	7–7	8.0	−0.47	0.3	85%
Ted Mcdonough	University of California at Santa Barbara	2.66	2.19	7–7	8.0	−0.47	0.3	85%
Erik Anderson	University of Hawaii	3.27	2.62	3–5	3.9	−0.65	0.4	89%
Maximilian Conze	University of Southern California	1.87	1.15	2–2	2.4	−0.72	0.2	91%
Everett Mcavoy	University of Hawaii	2.34	1.39	2–5	3.2	−0.95	0.8	93%
Nicholas Mueller	California Poly Maritime Academy	2.70	1.65	3–5	4.4	−1.05	1.1	95%
Tate Oyler	California Poly Maritime Academy	2.54	1.49	3–5	4.4	−1.05	1.1	95%
Kaden Miller	California Poly Maritime Academy	2.37	1.31	3–5	4.4	−1.05	1.1	95%
Hudson Mayfield	University of Southern California	2.77	1.56	3–5	4.7	−1.20	1.5	97%
Luke Harris	University of Southern California	3.00	1.80	3–5	4.7	−1.20	1.5	97%
Cameron Law	University of Southern California	2.37	0.79	1–3	2.3	−1.58	1.4	98%
Robert Bloomfield	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	0.99	-2.01	0–3	0.0	≤−3.00	0.0	>99%
Colin Olson	University of California at Santa Cruz	1.91	-1.09	0–8	1.1	≤−3.00	1.9	>99%
Isaac Sharp	University of California at Santa Cruz	2.01	-0.99	0–8	1.1	≤−3.00	1.9	>99%
Joaquin Desrochers	University of California at Santa Cruz	1.85	-1.15	0–8	1.1	≤−3.00	1.9	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	100%
1	2	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Santa Cruz	95%
1	3	San Diego State University	California Poly Maritime Academy	62%
1	4	University of California at Berkeley	University of Southern California	10%	upset
1	5	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of Hawaii	48%	upset
1	6	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Cruz	100%
1	7	University of Southern California	California Poly Maritime Academy	48%	upset
1	8	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of California at Berkeley	95%
1	9	Stanford University	University of Hawaii	98%
1	10	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	San Diego State University	18%	upset
1	11	University of California at Berkeley	University of California at Santa Cruz	48%	upset
1	12	University of California at Santa Barbara	California Poly Maritime Academy	64%
1	13	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of Southern California	19%	upset
1	14	Stanford University	San Diego State University	97%
1	15	University of Hawaii	University of California at Berkeley	79%
1	16	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Southern California	55%
1	17	California Poly Maritime Academy	University of California at Santa Cruz	91%
1	18	San Diego State University	University of Hawaii	60%
1	19	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Berkeley	78%
1	20	Stanford University	California Poly Maritime Academy	90%
1	21	University of California at Santa Barbara	University of Hawaii	63%
1	22	University of Southern California	University of California at Santa Cruz	90%
1	23	San Diego State University	University of California at Berkeley	94%
1	24	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	California Poly Maritime Academy	24%	upset
1	25	Stanford University	University of Southern California	89%
1	26	University of Hawaii	University of California at Santa Cruz	92%
1	27	San Diego State University	University of California at Santa Barbara	46%	upset
1	28	California Poly Maritime Academy	University of California at Berkeley	92%
1	29	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Santa Cruz	78%
1	30	University of Hawaii	University of Southern California	42%	upset
1	31	Stanford University	University of California at Berkeley	99%
1	32	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	84%
1	33	San Diego State University	University of California at Santa Cruz	94%
1	34	California Poly Maritime Academy	University of Hawaii	50%	upset
1	35	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	95%
1	36	University of Southern California	San Diego State University	49%	upset
1	37	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	University of California at Santa Barbara	16%	upset
1	38	Stanford University	San Diego State University	96%
1	39	San Diego State University	University of California at Santa Barbara	46%	upset
1	40	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	100%
1	41	San Diego State University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	82%
1	42	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	95%
2	43	University of California at Santa Barbara	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	84%
2	44	Stanford University	San Diego State University	96%
2	45	San Diego State University	University of California at Santa Barbara	46%	upset
2	46	Stanford University	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	100%
2	47	Cal Poly University S.L.O.	San Diego State University	18%	upset
2	48	Stanford University	University of California at Santa Barbara	95%

Round 1

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Mustangs	Aztecs	Gauchos	Trojans	Rainbows	Keelhaulers	Bears	Slugs
Stanford University Cardinal	11–0	✕	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	7–4	L	✕	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
San Diego State University Aztecs	7–4	L	W	✕	W	L	W	W	W	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	6–5	L	L	L	✕	W	W	W	W	W
University of Southern California Trojans	3–5	L	L	W	L	✕	L	W	L	W
University of Hawaii Rainbows	3–5	L	L	L	L	W	✕	L	W	W
California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	3–5	L	L	L	L	L	W	✕	W	W
University of California at Berkeley Bears	2–6	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	✕	W
University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	0–8	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	✕

Round 2

Team	Rec.	Cardinal	Mustangs	Aztecs	Gauchos
Stanford University Cardinal	3–0	✕	W	W	W
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	1–2	L	✕	W	L
San Diego State University Aztecs	1–2	L	L	✕	W
University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	1–2	L	W	L	✕

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
2	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
3	Aztecs	2-3-4	def.	Keelhaulers	1-5-6
4	Bears	1-2-4	def.	Trojans	3-5-6
5	Mustangs	1-4-5	def.	Rainbows	2-3-6
6	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Banana Slugs	4-5-6
7	Trojans	1-2-3	def.	Keelhaulers	4-5-6
8	Gauchos	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
9	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Rainbows	3-5-6
10	Mustangs	1-4-5	def.	Aztecs	2-3-6
11	Bears	1-3-4	def.	Banana Slugs	2-5-6
12	Gauchos	1-4-5	def.	Keelhaulers	2-3-6
13	Mustangs	1-3-5	def.	Trojans	2-4-6
14	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Aztecs	3-4-6
15	Rainbows	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
16	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Trojans	1-5-6
17	Keelhaulers	1-2-6	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-5
18	Aztecs	1-2-6	def.	Rainbows	3-4-5
19	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
20	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Keelhaulers	3-5-6
21	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Rainbows	1-5-6
22	Trojans	1-2-6	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-5
23	Aztecs	1-2-5	def.	Bears	3-4-6
24	Mustangs	1-3-5	def.	Keelhaulers	2-4-6
25	Cardinal	1-2-6	def.	Trojans	3-4-5
26	Rainbows	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
27	Aztecs	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
28	Keelhaulers	1-2-6	def.	Bears	3-4-5
29	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
30	Rainbows	2-3-4	def.	Trojans	1-5-6
31	Cardinal	1-2-4	def.	Bears	3-5-6
32	Gauchos	1-2-6	def.	Mustangs	3-4-5
33	Aztecs	1-2-5	def.	Banana Slugs	3-4-6
34	Keelhaulers	1-3-6	def.	Rainbows	2-4-5
35	Cardinal	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
36	Trojans	1-2-5	def.	Aztecs	3-4-6
37	Mustangs	1-2-6	def.	Gauchos	3-4-5
38	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Aztecs	4-5-6
39	Aztecs	2-3-4	def.	Gauchos	1-5-6
40	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
41	Aztecs	2-3-4	def.	Mustangs	1-5-6
42	Cardinal	1-2-3	def.	Gauchos	4-5-6
43	Gauchos	2-3-4	def.	Mustangs	1-5-6
44	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Aztecs	3-4-6
45	Aztecs	2-3-5	def.	Gauchos	1-4-6
46	Cardinal	1-3-5	def.	Mustangs	2-4-6
47	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Aztecs	3-4-6
48	Cardinal	1-2-5	def.	Gauchos	3-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Stanford University	Cardinal	Ashtyn Tierney '28 Dylan Sih '28 Freddie Parkin '29 Lucas Woodworth '27 Shay Wood '27 Thomas Whidden '28	Dylan Sih '28 Lucas Woodworth '27 Shay Wood '27 Alexandra Jones '28 Amiya Stroumza '28 Caroline Geiger '28 Ashtyn Tierney '28
Cal Poly University S.L.O.	Mustangs	Marina Priskich '29 Morgan Headington '28 Noah Shefer '29 Robert Bloomfield '26	Parker Ziegler '28 Mila Kane '29 Andrew Dolle '29 Brynn Jolly '29
San Diego State University	Aztecs	Ian Nyenhuis '29 Noah Nyenhuis '27 Owen Gormely '27	Sadie Marinerstein '28 Lily Schweber '27 Macaela Wilton '27
University of California at Santa Barbara	Gauchos	Henry Boeger '26 Jonathan Seawards '26 Ted Mcdonough '26	Kayla Spalding '28 Avalon Everett '27 Renee Lehto '29
University of Southern California	Trojans	Cameron Law '29 Hudson Mayfield '27 Luke Harris '27 Maximilian Conze '28	Julia Szymanski '28 Morgana Manti '26 Ava Bergan '27
University of Hawaii	Rainbows	Erik Anderson '26 Everett Mcavoy '26 Martha Schuessler '27 Spencer Fleming '27	Amanda Turner '27 Alister Muto '29 Stella Taherian '27 Leila Landay '29
California Poly Maritime Academy	Keelhaulers	Kaden Miller '29 Nicholas Mueller '27 Tate Oyler '29	Indigo Craig '29 Chloe Hedge '29 Oscar Perry '28
University of California at Berkeley	Bears	Carsten Zieger '28 Nathaniel Grinkrug '27 Wilton Lawton '26	Annika Baumgartner '28 Gabriel Rousseau '27 Aliyah Al-Khafaji '27
University of California at Santa Cruz	Banana Slugs	Colin Olson '26 Isaac Sharp '26 Joaquin Desrochers '29	Caden Domingo '27 Devon Baker-Berry '26 Conor Kim '27 Jessie Swain '29 Emilia Mcnabb '28

Conditions — 04/04/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 37% · Pressure 1018.2 hPa

Temperature

71°F

↑ 79°F ↓ 57°F

Feels like 70°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

2.6 kn

avg · max 4.9 kn

Gusts to 12.2 kn

From N (7°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity37% Pressure1018.2 hPa

What this breeze does at Stanford — from fleet racing

Breeze: N about 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Stanford in this breeze: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.13)

Favourites’ conditions: in fleet racing here the results follow the ratings more closely than usual, and the top seeds hold their places.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled fleet-race days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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