Cal Poly University S.L.O. '25
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.16 (fleet 1.62) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–12 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | 1 | 0–12 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 0–12 against 1.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-04-14 | PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship | skipper | 0.64 | -2.37 | 0–12 | 1.3 | ≤−3.00 | 1.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2025 Team page Season | |||||
| Peter Wenner Rainbow Invite | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.7 | 1.12 |
| Mustang Open Varsity | Skipper | A | 3 | 5.7 | 2.20 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 8 | 6.2 | 0.74 |
| Fall 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke Womens Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 2.0 | 2.31 |
| Stoney Burke | Skipper | A | 9 | 7.8 | 2.15 |
| Spring 2024 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Invite | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.9 | 1.45 |
| PCCSC South Designate Semis | Skipper | B | 10 | 12.3 | 0.89 |
| Mustang Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 7 | 1.6 | 2.21 |
| Mustang Open Varsity | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.0 | 0.96 |
| Jeff Simon Memorial Regatta - Open | Skipper | B | 5 | 8.0 | 0.70 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | B | 3 | 3.7 | 1.47 |
| Fall 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Open | Skipper | A | 10 | 9.5 | 1.24 |
| Stoney Burke Women's Varsity Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 1.2 | 2.02 |
| PCCSC Fall Women's Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 11.4 | -3.60 |
| Spring 2023 Team page Season | |||||
| St. Francis Invitational- North Semis | Skipper | B | 7 | 10.1 | 0.32 |
| PCCSC Women's Team Race Championship Women's | Skipper | TR | 12 | 0% | — |
| Mustang Women's Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 1.0 | — |
| Mustang Open Varsity | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.8 | 1.21 |
| (Day 2) Bryson Women's Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | A | 4 | 9.2 | -2.12 |
| Charley Dole PCCSC Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.2 | -2.34 |
| Bryson Women's Fleet Race (Day 1) Women's | Skipper | A | 3 | 8.7 | -1.36 |
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| Stoney Burke Women's Varsity Women's | Skipper | A | 12 | 3.6 | 0.57 |
| (Day 1) PCCSC Fall Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 9 | 12.6 | -2.41 |
| Fall PCC JV | Skipper | A | 2 | 3.5 | 2.82 |
| (Day 2) PCCSC Fall Women's Fleet Race Championship Women's | Skipper | A | 6 | 15.3 | — |
| Spring 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| PCCSC South Designate | Skipper | B | 10 | 14.1 | 0.33 |
| Mustang Women's Women's | Skipper | B | 2 | 7.5 | -1.80 |
| Bryson Women's Fleet Race Women's | Skipper | A | 8 | 8.9 | 0.75 |
| Anteater Open | Skipper | A | 7 | 10.0 | 0.48 |
| 2022 Womens PCCs Women's | Skipper | B | 10 | 6.2 | 0.99 |
| Fall 2021 Team page Season | |||||
| UCSD Frosh Soph | Skipper | A | 8 | 14.1 | 0.32 |
| Stoney Burke JV | Skipper | B | 9 | 12.2 | -1.03 |
| Fall PCC JV | Skipper | B | 5 | 16.0 | -0.50 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISSA | Florence Duff |  El Cerrito High School |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
