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PCCSC South Designate Semis

Analysis
# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 14 22 36
2 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 31 65 96
3 University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 53 49 102
4 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 64 76 140
5 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 88 66 154
6 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 79 91 170
7 Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 100 86 186
8 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 100 93 193
9 University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 81 116 197
10 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 100 107 207
11 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 130 77 207
12 San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 126 154 280
13 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 136 152 288
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 14 Vanessa Lahrkamp '26
Gwendolyn Donahue '24
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 1 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 7 31 Grant Janov '25
Emma Worthington '23
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 7 2 5 3 4 6 3 3 6 7 2 5 53 Ted Mcdonough '25
Joshua Pelletier '24
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 8 4 6 2 9 5 5 9 4 5 4 3 64 Noah Barton '23
Drake Coy '23
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 4 5 4 7 7 3 6 5 3 8 13 DNF 79 Morgana Manti '26
Ryan Mccarthy '23
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 5 6 7 11 5 9 9 4 5 9 5 6 81 Aragorn Crozier '24
Emily Smith '25
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 10 7 3 9 6 4 11 8 11 10 7 2 88 Kawika Tumilowicz '25
Julia Mast '23
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 3 8 11 12 13 13 10 6 8 6 6 4 100 Dalton Lovett '25
Eric Newell '24
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 6 10 9 8 3 8 12 10 9 4 12 9 100 Aidan Boylan '24
Noah Lovelace '25
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 11 9 8 6 8 7 4 11 7 13 8 8 100 Blake Roberts '25 [1-12]
Ryan Martin '23 [1-8]
Connor Fagan '26 [9-12]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 13 13 13 5 12 10 7 7 10 11 11 DNS 126 Morgan Burton '23
Liza Veselova '23
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 12 11 10 13 11 11 13 12 OCS 3 10 10 130 Robert Bloomfield '26
Colin Thompson '25
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 9 12 12 10 10 12 8 DNF DNF 12 9 DNS 136 Victoria Chen '25
Aaron Shalf '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 R11 R12 TOT Sailors
Stanford University Stanford University Cardinal 3 1 4 1 1 4 1 1 1 3 1 1 22 Sophie Fisher '26
Patricia Gerli '23
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos 1 6 1 2 3 1 7 9 8 6 2 3 49 David Alexander '23
Leela Barlow '23
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 2 2 3 7 2 8 11 7 1 10 10 65 Gideon Burnes Heath '23
Teresa Dang '24
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 10 3 3 4 2 DNF 3 2 2 9 3 11 66 Kyle Farmer '26
Safari Frisell '25
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 8 11 7 10 5 3 5 7 5 7 6 2 76 Gabriel Reuter '23
Stella Potter '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 6 8 6 6 4 DNF 2 4 DNF 4 4 5 77 Ryan Milne '26
Chloe Schofield '23
Western Washington University Western Washington University Vikings 5 4 11 7 6 DNF 9 8 9 2 7 4 86 Nathan Gerber '26 [1-12]
Matthew Lindburg '25 [1-2, 5-6, 8-9, 12]
Bayard Johnson '27 [3-4, 7, 10-11]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 7 5 5 5 9 5 6 10 DNF 8 9 8 91 Marlo Bozza '25 [1-9]
Edward Ansart '24 [10-12]
John Hutchison '23 [1-9]
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 9 12 10 11 10 DNF 4 3 4 5 5 6 93 Matt Grimsley '26
Patrick Gardiner '26
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 11 13 8 8 8 DNF 10 5 3 12 8 7 107 George Soliman '24 [1-8]
Ryan Martin '23 [9-12]
Connor Fagan '26 [1-8]
Irene Abfalterer '25 [9-12]
University of Washington University of Washington Huskies 4 9 12 9 11 DNF DNF 6 6 11 11 9 116 Zackery Martin '23 [1-5, 8-9]
Thomas Pentimonti '24 [6-7, 10-12]
Lauren Mcclintock '25 [1-7, 10-12]
Thomas Pentimonti '24 [8-9]
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 12 7 9 13 DNF DNS DNS DNS DNS 13 DNF DNS 152 Fiona Wu '25 [1-12]
Madalyn Gordon '25 [1-11]
Tammy Le '25 [12]
San Diego State University San Diego State University Aztecs 13 10 13 12 12 DNF DNS DNS DNS 10 DNF DNS 154 Tegan Smith '24
Paige Karsten '26
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.280+0.28
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2010 (19 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A11A12A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils393939393939393939393939
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears232323232323232323232323
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers101101101101101101101101101101101101
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs151515151515151515151515
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans373737373737373737373737
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal212121212121212121212121
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins272727272727272727272727
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons292929292929292929292929
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos313131313131313131313131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs134134134134134134134134134134134134
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies818181818181818181818181
Western Washington UniversityWestern Washington University Vikings878787878787878787878787

