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St. Francis Invite

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 14 19 33
2 California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 31 19 50
3 Rice University Rice University Owls 30 27 57
4 University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 34 26 60
5 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 31 36 67
6 University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 40 42 82
7 University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 57 42 99
8 University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 59 49 108
9 Aztecs Aztecs Aztecs 80 70 150
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 1 2 1 3 1 3 1 2 14 Nicholas Mueller '27
Mateo Krok '27
Rice University Rice University Owls 6 3 2 8 2 6 2 1 30 Ricky Miller '26
Aidan Murphy '25
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 2 1 7 6 5 4 3 3 31 Sterling Maggard '27 [1-8]
Kevin Gates '27 [1-5, 7-8]
Adalia Jimenez '25 [6]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3 4 5 2 7 1 4 5 31 Florence Duff '25
Claire Wiley '27
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 4 5 4 4 3 5 5 4 34 Carter Anderson '27 [1-8]
Conor Kim '27 [1-4]
Megan Amen-Kroeger '26 [5-8]
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 7 6 3 5 4 2 7 6 40 Braedon Hansen '25
Aryaman Patel '24
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 7 57 Grace Richie '24
Laurence Mach '24
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 5 7 6 1 DNS DNS DNS DNS 59 Enzo Cremers '24
Hayley Lai '24
Aztecs Aztecs Aztecs DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 80
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 TOT Sailors
California Maritime Academy California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers 2 2 2 3 5 3 2 19 Sam Jennings '27
Logan Chapman '26
California State University Channel Islands California State University Channel Islands Dolphins 4 3 4 2 4 1 1 19 Brandon Stadtherr '24
Seraphee De Labaca '26
University of California at Santa Cruz University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 5 1 6 7 2 2 3 26 Lucas Elliott '25 [1-4]
George Soliman '24 [5-7]
Vienna Lopez '27 [1-2]
Caden Domingo '27 [3-7]
Rice University Rice University Owls 8 6 1 1 1 5 5 27 Leo Marek '26 [1-2]
Arthur Unger '25 [3-7]
Taylor Griffeth '25 [1-2, 7]
Ahitagni Das '27 [3-6]
Cal Poly University S.L.O. Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3 5 3 8 6 4 7 36 Annika Burns '27 [1-7]
Colin Thompson '25 [1-6]
Griffin Vernon '26 [7]
University of California at San Diego University of California at San Diego Tritons 6 DNS 7 4 3 6 6 42 Alexis Gregorie '25
Stella Potter '26
University of California at Davis University of California at Davis Aggies 7 7 5 5 7 7 4 42 Alexander Lohan '24
Blossom Jee '25
University of California at Berkeley University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 4 8 6 DNS DNS DNS 49 Victoria Chen '25
Jake Cole '25
Aztecs Aztecs Aztecs DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 70
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2023 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears123123123123123123123123
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers202202202202202202202202
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins110110110110110110110110
Rice UniversityRice University Owls2828282828282828
AztecsAztecs Aztecs1515151515151515
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies148148148148148148148148
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons301301301301301301301301
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs3434343434343434

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B
University of California at BerkeleyUniversity of California at Berkeley Bears123123123123123123123
California Maritime AcademyCalifornia Maritime Academy Keelhaulers202202202202202202202
California State University Channel IslandsCalifornia State University Channel Islands Dolphins110110110110110110110
Rice UniversityRice University Owls28282828282828
AztecsAztecs Aztecs15151515151515
University of California at DavisUniversity of California at Davis Aggies148148148148148148148
University of California at San DiegoUniversity of California at San Diego Tritons301301301301301301301
University of California at Santa CruzUniversity of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs34343434343434

Conditions — 03/09/2024 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 76%  ·  Pressure 1021.7 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 59°F   ↓ 47°F
Feels like 53°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.0 kn
avg  ·  max 6.3 kn
Gusts to 17.5 kn
From SW (222°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine10.0 hrs Humidity76% Pressure1021.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 8 kn · SW 8 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at UC Santa Cruz: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.07
Actual: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.63 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at UC Santa Cruz by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 3 labelled days at UC Santa Cruz, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →