University of Southern California '29
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.97 (fleet 2.78) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.04 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–9 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 2 | 9–9 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (18 matches) the record is 9–9 against 10.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.37 | 0.79 | 1–3 | 2.3 | −1.58 | 1.4 | 98% |
| 2026-02-21 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 2.09 | 1.94 | 8–6 | 8.3 | −0.16 | 0.0 | 72% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Top-9 Spring Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 10.9 | 0.53 |
| Open Western National Semis | Skipper | B | 3 | 11.7 | 2.55 |
| Mustang Open JV | Skipper | B | 4 | 1.8 | -0.49 |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 67% | — |
| Jeff Simon Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 2.9 | 4.00 |
| Harbor Cup Keelboat | Crew | A | 10 | 4.2 | — |
| Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 38% | — |
| Admiral's Cup | Skipper | B | 8 | 6.8 | 2.49 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| West Coast Championships | Skipper | B | 3 | 4.3 | 3.75 |
| UCSD Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.4 | 2.47 |
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | B | 8 | 2.4 | 3.53 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 4 | 7.0 | 2.40 |
| 2026 Rose Bowl Regatta | Skipper | A | 2 | 15.0 | 2.17 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
