University of California at Los Angeles '23
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.96 (fleet 2.69) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–29 (48%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 2 | 17–12 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 2 | 7–13 | — |
| Spring 2020 | 1 | 3–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (56 matches) the record is 27–29 against 24.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.5). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-08 | PCCSC Carter Ford Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.17 | 2.15 | 9–12 | 9.1 | −0.02 | 0.0 | 64% |
| 2023-02-11 | Mustang Team Race | skipper | 2.19 | 5.19 | 8–0 | 6.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.8 | 27% |
| 2022-04-08 | Carter Ford PCCSC Open Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.95 | 4.34 | 6–8 | 3.1 | +2.39 | 5.0 | 1% |
| 2022-02-12 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.92 | 0.35 | 1–5 | 2.2 | −1.57 | 1.3 | 98% |
| 2020-02-08 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 1.30 | 0.98 | 3–4 | 3.2 | −0.31 | 0.1 | 81% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