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B11B12B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils404040404040404040404040
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears242424242424242424242424
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers111111111111
San Diego State UniversitySan Diego State University Aztecs161616161616161616161616
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans137137137137137137137137137137137137
Stanford UniversityStanford University Cardinal222222222222222222222222
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins282828282828282828282828
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons303030303030303030303030
University of California at Santa BarbaraUniversity of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos131131131131131131131131131131131131
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs343434343434343434343434
University of WashingtonUniversity of Washington Huskies828282828282828282828282
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Aidan Boylan '24 Noah Lovelace '25
Sun Devils Matt Grimsley '26 Patrick Gardiner '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Robert Bloomfield '26 Colin Thompson '25
Mustangs Ryan Milne '26 Chloe Schofield '23
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Kawika Tumilowicz '25 Julia Mast '23
Keelhaulers Kyle Farmer '26 Safari Frisell '25
San Diego State University San Diego State University Morgan Burton '23 Liza Veselova '23
Aztecs Tegan Smith '24 Paige Karsten '26
Stanford University Stanford University Vanessa Lahrkamp '26 Gwendolyn Donahue '24
Cardinal Sophie Fisher '26 Patricia Gerli '23
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Victoria Chen '25 Aaron Shalf '23
Bears Fiona Wu '25 [1-12] Madalyn Gordon '25 [1-11]
Tammy Le '25 [12]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Grant Janov '25 Emma Worthington '23
Bruins Gideon Burnes Heath '23 Teresa Dang '24
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Noah Barton '23 Drake Coy '23
Tritons Gabriel Reuter '23 Stella Potter '26
University of California at Santa Barbara University of California at Santa Barbara Ted Mcdonough '25 Joshua Pelletier '24
Gauchos David Alexander '23 Leela Barlow '23
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Blake Roberts '25 [1-12] Ryan Martin '23 [1-8]
Connor Fagan '26 [9-12]
Banana Slugs George Soliman '24 [1-8]
Ryan Martin '23 [9-12]		 Connor Fagan '26 [1-8]
Irene Abfalterer '25 [9-12]
University of Southern California University of Southern California Morgana Manti '26 Ryan Mccarthy '23
Trojans Marlo Bozza '25 [1-9]
Edward Ansart '24 [10-12]		 John Hutchison '23 [1-9]
University of Washington University of Washington Aragorn Crozier '24 Emily Smith '25
Huskies Zackery Martin '23 [1-5, 8-9]
Thomas Pentimonti '24 [6-7, 10-12]		 Lauren Mcclintock '25 [1-7, 10-12]
Thomas Pentimonti '24 [8-9]
Western Washington University Western Washington University Dalton Lovett '25 Eric Newell '24
Vikings Nathan Gerber '26 [1-12] Matthew Lindburg '25 [1-2, 5-6, 8-9, 12]
Bayard Johnson '27 [3-4, 7, 10-11]

Conditions — 03/25/2023 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1018.9 hPa

Temperature

56°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 49°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 10.9 kn
Gusts to 18.7 kn
From SW (223°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover24% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1018.9 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 9 kn · W 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Southern Cal: an underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.04 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.12 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 8% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Southern Cal by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Southern Cal, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →