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Top-9 Spring Invite

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 R13 R14 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 7 2 4 9 1 1 2 1 11 1 1 1 10 1 52 Thomas Whidden '28 [1-6]
Freddie Parkin '29 [7-14]
Amiya Stroumza '28 [1-6]
Abby Baird '28 [7-14]
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 8 1 1 1 2 4 8 5 4 7 6 6 2 7 62 Dylan Sih '28 [1-14]
Caroline Geiger '28 [1-6]
Alexandra Jones '28 [7-14]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs A 1 3 3 2 3 5 1 3 15 4 7 3 5 5 80 MRP Ian Nyenhuis '29
Sadie Marinerstein '28
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows A 9 6 5 10 16 9 4 12 2 5 4 5 6 4 97 Erik Anderson '26
Amanda Turner '27
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 5 9 15 6 12 13 6 2 3 3 10 8 1 6 99 Henry Boeger '26 [1-14]
Kayla Spalding '28 [1-6]
Samuel Long '27 [7-14]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans B 10 4 6 3 4 7 12 7 13 8 5 9 3 13 104 Luke Harris '27
Ava Bergan '27
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings A 12 8 7 4 11 11 3 14 6 2 13 4 15 3 113 Leif Hauge '28 [1-14]
Yuri Berebitsky '27 [1-2, 7-14]
Erica Stavnem '28 [3-6]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs B 4 5 2 7 9 10 9 8 1 11 2 7 9 12 116 MRP Noah Nyenhuis '27
Lily Schweber '27
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans A 2 10 9 8 7 12 14 15 7 9 14 10 8 10 135 Hudson Mayfield '27 [1-6, 11-14]
Cameron Law '29 [7-10]
Nicole Drake '28 [1-6]
Hudson Mayfield '27 [7-10]
Cameron Law '29 [11-14]
California Poly Maritime Academy California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers A 3 16 13 13 6 17 11 9 8 12 9 2 12 11 142 Nicholas Mueller '27 [1-14]
Chloe Hedge '29 [1-10]
Cameron Furin '29 [11-14]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies A 14 7 10 5 15 16 7 6 9 14 11 12 7 9 142 Benjamin Stone '27
Jaya Wirth '27
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Rainbows B 18 11 17 17 13 6 5 4 5 6 8 13 14 8 145 Everett Mcavoy '26 [1-2, 7-14]
William Bagley '29 [3-6]
Alister Muto '29 [1-2, 7-14]
California Poly Maritime Academy California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers B 6 17 16 11 8 3 10 13 10 18 DNS 15 11 16 173 Tate Oyler '29 [1-4, 7-9]
Kaden Miller '29 [5-6, 10-14]
Gavin Steuerwald '28 [1-4, 7-14]
Cameron Furin '29 [5-6]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings B 17 13 14 16 10 2 15 18 12 16 DNS 11 16 2 181 Adam Turloff '27 [1-14]
Cora Gunderson '27 [1-12]
Erica Stavnem '28 [13-14]
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 15 15 8 12 18 18 17 11 18 13 12 16 4 15 192 Julian Skerrett '26
Avalon Everett '27
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies B 11 14 12 15 14 15 16 17 17 15 15 17 18 14 210 Lhotse Rowell '28 [1-14]
Ava Butterfield '28 [1-11]
Kirin Dhaka '27 [12-14]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 16 18 18 14 17 14 13 10 16 10 3 14 13 18 214 MRP Carsten Zieger '28
Annika Baumgartner '28
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 13 12 11 18 5 8 18 16 14 17 16 18 17 17 220 MRP Wilton Lawton '26
Aliyah Al-Khafaji '27
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A13A14A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears44444444444444
California Poly Maritime AcademyCalifornia Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers11111111111111
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows66666666666666
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs22222222222222
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans77777777777777
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal33333333333333
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos55555555555555
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies88888888888888
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings99999999999999

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B13B14B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears1313131313131313131313131313
California Poly Maritime AcademyCalifornia Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers1010101010101010101010101010
University of HawaiiUniversity of Hawaii Rainbows1515151515151515151515151515
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs1111111111111111111111111111
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans1616161616161616161616161616
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal1212121212121212121212121212
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos1414141414141414141414141414
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies1717171717171717171717171717
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings1818181818181818181818181818
School / Team SkipperCrew
California Poly Maritime Academy California Poly Maritime Academy Nicholas Mueller '27 [1-14] Chloe Hedge '29 [1-10]
Cameron Furin '29 [11-14]
Keelhaulers Tate Oyler '29 [1-4, 7-9]
Kaden Miller '29 [5-6, 10-14]		 Gavin Steuerwald '28 [1-4, 7-14]
Cameron Furin '29 [5-6]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Ian Nyenhuis '29 Sadie Marinerstein '28
Aztecs Noah Nyenhuis '27 Lily Schweber '27
Stanford University Stanford University Thomas Whidden '28 [1-6]
Freddie Parkin '29 [7-14]		 Amiya Stroumza '28 [1-6]
Abby Baird '28 [7-14]
Cardinal Dylan Sih '28 [1-14] Caroline Geiger '28 [1-6]
Alexandra Jones '28 [7-14]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Wilton Lawton '26 Aliyah Al-Khafaji '27
Bears Carsten Zieger '28 Annika Baumgartner '28
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Henry Boeger '26 [1-14] Kayla Spalding '28 [1-6]
Samuel Long '27 [7-14]
Gauchos Julian Skerrett '26 Avalon Everett '27
University of Hawaii University of Hawaii Erik Anderson '26 Amanda Turner '27
Rainbows Everett Mcavoy '26 [1-2, 7-14]
William Bagley '29 [3-6]		 Alister Muto '29 [1-2, 7-14]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Hudson Mayfield '27 [1-6, 11-14]
Cameron Law '29 [7-10]		 Nicole Drake '28 [1-6]
Hudson Mayfield '27 [7-10]
Cameron Law '29 [11-14]
Trojans Luke Harris '27 Ava Bergan '27
University of Washington University of Washington Benjamin Stone '27 Jaya Wirth '27
Huskies Lhotse Rowell '28 [1-14] Ava Butterfield '28 [1-11]
Kirin Dhaka '27 [12-14]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Leif Hauge '28 [1-14] Yuri Berebitsky '27 [1-2, 7-14]
Erica Stavnem '28 [3-6]
Vikings Adam Turloff '27 [1-14] Cora Gunderson '27 [1-12]
Erica Stavnem '28 [13-14]

Conditions — 02/14/2026 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 77%  ·  Pressure 1016.5 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 61°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.5 kn
avg  ·  max 7.6 kn
Gusts to 17.3 kn
From S (181°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine6.3 hrs Humidity77% Pressure1016.5 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 6 kn* · S 15 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.14 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.06
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.18 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →