University of California at Berkeley '24
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.11 (fleet 1.49) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.03 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 9–18 (33%) as crew 1–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 6–15 | — |
| Spring 2022 | 1 | 3–3 | 1–0 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (27 matches) the record is 9–18 against 5.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+3.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-08 | PCCSC Carter Ford Team Race Championship | skipper | 1.02 | 2.26 | 6–15 | 2.8 | +1.24 | 3.1 | 4% |
| 2022-02-12 | Cal Team Race | skipper | 0.74 | 1.16 | 3–3 | 2.5 | +0.41 | 0.1 | 50% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Invite | Skipper | A | 4 | 4.8 | -0.47 |
| Mustang Open Varsity | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.2 | 0.86 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.2 | 1.33 |
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | A | 5 | 8.0 | 1.82 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC Carter Ford Team Race Championship | Skipper | TR | 21 | 29% | — |
| Mustang Open Varsity | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.2 | 1.84 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | B | 9 | 11.3 | 1.00 |
| Stoney Burke Co-Ed Varsity | Skipper | B | 2 | 12.5 | -1.43 |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Cal Team Race | Skipper | TR | 6 | 67% | — |
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 12.5 | 0.54 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Frosh Soph | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.4 | 1.82 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
