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Mustang Open Varsity

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 19 13 32
2 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 20 25 45
3 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 26 24 50
4 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 14 47 61
5 University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 29 38 67
6 Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 42 38 80
7 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 37 59 96
8 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 57 44 101
9 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 47 68 115
10 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 67 54 121
11 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Mama Bears 70 53 123
12 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 77 48 125
13 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 65 73 138
14 Anteaters Anteaters Anteaters 85 58 143
15 University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 67 78 145
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 5 1 1 3 2 2 14 Marianna Shand '24
Emma Worthington '23
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 1 8 5 1 3 1 19 Grant Janov '25
Aidan Araoz '25
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 6 2 3 5 1 3 20 Kai Ponting '23
Maura Darby '25
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 4 4 7 2 4 5 26 Gabriel Reuter '23
Stella Potter '26
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 7 5 2 6 5 4 29 Morgana Manti '26
Ryan Mccarthy '23
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 2 7 4 4 12 8 37 Enzo Cremers '24
Ines Huret '24
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 3 6 11 8 7 7 42 Matt Grimsley '26
Patrick Gardiner '26
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 10 9 6 7 9 6 47 Florence Duff '25
Chloe Schofield '23
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 8 12 8 9 11 9 57 Jonas Holdenried '26
Lola Rao '24
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 9 14 9 12 8 13 65 Adrien Stroumza '23
Aidan Ramblas '24
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 11 10 15 11 6 14 67 Nathaniel Holden '25 [1-6]
Chloe Lighterink '24 [1, 5-6]
Cecilia Rothman-Salado '24 [2-4]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 DNF 3 14 10 13 11 67 Jacob Matiyevsky '23
Kenya Ochoa '23
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Mama Bears RDG 13 12 13 10 10 70 Alyssa Cunningham Barkus '26
Tessa Greene '26
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 12 15 10 14 14 12 77 Cassie Halaszynski '25
Audra Spokas-Jaros '25
Anteaters Anteaters Anteaters DNF 11 13 15 15 15 85
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 1 1 6 2 1 2 13 Gideon Burnes Heath '23
Teresa Dang '24
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 1 4 2 5 3 6 4 24 Noah Barton '23
Drake Coy '23
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 6 6 4 4 4 1 25 Max Case '24
Mira Shupe '26
Arizona State University Arizona State University Sun Devils 7 3 9 7 7 5 38 Mitchell Powers '25
Jaquelyn Quintana '25
University of Southern California University of Southern California Trojans 8 7 3 6 11 3 38 Edward Ansart '24 [1-3, 6]
Eleanor Desai '23 [4-5]
Ariana Gabier '24 [1-3, 6]
Jackson Mckinley '26 [4-5]
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 9 4 1 13 5 12 44 Lucas Elliott '25
Hunter Holguin '25
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 2 5 12 10 10 8 47 Zack Taylor '23
Nitsa Thotz '26
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 2 5 8 8 5 13 9 48 Amanda Brooks '23
Nina Folz '23
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Mama Bears 3 15 7 8 14 6 53 Sophia Jacobs '23 [1-6]
Madalyn Gordon '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Tammy Le '25 [3-4]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 11 9 2 9 9 14 54 Jonah Brees '23 [1-6]
Sara Camarero '24 [1-3, 6]
Aryaman Patel '24 [4-5]
Anteaters Anteaters Anteaters 12 13 15 1 2 15 58
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 13 14 10 12 3 7 59 Aivan Durfee '25
Aaron Shalf '23
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 10 10 11 14 12 11 68 Sienna Stromberg '25
Alyssa Shadduck '23
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 15 12 13 15 8 10 73 Max Lawall '23
Guillaume Collin '23
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 14 11 14 11 15 13 78 Samson Grunwald '23 [1-6]
John Flanagan '25 [1-3, 6]
Greg Griffin '26 [4-5]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils140140140140140140
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 1232323232323
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 2123123123123123123
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Mama Bears242424242424
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans373737373737
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies148148148148148148
AnteatersAnteaters Anteaters252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2282828282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3282282282282282282
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 1292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 2303030303030
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs333333333333

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Arizona State UniversityArizona State University Sun Devils140140140140140140
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 1232323232323
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears 2123123123123123123
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Mama Bears242424242424
University of Southern CaliforniaUniversity of Southern California Trojans373737373737
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies148148148148148148
AnteatersAnteaters Anteaters252525252525
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1272727272727
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2282828282828
University of California at Los AngelesUniversity of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3282282282282282282
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 1292929292929
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons 2303030303030
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs333333333333
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arizona State University Arizona State University Matt Grimsley '26 Patrick Gardiner '26
Sun Devils Mitchell Powers '25 Jaquelyn Quintana '25
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Florence Duff '25 Chloe Schofield '23
Mustangs 1 Sienna Stromberg '25 Alyssa Shadduck '23
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Kai Ponting '23 Maura Darby '25
Mustangs 2 Max Case '24 Mira Shupe '26
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Enzo Cremers '24 Ines Huret '24
Bears 1 Aivan Durfee '25 Aaron Shalf '23
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Adrien Stroumza '23 Aidan Ramblas '24
Bears 2 Max Lawall '23 Guillaume Collin '23
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Alyssa Cunningham Barkus '26 Tessa Greene '26
Mama Bears Sophia Jacobs '23 [1-6] Madalyn Gordon '25 [1-2, 5-6]
Tammy Le '25 [3-4]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Nathaniel Holden '25 [1-6] Chloe Lighterink '24 [1, 5-6]
Cecilia Rothman-Salado '24 [2-4]
Aggies Jonah Brees '23 [1-6] Sara Camarero '24 [1-3, 6]
Aryaman Patel '24 [4-5]
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Grant Janov '25 Aidan Araoz '25
Bruins 1 Gideon Burnes Heath '23 Teresa Dang '24
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Marianna Shand '24 Emma Worthington '23
Bruins 2 Zack Taylor '23 Nitsa Thotz '26
University of California at Los Angeles University of California at Los Angeles Jacob Matiyevsky '23 Kenya Ochoa '23
Bruins 3 Samson Grunwald '23 [1-6] John Flanagan '25 [1-3, 6]
Greg Griffin '26 [4-5]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Gabriel Reuter '23 Stella Potter '26
Tritons 1 Noah Barton '23 Drake Coy '23
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Cassie Halaszynski '25 Audra Spokas-Jaros '25
Tritons 2 Amanda Brooks '23 Nina Folz '23
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Jonas Holdenried '26 Lola Rao '24
Banana Slugs Lucas Elliott '25 Hunter Holguin '25
University of Southern California University of Southern California Morgana Manti '26 Ryan Mccarthy '23
Trojans Edward Ansart '24 [1-3, 6]
Eleanor Desai '23 [4-5]		 Ariana Gabier '24 [1-3, 6]
Jackson Mckinley '26 [4-5]

Conditions — 02/25/2023 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 83%  ·  Pressure 1012.3 hPa

Temperature

37°F
↑ 39°F   ↓ 31°F
Feels like 32°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
2.6 kn
avg  ·  max 3.9 kn
Gusts to 10.7 kn
From SSW (196°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover84% Sunshine8.2 hrs Humidity83% Pressure1012.3 hPa Rain0.04 in Snow0.50 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 6 kn · SW 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Cal Poly: a favourites’ day (+0.08)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.03 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.15 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Cal Poly by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 4 labelled days at Cal Poly, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →