University of California at Santa Cruz '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.50 (fleet 2.09) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.17 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–56 (20%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 | 1 | 5–2 | — |
| Spring 2024 | 2 | 4–15 | — |
| Spring 2023 | 3 | 5–39 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 6 graded regattas (70 matches) the record is 14–56 against 17.2 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | Mustang Team Race | skipper | 1.89 | 1.63 | 5–2 | 5.3 | −0.26 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2024-03-02 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.45 | 1.49 | 4–11 | 3.9 | +0.05 | 0.0 | 60% |
| 2024-02-03 | Mustang Team Race | skipper | 1.35 | -1.65 | 0–4 | 1.1 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| 2023-04-08 | PCCSC Carter Ford Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.12 | -0.06 | 2–19 | 4.4 | −1.18 | 1.9 | 98% |
| 2023-02-25 | McIntyre Team Race | skipper | 1.11 | 0.74 | 1–14 | 1.3 | −0.37 | 0.1 | 79% |
| 2023-02-11 | Mustang Team Race | skipper | 0.88 | 1.70 | 2–6 | 1.1 | +0.82 | 0.5 | 32% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
