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Top-9 Invite

SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal A 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 9 Reade Decker '27
Ellie Harned '26
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal B 2 2 4 2 2 2 1 2 17 Lucas Woodworth '27
Alice Schmid '27
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins A 4 5 13 7 3 7 4 3 46 Marianna Shand '24
Linnea Jackson '25
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos A 5 8 3 13 4 3 5 6 47 Jasper Reid '25
Joshua Pelletier '24
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans A 6 4 2 8 11 8 3 7 49 Morgana Manti '26
Hudson Mayfield '27
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs B 12 6 5 6 7 9 6 4 55 Robert Bloomfield '26
Samuel Groom '24
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos B 8 3 8 12 10 4 7 9 61 Caleb Yoslov '25
Rahul Sankar '23
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs A 3 10 11 10 6 6 13 10 69 Max Case '24 [1-6]
Jack Kisling '25 [7-8]
Mira Shupe '26 [1-6]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans B 7 11 7 4 9 13 10 8 69 Luke Harris '27
Genaro Flores - Machorro '25
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers A 9 7 9 9 5 12 8 11 70 Clay Myers '25
Etienne Quille '25
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies B 14 12 12 11 8 5 9 15 86 Sean Von Engelbrechten '23
Blossom Jee '25
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears A 11 9 14 3 15 10 14 12 88 Wilton Lawton '26
Tessa Greene '26
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies A 13 14 10 16 12 18 15 13 111 Dylan Wondolleck '27
Abraham Gomez '25
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers B 10 15 16 14 14 14 16 17 116 Ryan Downey '25
Charles Bedford '24
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs A 15 17 6 5 17 15 12 14 121 MRP George Soliman '24
Conor Kim '27
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears B 17 13 17 15 16 11 17 16 122 Michael Mcculloch '25
Zoe Flemate '25
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs B 16 16 15 17 13 17 11 5 130 MRP Blake Roberts '25 [1-8]
Lucas Elliott '25 [1-4]
Carter Anderson '27 [5-8]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins B 18 18 18 18 18 16 18 18 142 Conrad Kistler '26 [1-8]
Phineas Fritsch '27 [1-7]
Orion Spatafora '25 [8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (9 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears44332211
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers221118181717
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs11223344
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans99101011111212
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal33445566
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies55667788
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins66554433
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos7788991010
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs88776655

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears1313141415151616
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers1111121213131414
Cal Poly University S.L.O.Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs1010998877
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans1818171716161515
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal12121111101099
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies1414131312121111
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins1515161617171818
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos1616151514141313
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs171718181122

Conditions — 10/28/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 50%  ·  Pressure 1019.9 hPa

Temperature

60°F
↑ 67°F   ↓ 45°F
Feels like 56°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.2 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 18.3 kn
From NNW (333°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover10% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity50% Pressure1019.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NW 10 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Stanford: a favourites’ day (+0.06)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment −0.06 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast +0.00
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.13 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.06 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Stanford by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (48 labelled days at Stanford).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →