University of California at Berkeley '26
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.47 (fleet 1.96) | 280 of 328 | +0.05 ± 0.16 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 32–75 (30%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 | 3 | 11–23 | — |
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 2–7 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 3 | 9–19 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 10–26 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 9 graded regattas (107 matches) the record is 32–75 against 28.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.0). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.96 | 2.74 | 2–6 | 1.2 | +0.78 | 0.5 | 34% |
| 2026-03-07 | Mustang Team Race | skipper | 1.86 | 0.94 | 4–4 | 5.1 | −0.92 | 0.7 | 93% |
| 2026-02-21 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.95 | 2.27 | 5–13 | 4.4 | +0.32 | 0.1 | 45% |
| 2025-04-12 | PCCSC Carter Ford Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.57 | 1.75 | 2–7 | 1.8 | +0.18 | 0.0 | 57% |
| 2024-03-17 | Sunshine City Team Race (USF Next 5) | skipper | 1.52 | 0.44 | 1–3 | 1.8 | −1.08 | 0.6 | 94% |
| 2024-03-16 | Sunshine City Team Race (Eckerd) | skipper | 1.55 | -1.45 | 0–9 | 2.1 | ≤−3.00 | 4.2 | >99% |
| 2024-03-02 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.35 | 2.36 | 8–7 | 5.9 | +1.01 | 1.5 | 14% |
| 2023-04-08 | PCCSC Carter Ford Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.27 | 2.51 | 6–15 | 2.8 | +1.24 | 3.1 | 4% |
| 2023-02-25 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 0.97 | 1.67 | 4–11 | 3.0 | +0.70 | 0.5 | 31% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2026 Team page Season | |||||
| Top-9 Spring Invite | Skipper | A | 14 | 14.3 | 0.45 |
| PCCSC South Designate 2026 | Skipper | A | 6 | 10.7 | 1.98 |
| Mustang Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 50% | — |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 18 | 28% | — |
| Harris Kempner | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.6 | 2.26 |
| Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 8 | 25% | — |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 5.4 | 1.93 |
| Fall 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 5.0 | 2.48 |
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.2 | 2.66 |
| Kiara Broudy Memorial Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 4.6 | 2.13 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 4 | 12.0 | 2.23 |
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Carter Ford Open Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 9 | 22% | — |
| Mustang Open Varsity | Skipper | B | 7 | 7.0 | 0.65 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.5 | 2.20 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.6 | 2.02 |
| Hewitt Trophy | Skipper | A | 4 | 14.2 | -0.55 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | C | 4 | 9.0 | 1.55 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Top-9 Invite | Skipper | A | 18 | 13.8 | -1.27 |
| Sunshine City Team Race (USF Next 5) | Skipper | TR | 4 | 25% | — |
| Sunshine City Team Race (Eckerd) | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 53% | — |
| Mark Healy PCCSC Open Conference Championship | Skipper | B | 12 | 7.2 | 2.24 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | B | 10 | 5.9 | 1.57 |
| Top-9 Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.0 | 0.05 |
| Fall Pacific Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.7 | 0.73 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| Top-9 Open | Skipper | B | 6 | 14.3 | — |
| PCCSC Carter Ford Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 21 | 29% | — |
| Pacific Coast Open Fleet Race Championships | Skipper | B | 14 | 8.4 | 1.75 |
| McIntyre Team Race | Skipper | TR | 15 | 27% | — |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 9 | 13.1 | 1.25 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | A | 3 | 4.0 | 1.91 |
| Fall PCC JV | Skipper | A | 5 | 7.6 | 1.30 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Wilton Lawton |  Belmont Hill School |
'23 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
